Nilanjana Sengupta
Straits Times Indonesia
Singapore. Although the Thai military has said it respects last Sunday's election outcome and will not stage another coup, questions remain about whether it can stay away from politics.
A veteran observer of the Thai politics military said Friday that the military, a powerful force in Thai politics, is likely to get involved at some point. The military has staged 18 actual or attempted coups in Thailand since the 1930s.
“It is impossible for the military to stay out of politics,” said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a former Thai diplomat and currently a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Iseas) in Singapore. “Military intervention is bound to happen. The question is sooner or later.”
Pavin, who had returned to Thailand to observe the election, shared his observations and findings at a seminar organized by Iseas Friday.
He believes the political transition has been smooth so far only because it is hard for the military to overturn the Puea Thai party's overwhelming victory. It won 265 of the 500 Parliament seats.
Still, Pavin will not rule out a coup or interference in other ways. “They can co-opt the 'yellow shirts' to take to street protests to contest the legitimacy of the government, create instability on the Thai-Cambodia border, or raise the issue of Thaksin's return or his proximity to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen,” he said. Yellow is the color used by anti-Thaksin protesters.
Or, he suggested, rivals can launch a judicial coup as they did in 2008, when the courts disqualified the Thaksin -linked government on charges of electoral fraud.
But there are some signs that the army may not be firmly united in opposition to Puea Thai and the “red shirts,” who back the party. Pavin pointed to the example of Puea Thai candidate Leelawadee Watcharobol, who beat her rival in the contest for a seat deep inside the Democrat stronghold of Bangkok. The seat was in Dusit district, home to many army units.
“It shows some signs of political mutiny inside the barracks,” said Pavin, “and also raises the question whether ‘watermelon’ soldiers will return to Thai politics once again.” He was referring to soldiers who sympathized with the red shirts during last year's protests, and were thus dubbed “watermelons” - green on the outside, with a red core.
7 comments:
Thai is still Thai no matter what-
but Khmer being is uncertain since CPP is steered by Vietnam while Khmer people are gripped tight by CPP.
The Thai armed forces must engage Mr. Hun Sen militarily while still have time. His administration must be taught a lesson, at the same time, we must have the temple back for the Thai people.
Let the UNESCO re-clarify on July 18. Using forces is not a good practice.
The matter is not to know if the thai military intervene or not. It is the certainty that the thai military are going to intervene in the thai politics.
The matter is rather to know if the red shirts are ready to defend this time by weapons their electoral victory in front of thai military.
Two scenarios are possible for the red shirts.
1) The situation in Ivory Coast.
2) The situation in Arab countries.
In two cases, the thai military and yellow shirts will try to expand in Cambodia, the future thai crisis.
Red shirts cannot alone win against thai military without external support.
WE ARE THE CAMBODIAN ARM FORCE ALWAYS WELCOME ANY THAI INTRUDERS.MAKE SURE DON'T FORGET TO BRING COFFINE WITH YOU,BECAUSE YOU WILL SWIM TO (CAMBODIA) AND DIE LIKE A FLIES.I'M ON BEHALF OF THE(CAF),I WILL SWEAR TO GOBUDHHA,I'M THE ONE GOING TO SACRIFY MY LIFE FOR MY MOTHERLAND BEFORE(MR,HUN SEN).BUT IF YOU GOOD AND FRIENDLY,I SHALL BOW MY HEAD FOR YOU BEFORE gods!.COLONEL(BORIDDTH.P.SARIKVANNAK).
ពិតមែន យោធាថៃតែងតែធ្វើរដ្ធប្រហារចាប់តាំង
ពីឆ្នាំ១៩៣០ រហូតមកដល់ឆ្នាំ២០០៦។តើនៅឆ្នាំ
នេះ(២០១១)នឹងមានធ្វើរដ្ធប្រហារដែរ ឬទេ?
ប្រជាជន អាវក្រហមបាន រៀបចំជើងព្រួល
យ៉ាងហ្មត់ចត់ទប់ទល់នឹងការធ្វើរដ្ធប្រហារពី
យោធា។
កងយោធាញញើតនឹងក្រុមអាវក្រហម ព្រោះ
កាលណាមានការធ្វើរដ្ធប្រហារនៅលើកនេះ
សង្គ្រាមក្នុងស្រុកនឹងកើតមានឡើងក្នុងរដ្ធ
ថៃនេះជាមិនខាន។
Because the former Abhisit government and thais military did not accept the electoral victory of the red shirts.
In case of coup to overthrow the Red Shirts , the yellow shirt have any interest to spread the thai political crisis in Cambodia.
These nationalists did not accept their political and military adventure against Cambodia failed.
Extend the thai crisis in Cambodia can divert attention from the thai public opinion and international opinion on the new military coup, to obtain the support of nationalists thai in the conflict with Cambodia and complicate a possible international sanctions ( UN, ASEAN…) after the new military coup.
For thai nationalists, extending the thai political crisis in Cambodia is not very risky for them because Cambodia is a small country militarily weaker than thailand.
Cambodia can only defend and not attack.
Because also to spread the thais political crisis to Cambodia, the thais nationalists can count on the supports of the political sworn enemies of Mr.Hun Sen's regime to destabilize its government.
The political provocations of some opposition politicians in the eastern border, the virulence of opposition attacks on the political management of the border with Vietnam, and political exploitation of the ideological rhetoric of the loss of Kampuchea Krom in some political speeches of some Cambodian politicians involved in this endeavor to destabilize the Hun Sen's regime and exploited by the thais nationalists.
But the important question is to know if the Thai people and especially Cambodia people will be misled and manipulated by politicians.
And whose interests these people can take of all these political maneuvers?
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