More confrontation is inevitable [...in Thailand]

July 1, 2011
By Thanong Khanthong
The Nation

On the surface, Sunday's election pits the ruling Democrat Party against the Pheu Thai Party.

Yingluck Shinawatra, who heads Pheu Thai, is poised to win the election. Most of the polls suggest so. The question is how big the Pheu Thai's margin of victory wil be. If Pheu Thai were to win an outright majority of the total 500 seats up for grabs, Yingluck would become Thailand's first female prime minister. Pheu Thai has been bragging that it can win 270 seats.

But if Pheu Thai can muster only 220-230 MPs, then the situation will become interesting. The Democrats will fight to hang on to power. The Democrats might garner 170 MPs in this election. Both Pheu Thai and Democrats will be locking horns to win support from the smaller parties such as Chart Pattana Pheu Pandin and Chart Thai Pattana. Yingluck has made it clear that Pheu Thai will not bring in the Bhum Jai Thai Party in any coalition government.

It could become a see-saw battle. The stalemate could drag on for two weeks or more if neither Pheu Thai nor the Democrats can win over the smaller parties to form a possible coalition government. In this scenario, the red shirts, who are waiting in the wings, will make their presence felt again on the streets. They have made it clear that they will not give in if Pheu Thai cannot form the new government.

The red shirts have twice resorted to violence in attempts to bring down the Abhisit government, the first time in 2009 at the Asean Summit and the second time in April and May of 2010 at Rajadamnoen and Rattchaprasong. They lost badly then. But the red shirts will come out again for a third time. If the scenario plays out this way, government troops and the red shirts, also backed up by the police and military factions, are likely to head into a collision course once again for a decisive battle.

As a matter of fact, the July 3 election is only a sideshow to a gigantic political machine, carefully crafted over the past six years, to overthrow the Thai establishment. The danger is clear and present. Thailand could possibly face a revolution under the pseudo names of "freedom" and "democracy". The force at work is probably trying to model itself after the "Arab Spring", the revolutionary wave of anti-regime demonstrations that has been taking place in the Middle East and north Africa since December last year.

In politics, perception is often more important than reality. Ten days before the Sunday election, WikiLeaks' cables on Thailand were spread on the Internet followed by a series of juxtaposed writings aimed at undermining the Thai monarchy. The timing of the leak was carefully orchestrated with other events to show the world that Thailand is a backward country ruled by an elite class that has no respect for freedom and democracy.

Over the weekend, Suwit Khunkitti, head of the Thai delegation, decided to withdraw Thailand from Unesco's World Heritage Convention. It was apparent that Thailand could lose territory if Cambodia succeeds with its proposed management plan for the Preah Vihear Temple along the Thai-Cambodian border. The World Heritage Convention has pushed hard on behalf of Cambodia. Immediately, tension at the border between Thailand and Cambodia escalated. Earlier this year, there were clashes involving troops from both countries. The Thai government, once again, lost out in international public opinion as the Cambodian propaganda machine cast the country in a negative light.

All of a sudden, Thaksin Shinawatra has been showing up on all the major global television networks to claim innocence over his alleged wrongdoings in Thailand. He has vowed to return to Thailand later this year. This can only mean that an amnesty plan must be passed first before his return.

Inside the country, the division is deepening, with reports of "red villages" in the Northeast. As Thailand heads to the polling booths, it is clear that the post-election scenario will be far from smooth. Having won over the global public arena, the political machine now plays two cards - Pheu Thai on the parliamentary course and the red shirts, again backed by the police and military factions, on the streets. In this case, another bloody confrontation is inevitable.