A Balancing Act in Bangkok

Thailand's Evita? Thailand's new Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. (Associated Press)

The new government's cabinet choices and policies must aim for stability

AUGUST 8, 2011
By PAVIN CHACHAVALPONGPUN
The Wall Street Journal
OPINION

Second, the new government should mend Thai-Cambodian relations. Cambodia, against whom Thailand has a border dispute, is the bogey different political groups in Thailand have exploited to stir jingoism. This has resulted in more clashes in the last few years. But now there are signs of rapprochement. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen just sent a congratulatory note to Ms. Yingluck on her premiership. Mr. Hun Sen's personal friendship with Mr. Thaksin will also prove useful in normalizing diplomacy.

Yingluck Shinawatra makes political history this week as she becomes the first woman premier of Thailand. Her Puea Thai Party won a decisive victory in last month's election, ending 32 months of the Abhisit Vejjajiva regime that were marked by violent conflict.

Public attention is now on Ms. Yingluck's vision for the country: Whom will she appoint to the cabinet and what policies will she implement? She is expected to reveal her ministers shortly. She has remained tight-lipped over her choices and has fended off criticism that her brother, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, is the real hand behind cabinet posts and policies.

Ms. Yingluck's primary task is bringing back stability. So she has to appoint a cabinet and implement such policies that both reward key patrons in the winning coalition and build a credible profile for the new government—one that doesn't lead the opposition to quickly cry foul.

Mr. Abhisit's Democrats are wary of the possible return of Mr. Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 coup. Hence the cabinet will probably consist of a mix of influential politicians with ties to Mr. Thaksin, as well as eminent technocrats and those successful in the private sector who aren't seen as close to him.

Experienced outsiders include the executive chairman of Siam Commercial Bank, the former president of the stock exchange and a former ambassador to the United Kingdom. Everyone understands the need for such nonpartisan figures, to enable the government to espouse detachment on key issues. According to a Puea Thai source quoted in the Bangkok Post, even Mr. Thaksin "wants those who can put up with criticism, who are certainly not 'hard core,' as ministers who will not incite violence and destroy the atmosphere of reconciliation."

Of course, picking outsiders won't make the cabinet lineup easy. Ms. Yingluck has faced immense pressure from factions in her own party and from other coalition partners who are infuriated about the appointment of outsiders. Red-shirt supporters think Puea Thai rode the wave of their powerful movement and are keen to see their leaders appointed to power. But this could taint the image of the government.

Ms. Yingluck will have to walk a tightrope here. She has a reputation for being patient, compromising and flexible; there's a good chance she could pull this act off.

But after this first act, there's a bigger task. Ms. Yingluck will be expected to tackle the country's pressing problems.

If her government implements three sets of policies wisely, she could see herself standing in good stead. These three are in the spheres of domestic economics, in addressing welfare programs; foreign policy, in being friendly to neighboring Cambodia; and in domestic politics, by promoting reconciliation among opposing political groups.

First, Ms. Yingluck will probably continue a number of populist economic policies that proved highly successful during the Thaksin years. She will move forward with a proposal to hike the minimum wage and also expand Mr. Thaksin's trademark healthcare scheme. Some red-shirt members already call her "Thailand's Evita" because of a populist platform that resembles that of Argentina's legendary female politician.

These moves are, among other factors, necessary for politics. This is what Puea Thai campaigned on, and Mr. Thaksin's cause of bringing mass prosperity to rural regions is what has broadened both political and economic power in the country. But Ms. Yingluck will have to be smart and balanced about the welfare schemes: She needs to further discuss them with state agencies and the private sector to prevent a possible backlash.

She should also go ahead with market reforms that will immediately better the standard of living. She has said that scrapping the Oil Fund, where the state pools money used for pumping fuel subsidies when international prices rise, was a crucial policy of her party. Because the Fund gains its resources through levies on different fuels, doing away with it would bring down the price of gasoline and diesel. Such reforms would increase public income and promote spending and investment.

Second, the new government should mend Thai-Cambodian relations. Cambodia, against whom Thailand has a border dispute, is the bogey different political groups in Thailand have exploited to stir jingoism. This has resulted in more clashes in the last few years. But now there are signs of rapprochement. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen just sent a congratulatory note to Ms. Yingluck on her premiership. Mr. Hun Sen's personal friendship with Mr. Thaksin will also prove useful in normalizing diplomacy.

Third, Ms. Yingluck should press ahead with national reconciliation. She should give the Truth for Reconciliation Commission a free hand to carry on with its efforts to determine the cause and chain of violence in April-May 2010 that left many red shirts dead. The truth, if arrived at without partisan strings, will provide much-needed justice to those aggrieved and could also heal political wounds.

Many Thais expect Ms. Yingluck to display her leadership and courage in addressing the difficult issue of social injustice and double standards, to heal the rift in their society. But there's a giant question mark about how she will shape her relationship with the military and the palace. The military earlier accused Mr. Thaksin of disrespecting the much-revered monarchy. Consequently, he was toppled.

If Ms. Yingluck comes across as a weak leader, she will be manipulated. If she becomes too popular, she could be eliminated like her brother. The trick will be to promote those persons, ideas and policies that attain maximum consensus and ensure all-round political and economic development in Thailand.

Mr. Pavin is a fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.