Yingluck 'faces many tricky hurdles'

August 1, 2011
By Achara Deboonme
The Nation

The July 3 election turned up with a convincing victory for Pheu Thai, but the party's strategist is convinced the road from now on will be bumpier due to high public expectations amid deep social division.

Still, with confidence that 70 per cent of election promises would be delivered, the strategist who asked for anonymity has convinced himself the party would definitely remain in power for years despite its "dark side" influences.

"The first battle will be on how to prevent Yingluck (Shinawatra, the younger sister of fugitive prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra) from being prime minister," he said, referring to the accusation of perjury and negative rumours on her birth history.

"If she rides through this and becomes prime minister, another battle could be ignited by the border conflict. We start to hear threats that if our troops are withdrawn from the conflict area along the Thai-Cambodian border, protesters will gather around Government House. This is [even if] the withdrawal is an order from The Hague," he said, shaking his head disapprovingly.

He declined to say whether these issues and criticisms over the party's economic policies were slowing the Cabinet lineup. Yet, he believed that whatever the stumbling blocks were, they were not strong enough to derail Pheu Thai.

"The voter turnout ratio [at the July 3 election] at over 70 per cent tells something. They love our policies. Even the clone could not do better, as they don't truly understand the philosophy of these policies," he said.

The strategist is convinced that of all promises made during the election campaign, at least 70 per cent would be delivered. Despite strong criticism, one policy to be implemented, no matter what, involves the minimum wage hike to Bt300 nationwide. Convincing him is the fact that the party has come up with all accommodating measures, including the corporate tax cut for profit-making firms and soft loans to small and medium-sized enterprises affected.

"Given that a fast food dish costs Bt40, how do you think low-income earners would survive? They need a pay rise," he said.

Another viable policy concerns Bangkok's mass transit, with a more integrated network and a flat fare of Bt20 per ride.

But what he liked the best was the farmers' credit card scheme. Olarn Chaipravat, a chief economist of the party, earlier said the programme would require the government's guarantee of Bt250 billion a year for those farmers who are buying fertilisers and farming materials on loans. The strategist felt this would win the hearts of many farmers.

"This deals directly with the dignity issue. Before, they had to go to the middlemen, begging for purchases on loan. Now, they can flash the credit cards for wanted items," he said.

Against criticism that the party buys votes with populist policies, he argued the party gives equal focus to the revenue side. All policies must induce growth in the economy, he said, so that future returns can match up with spending now.

He noted that the Democrat-led party stimulated the economy through its Bt2,000 cheques, but the Pheu Thai Party was not giving away freebies. What's required is a tweaking of the government budget, and elevating villagers' self-esteem.

For example, the Village Fund introduced under the first Thaksin administration was financed through the budget allocated for rural development. But instead of devising spending programmes, the central government handed over the power to villagers.

No matter how worrisome the border issue, he thinks it is necessary for Thailand to end its conflict with Cambodia. He noted that the issue at hand is the conflict over offshore petroleum exploration in the Gulf of Thailand, not control over a Hindu temple, the Preah Vihear. To him, there must be ways to undo the repeated wrongs.

Noppadol Pattama, former finance minister in the Somchai administration, played the wrong tactic in defending himself over the alleged betrayal [in the temple negotiations], as he should have referred his action to the Surayud government's resolution over the issue. Making things worse was the willingness of some politicians to play tough in this issue for votes at home, ahead of the election.

"Peace involves an economic cost. Without war, there are plenty of opportunities. We may need to revisit the talk over offshore territory that has been stalled for years… We'll overcome the obstacles," he said.

On the deep social rift? He said it would take decades to end debate over issues like what Thais learnt from the October 6 massacre. To end this, rewinding time is necessary but that is not easy. For now, Pheu Thai will concentrate on issues at hand, one by one.