China boasting lack of ASEAN concensus to confront China?

ASEAN's united front against China does not exist

September 26, 2011
Global Times (China)

The Philippines convened a regional meeting Thursday in Manila, pushing ASEAN countries to form a united front against China over the disputed waters of the South China Sea.

The Philippines has lost its cool over the territorial disputes. It clamors for a united ASEAN front to blunt China, which appears to be a diplomatic illusion. On significant issues concerning territory and sovereignty, China will not scale back its claims and submit to external pressure.

During the meeting, maritime legal experts neither endorsed the plan for joint South China Sea development, nor confirmed the legal basis for the Philippine proposal. Two ASEAN members, Cambodia and Laos, did not even send delegates to the meeting. Such facts demonstrate the lack of consensus within ASEAN. There is no collective will to unite and confront China, especially among those who have no part in the South China Sea dispute.

Before Philippine President Benigno Aquino III's current visit to Japan, diplomats from both countries had engaged in talks over the South China Sea dispute. Backed by the US, the Philippines now tries to involve more regional players like Japan to collectively check China. But such efforts will be fruitless.

Some regional countries may want to use the Philippines to balance China. But generally, the strategic significance of their relationship with China will overwhelm their need to play up to the Philippines. However, they will understand the potential risks if they become involved in the dispute.

Seeking a united regional stance to isolate China and, by doing so, win concessions will only prove futile. The Philippines has to return to bilateral negotiations over the disputed waters. The Philippines plays the regional meeting as a card. Nevertheless, if the Philippines really wants a showdown over the South China Sea issue, China has many more cards to play.

The ASEAN countries, who sent delegates to discuss the Philippine proposal, have their own anxieties and problems with China. They will not step into the conflict and conform to the Philippine requirements. Even the Philippines itself does not want its dispute to escalate. Just three weeks ago during his visit to China, Aquino stressed his desire for peaceful dialogue over territorial disputes.

The Philippines does not have the willpower to sacrifice its relationship with China and become involved in an armed standoff. Seeking ASEAN help to isolate China is pure nationalist fantasy.