The Nation
A return by the anti-Thaksin PAD, and its former head Sondhi, looks unlikely given recent developments
Under the Yingluck government, things are moving fast. Probably too fast for the yellow shirts to know how to feel. The new government's push for the release of the two People's Alliance for Democracy activists jailed in Cambodia must have presented the movement with a dilemma. What should the yellow shirts do now, when Thaksin Shinawatra, the Preah Vihear Temple and Cambodia are concerned?
Many analysts believe that the yellow shirts have all but lost their political clout, which five years ago was strong enough to precipitate the downfall of Thaksin. But whatever the real state of the PAD is at present, what happens next to Veera Somkwamkid and Ratree Pipattanapaiboon is unlikely to strengthen the movement. On the contrary, the PAD's key resolves - on Thai sovereignty, and on the issue of amnesty for Thaksin - will be put to serious tests if the activists win freedom in the near future.
There were signs of things to come after rumours spread on Wednesday that Veera and Ratree could be released as early as the next day. Moderate PAD leader Suriyasai Katasila praised the new Thai government for "giving importance to people's lives and liberty", whereas PAD hard-liner Chaiwat Sinsuwong described how the activists' freedom would be "a slap in the face of the Democrats". Those comments remain a far cry from being a demonstration of a debt of gratitude, but they reflect ambivalence that was never there before.
The PAD's transformation has been going on for quite a while, though. Two weeks ago, the PAD organised a concert that did not attract much media attention but sent out a significant political signal. The message came in one of the songs sung by PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul along with his supporters. Mimicking the classic luk thoong hit "Nam Ta Ja To", the song clearly stated that the yellow shirts won't be getting too involved in politics. The last line of this yellow-shirt song describes how they view their own political role and the current political situation: "We'd rather be up in the mountains, where we can watch the dogs bite one another," the song says.
The message has been collaborated by PAD's political behaviour of late. Despite some controversial moves by the Yingluck government in its early days, the yellow shirts have been considerably quiet. Sondhi's usual hostility toward the Thaksin camp has all but deserted him. The Astv website continues to draw anti-Thaksin comments, but they are getting fewer and farther in between.
To sum it up, the yellow shirts have been staying true to their pre-election vow. The movement withdrew from the democratic contest and instead chose to campaign for a vote of abstention, or a "no" vote. In a direct attack on the Democrat Party, the PAD said it was through with political fights that benefited people who did not make any sacrifice.
The PAD now says Thaksin is the Democrats' problem. What is getting increasingly vague is how much of a problem the PAD thinks Thaksin currently is. Clearer among the yellow shirts is lingering anti-Democrat sentiment, which remains evident on the Astv website. As far as Thaksin is concerned, he's probably looking at a truce between himself and the PAD.
The PAD's situation may become more complicated amid the new government's attempts to secure the release of Veera and Ratree. But no matter how much it tries to keep a low profile, Thailand's roller-coaster politics will sooner or later force the PAD to make a political stand on something. The Preah Vihear issue remains very much at an impasse, and convicted Thaksin is knocking on Thailand's door, eager to return home without having to serve a single day in jail.
What's next for the PAD? Much will depend on Sondhi, who has been forced to deny rumours about a secret deal between him and Thaksin. There are some analysts, however, who believe that Sondhi won't be the only factor in a PAD rebirth. The PAD, these analysts believe, can come back with or without Sondhi. That is possible, but, with the way things are at the moment, unlikely.
No comments:
Post a Comment