For Thailand’s New Leader, Floodwaters Present a Political Test

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra of Thailand arrived at the flood relief operation center in Bangkok on Thursday.(AP)

October 20, 2011
By SETH MYDANS
The New York Times

BANGKOK — Two months after taking office, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra faces a test of leadership that could shape her administration, surrounded not only by floodwaters surging against barriers around Bangkok but also by critics and political opponents ready to take advantage of any misstep.

Ms. Yingluck acknowledged on Thursday that efforts to divert the flood around Bangkok were failing, and she said the government would now attempt a controlled release that would allow floodwaters to drain through some areas of the city.

“Today, we have exhausted every resource we have to slow down the water, be they damming or water-retention areas,” she said.

So, she said: “I have decided to ask Bangkok to open all gates, which could trigger an overflow, in order to drain water into the sea as soon as possible. Floodwaters are coming from every direction, and we cannot control them because it’s a huge amount of water. We will try to warn people.”

The government had tried to protect Bangkok, the country’s political and economic core, by using dikes and runoff channels to force the water around it. But water has continued to push against barriers protecting the city, and some areas on the northern and eastern edges are already flooded.

“We need areas that water can be drained through so the water can flow out to sea,” Ms. Yingluck said.

It was not clear which areas of Bangkok might be flooded or how badly. But the announcement sent a wave of panic through the city and caused a run on grocery stores, whose shelves were empty of items like bottled water, batteries and instant noodles.

Faced with what some experts say is a hundred-year flood that would challenge any leader, Ms. Yingluck is a political novice working with cabinet members she does not know well. Her initial response as the rising waters moved toward the capital was marked by a tone of uncertainty and signs of disorganization.

She must also deal with divisions among her ministers, a conflict with the governor of Bangkok who is a member of the opposition Democrat Party, and the criticisms of a frightened and angry public.

“I’m begging for mercy from the media here,” she said Wednesday in an appeal to reporters. “Let’s set aside politics. We must work to restore people’s morale.”

Huge rainfall in the last three months, augmented by runoffs from overflowing dams in the north, have created floods that have inundated cities, obliterated rice fields and forced the closing of at least 1,000 factories.

The reported death toll is well over 300, with about nine million people affected and tens of thousands driven from their homes.

The economic cost is significant not only to Thailand but also to international manufacturers, particularly automakers and technology companies, which rely on the country to supply parts for products.

Ms. Yingluck, the youngest sister of the fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has faced questions from the start about her qualifications and autonomy. Mr. Thaksin chose her as the candidate of the political party that supports him, and he is believed to have selected her cabinet from his refuge in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, where he is evading a jail term for abuse of office.

Mr. Thaksin was ousted in a coup in 2006, but he has continued to exercise political influence as one of Thailand’s wealthiest and most popular public figures.

But if Ms. Yingluck’s leadership and policies have been guided, as many believe, from Dubai, the day-to-day urgency of the flooding requires the kind of quick and specific decision making that can be done only on the ground, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University.

“Her mettle is being tested, and it certainly will define her leadership,” he said.

One asset as a leader is an even temperament that can absorb criticism, Mr. Thitinan said, but Ms. Yingluck may lack the decisiveness necessary to control her ministers and make difficult decisions.

He said fiscal stimulus measures after the waters recede may give cover to some of the expensive populist policies on which she campaigned. But recovery is likely to overwhelm other controversial elements of her political agenda, like constitutional amendments and an amnesty for banned politicians like her brother.

Industry leaders have already said that the post-flood period will be no time to move forward with an increase she had promised in the minimum wage.

The government’s efforts to spare Bangkok at the expense of other areas reflect some of the national dichotomy of the “red shirt” protests last year in which members of the rural poor were driven from the heart of Bangkok after a prolonged sit-in.

That standoff underscored the “two Thailands” division that has emerged as a dynamic in the nation’s public life.

“Saving Bangkok at the expense of other surrounding provinces is a mirror image of the broader political crisis and the disparity between Bangkok and the rest of the country,” Mr. Thitinan said.

“Bangkok has gained at the expense of the rest of Thailand, and the disparity has accumulated over the years,” he said. “And here we have Bangkok being protected at the expense of surrounding provinces.”

Whatever their political positions, he said, the battle to save the city demonstrates that the affluent urban center is the priority for leaders of the government and its opposition.