Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra laid out a worst-case scenario as a deluge of water approaches Bangkok, telling residents to take precautions and expect low levels of flooding as a high tide nears.
“There is a possibility that the water will run through the center of Bangkok,” she said in a national address late yesterday. “The severity of the flooding will depend on the altitude of each area.”
Water levels in parts of Bangkok may reach as high as 1.5 meters (5 feet) if a major breach occurs in dikes to the north of the capital, she said. In most places, flood depths may reach about 50 centimeters, she said.
Diverting a three-meter-deep wall of water approaching Bangkok is key to sparing the city from the severity of floods that have inundated about 10,000 factories north of the city, disrupting the supply chains of Apple Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. The effort hinges on the strength of untested dikes, said Adri Verwey, a scientist who is advising Yingluck.
“The problem is the dikes have never been put under such high pressure,” said Verwey, a specialist with Deltares, a Netherlands-based research institute, who has been helping advise Thai officials the past two weeks with the support of the Dutch government. “Any dike system that comes under extreme conditions will show failures.”
Thailand’s government yesterday announced a five-day holiday starting tomorrow for 21 northern and central provinces including Bangkok to give people time to prepare for flooding. Commercial banks and financial markets will remain open, according to the Bank of Thailand.
‘Stay Outside’
“We are trying to encourage people in Bangkok to stay outside the city during this critical period when tides will peak,” city Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra said after Yingluck’s speech. A widespread evacuation of the city of almost 10 million people “is impossible,” he said.
Water levels rose further on Bangkok’s outskirts yesterday as about 4 billion cubic meters of water approached the capital from the north, Sukhumbhand said, raising concern that flood barriers may be inadequate.
“You need enormous intense surveillance to keep these things under control,” Verwey said. “If there are too many breaches, then you will easily have extensive areas with more than a meter of water in downtown Bangkok, especially Sukhumvit, which is very low-lying.”
The Chao Phraya river, whose banks are lined with hotels including the Oriental and the Shangri-La, overflowed in some areas after water levels reached a record of 2.30 meters (7.5 feet) above sea level Oct. 24, exceeding the 2.27-meter peak reached in 1995, Sukhumbhand said yesterday. Bangkok has an average elevation of less than 2 meters above sea level.
Airport Closure
Yingluck had vowed to protect airports, power plants and major transport routes from floodwaters that she said may take six weeks to drain through rivers and Bangkok’s 1,682 canals.
Don Mueang, the nation’s second-biggest airport and the site of the government’s flood-relief operations, was forced to close yesterday as floodwaters rose, said Kantpat Mangalasiri, the airport’s director. Suvarnabhumi Airport, the nation’s biggest, is operating normally, Airports of Thailand Pcl, which operates the airfield, said yesterday.
At least 366 people have been killed because of seasonal monsoon rains and flooding since July 25, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation said yesterday. More than 100,000 people are living in about 1,700 government evacuation centers, which can handle as many as 800,000 people, according to government data.
Economic Impact
The three-month-old disaster will cut about 1 percentage point from economic growth, causing the economy to expand less than 3 percent this year, central bank Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said yesterday. The budget for rehabilitation may exceed 100 billion baht ($3.2 billion), Prasarn said.
Companies including Apple, Toyota and Honda Motor Co. are facing the worst supply disruptions since the March earthquake that struck Japan. Thailand makes about a quarter of the world’s hard-disk drives and serves as a production hub for Japanese carmakers and electronics firms.
Toyota will maintain its investment in the country, Yukitoshi Funo, the company’s deputy managing director, said after meeting Yingluck yesterday.
About 9,850 factories in eight provinces have been flooded, said Chalitrat Chandrubeksa, a deputy government spokesman. The plants represent a total investment of 800 billion baht and employ 660,000 workers.
Thailand’s Cabinet yesterday approved a plan to provide 325 billion baht of loans to companies and residents affected by the disaster, and will waive corporate income taxes for companies in industrial estates for eight years, Industry Minister Wannarat Charnnukul said.
Water Shortage
The three-month-long disaster has severed road and rail links, destroyed crops and shut down some production of food and drinking water, disrupting the ability of supermarkets in the capital to restock shelves. Conflicting warnings about the severity of the crisis have sparked panic buying of water, eggs and instant noodles.
The government will accelerate imports of food, beverages and household items from Southeast Asian countries after flooding reduced local supply by 40 percent, Permanent Secretary for Commerce Yanyong Phuangrach said yesterday.
--Editors: Tony Jordan, Joshua Fellman
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