“No country and no region will escape the consequences of a serious downturn”
Reuters
The World Bank warned developing countries on Wednesday to
prepare for the "real" risk that an escalation in the euro area debt
crisis could tip the world into a slump on a par with the global downturn in
2008/09.
In a report sharply cutting its world economic growth
expectations, the World Bank said Europe was probably already in recession. If
the euro area debt crisis deepened, global economic forecasts would be
significantly lower.
"The sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone appears to
be contained," Justin Lin, the chief economist for the World Bank, told
reporters in Beijing on Wednesday.
"However, the risk of a global freezing-up of the
markets and as well as a global crisis similar to what happened in September
2008 are real."
The World Bank predicted world economic growth of 2.5 per
cent in 2012 and 3.1 per cent in 2013, well below the 3.6 per cent growth for
each year projected in June.
"We think it is now important to think through not only
slower growth but sharp deteriorations, as a prudent measure," said Hans
Timmer, director of development prospects at the bank.
The World Bank said if the euro area debt crisis escalates,
global growth would be about 4 percentage points lower.
It forecast high-income economies would expand just 1.4 per
cent in 2012 as the euro area shrinks 0.3 per cent, sharp downward revisions
from growth forecasts last June of 2.7 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively.
It cut its forecast for growth in developing economies to
5.4 per cent for 2012 from its previous forecast of 6.2 per cent, saying
expansion in Brazil and India and to a lesser extent Russia, South Africa and
Turkey, had slowed already.
It saw a slight pick up in growth in developing economies in
2013 to 6 per cent. But the report said threats to growth are still rising,
suggesting the outlook remained highly uncertain.
"The downturn in Europe and weaker growth in developing
countries raises the risk that the two developments reinforce one another,
resulting in an even weaker outcome," it said.
It also cited failure so far to resolve high debts and
deficits in Japan and the United States and slow growth in other high-income
countries, and cautioned those could trigger sudden shocks.
On top of that, political tensions in the Middle East and
North Africa could disrupt oil supplies and add another blow to global
prospects.
It said that while Europe was moving toward a long-term
solution to its debt problems, markets remained skittish.
On balance, the World Bank said global economic conditions
were "fragile and there remains great uncertainty as to how markets will
evolve over the medium term."
Developing countries
vulnerable
Against that backdrop, it said developing countries were
even more vulnerable than they were in 2008 because they could find themselves
facing reduced capital flows and softer trade.
In addition, many developing countries have weaker finances
and wouldn't be able to respond to a new crisis as vigorously.
China's growth -- forecast in the report at 8.4 per cent in
2012 -- could help bolster imports and gives it "big fiscal space" to
respond to changing conditions, Lin said.
"No country and no region will escape the consequences
of a serious downturn," the World Bank said, adding that now was the time
for developing countries to plan how to soften the impact of a potential deep
crisis.
A serious crisis would manifest itself in not just reduced
trade flows, but also reversal of capital flows, making it hard for countries,
especially in Eastern Europe and Latin America, who have debt coming due.
The World Bank pointed out that since last August risk
aversion to Europe has shot up and "changed the game" for developing
countries that have seen their borrowing costs escalate sharply and the flow of
capital to them decrease.
High-income countries have prime responsibility for
preventing a crisis, the World Bank said, but "developing countries have
an obligation to support that process both through the G20 (Group of 20 rich
and developing countries) and other international fora."
Among other things, developing countries "could help by
avoiding entering into trade disputes and by allowing market prices to move freely."
It also said developing-country governments should start
contingency planning to identify spending priorities and to try to shore up
safety net programs. Those contingencies should take into account possible
drops in commodity prices and a fall in capital inflows, the World Bank said.
The World Bank forecast is lower than ones from the
International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development, who last officially updated their numbers in September and
November, respectively.
The IMF, which has said it expects to cut its forecasts had
predicted world growth of 4.0 per cent in 2012, while the OECD had pencilled in
3.4 per cent.
2 comments:
នៅស្ងៀមដល់ណាទៀត....
ខ្មែរអើយ អើយខ្មែរ! ពេលនេះទឹកលេចដល់ច្រមុះហើយ!
បើយើងជាខ្មែរមិននាំគ្នារើបំរះ នោះទេក៏គង់តែយើងស្លាប់
ដ៏ដែល។ ដូច្នេះយើងជាខ្មែរត្រូវតែងើបឡើងទាំងអស់គ្នា
ជាមួយ កាំបិត, ពូថៅ, ដាវ , ខ្វែវ, ផ្គាក់, ព្រួញ, សរ, ច្បូក,លំពែង,ធ្នូ,ដំបង, ព្រនង់, កាំភ្លើង, គ្រាប់បែក, បេសែសិប, បេសែមួយ, មីន, មីនកន្ត្រាក់, មីនបង្កប់, មីនក្លេម័រ, មីនតោន, កាំភ្លើងធំ, កាំភ្លើងត្បាល់,ក្រោកឡើងជាមួយយុទ្ធភ័ណ
ទាំងអស់នេះបាញ់និងកាប់ក្បាលអាឆ្កែកញ្ជះយួនសងសឹក
អោយខ្មែរស្នេហាជាតិនិងដើម្បីការពារមរតកជាតិរបស់យើង។
Bad news for CSX cambodia's enfant step. She will cease to walk straightline. But humble, drunken limbing, and sideline steps.
Good news is that CSX still in premature stage of newborn...it can wait but suffer moderate malnutrition but not dead.
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