‘Make Or Break’ Dialogue

Tuesday, 10 July 2012
Zamboanga Today (The Philippines)

Friction over competing claims in the South China Sea promises to be the hot issue as the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) holds talks on Monday.

Manila is leading a push for ASEAN to unite to persuade China to accept a ‘’code of conduct’’ (COC) in the sea, where tensions have flared recently with both Vietnam and the Philippines accusing Beijing of aggressive behavior.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will join the ASEAN Regional Forum in Phnom Penh on Thursday, where efforts to ease tensions in the South China Sea will dominate the dialogue.

China prefers to deal with the claimants individually as it seeks to extend its writ over the resource-rich and strategically important area. ‘’This is make or break time for ASEAN members,’’ said Carl Thayer, a politics professor and Southeast Asia securities expert at the University of New South Wales in Australia.

‘’They have set this month as their self-imposed deadline to come up with a draft COC. There could be progress,’’ Thayer said.

China, Taiwan and ASEAN members the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, home to vital shipping lanes and believed to be rich in oil and gas deposits.

China recently angered Vietnam by inviting bids for exploration of oil blocks in contested waters, sparking protests in Hanoi earlier this month, while Beijing and Manila are locked in a tense standoff over a disputed shoal.

At their last summit in April, ASEAN countries were divided over when to include Beijing in discussions about the draft code of conduct, leading to a ‘’big disagreement’’, Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said at the time.

But the bloc is still hoping to reach an agreement with China by the end of the year, 10 years after first committing to creating a legally binding framework for resolving disputes.

US assistant secretary of state for East Asia, Kurt Campbell, said late last month he saw momentum on the issue after noticing ‘’an increase in diplomacy’’ between ASEAN and China on a potential code of conduct.

The US recently expanded military relations with the Philippines and Vietnam, and the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing will be ‘’the elephant in the room’’ this week, according to Ernie Bower of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Amid concerns that the US’s renewed focus on Asia could antagonize China ahead of a leadership transition this year, Clinton is expected ‘’to downplay US-China friction’’, Bower said.

Instead, she will ‘’be at pains to advance US-China cooperation as a main foreign policy objective’’, agreed Thayer.

With that in mind, Clinton may be less outspoken on the South China Sea issue than she was at a regional summit in 2010, when she angered Beijing by saying the US had a ‘’national interest’’ in open access to the sea.

‘’Don’t look for fireworks from Secretary Clinton in Phnom Penh,’’ said Bower.

‘’Look for quiet strength, behind the scenes support for ASEAN positions... but nothing overt or muscle-heavy from the United States.’’

Clinton will also want to reassure Asian counterparts that the US is committed to the region and is not just seeking to counter China.

‘’Secretary Clinton will endeavor to advance a raft of proposals to underscore that the US has much broader interests in Southeast Asian than military rebalancing,’’ said Thayer.

Her efforts will start even before she arrives in Cambodia, with a quick visit to Hanoi, where she will meet with US and Vietnamese business representatives, and a stop-off in Laos, where she will become the first top US diplomat to visit the communist-run country in 57 years.

After the security forum concludes, Clinton will lead a large US delegation to a business forum in Cambodia’s tourist hub of Siem Reap on Friday.

ASEAN comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- a grouping of nearly 600 million people from disparate economic and political systems.