An Exit Strategy for Hun Sen and His Cronies

An Exit Strategy for Hun Sen

and His Cronies

Pro Bono Wisdom for the CPP Elites

by Ms. Theary C. Seng, 22 July 2013

(a work in progress)

Before I offer my advice of an exit strategy to Hun Sen and his cronies, I'd like to address the grossly underestimated figure of 100,000 for the crowds that came out to welcome Sam Rainsy on Friday, 19 July 2013.

In 2007, I gave a speech at a rock concert in Germany before an estimated crowd of 80-100,000 large-set Germans, comfortably spaced out on a grassy field.  (Click for video and photos).

Now, compare this crowd of 80,000 with the DENSE, shoulder-to-shoulder PETITE-sized Cambodians lining the streets of Airport and the crowd in Democracy Square -- it's SIMPLY INCORRECT to estimate the Cambodian crowd welcoming Sam Rainsy on Friday at only 100,000. It was AT LEAST HALF A MILLION, if not a million or more!

In all seriousness, the best thing Hun Sen could do for himself, his children and grandchildren and the generations to come--

As well as, the best thing Hun Sen could for those within his inner sanctuary along with their children and grandchildren and the generations to come--

That is to say, the best thing Hun Sen could do for the personal LONG-TERM welfare of his family and those close to him is to undo the systematic damages of election rigging (what can be undone anyway within this month) and let the people freely vote their conscience for the CNRP.  This undoubtedly would lead to a landslide victory for the CNRP (in spite of the unequal level playing field of resources and media which couldn't be undone within the week).

Yes, let me repeat this:  It is to Hun Sen's LONG-TERM personal interests of survival for himself and his future generations, as well as of those around him, to lose the election by letting the people freely vote their conscience without any more rigging of the votes or vote counting, after undoing some of the harm which already have been systematically put in place.

Let me tell you why this would be the wisest and most rationale (even if at first blush it seems irrational) strategy for him, which is to exit legitimately via a lost election this July 2013:

1.  The Syria and Qaddafi Examples

2.  The Sam Rainsy Character (and the Union with Kem Sokha that will not break, unlike past unions)

3.  The World in 2013 (particularly in ASEAN)

4.  The Cambodian Population as Glimpsed into this Friday, July 19.

This Season of Discontent is here to stay and will only accumulate into the monsoonal downpour of more and deafening discontents. 

5.  The Judicial Equation:

Yes, on the one hand it opens up Hun Sen and his cronies to litigation.  But, on the other hand, escalating the matter into greater and greater violence will only provide more impetus and evidence for future litigation.  It is better to appease and to blunt any litigation with a legitimate election loss.  Loss of face is not an issue, as they have already lost face and will only continue to lose face with the growing animosity and vehemently growing anti-Hun Sen that is finding greater and more powerful expressions in more-difficult-to-restrict venues of social media.

6. Escalation leads to Cornering of Themselves into An-All-Or-Nothing Scenario Sooner or Later.

Better to exit than to push themselves into a corner where they risk losing everything -- not only their positions and wealth, but their very legacy and possibly lives.  Think Syria.

Seen and heard on Ms. Theary C. Seng's BLOG...