Cambodian Awakening

Young voters revolt against the Hun Sen government. Wall Street Journal July 29 ,2013 

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen at a polling station in Kandal province on Sunday.

EPA

Cambodian politics entered a new era on Sunday after voters turned to the opposition in surprising numbers. Though the economy is growing at a 7% clip and living standards are improving rapidly, a groundswell of dissatisfaction over corruption and land seizures nearly toppled the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) in the parliamentary election.

Optimists believe Prime Minister Hun Sen, a canny leader after 28 years in power, will use his narrow victory to clean house within the CPP and prepare for the newly competitive environment. The cynics, of which there are many in this war-scarred land, fear that the CPP will try to intimidate or silence opponents as it has in the past.

International election monitors have largely given up on poll watching in Cambodia, and it’s hard to blame them after irregularities in Sunday’s election emerged as they predicted. Transparency International Cambodia, one of the two domestic election monitors, says that citizens arrived at 60% of polling stations to find their names weren’t on the register. Others discovered somebody else had already voted in their name. Double registrations were also common.

Almost all the districts around the capital had more registered voters than residents, the Phnom Penh Post reported, and according to the National Election Commission, the government issued about half a million provisional identification documents, which were supposed to be reserved for those who lost their ID cards between registration and the election. Although the run-up to this election was free of the killings that plagued previous campaigns, Prime Minister Hun Sen warned of “civil war” if he lost.

Disenfranchised voters protested and even rioted in a few areas Sunday night. The opposition also cried foul, saying the election was stolen. Such claims can’t be dismissed. Transparency International Cambodia’s figures showed the ruling Cambodian People’s Party took 48.5% of the popular vote and the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party 44.4%. TIC Executive Director Kol Preap chose his words carefully on Monday: “This result does not necessarily reflect the will of the Cambodian voters.”

The opposition’s large vote was all the more remarkable because it has little access to the media and its best-known leader, Sam Rainsy, was allowed to return from legal exile only a few weeks ago. The opposition resurgence is due largely to a younger generation who refuse to be cowed or bought off. The one-third of the electorate under the age of 30 has no memory of the Khmer Rouge genocide in the late 1970s or the Vietnamese occupation and civil war that followed. For older voters peace and stability were paramount, but younger voters have higher aspirations.

The new Cambodians are also more likely to live in urban areas, as the booming garment industry draws workers from the countryside. In the city they are exposed to new ideas and technology, and they spread news back home. Despite per capita income of less than $3,000, Cambodians are sophisticated enough to understand the unfairness of CPP leaders dripping with gold and jewels getting out of luxury SUVs to distribute largesse in return for votes.

According to one government official, the CPP got its first wake-up call in last year’s commune elections. While the party still secured more than 97% of the top posts, support started to slip. Prime Minister Hun Sen urged officials to spend more time and resources on local needs. But tackling corruption in a government based on patronage is a difficult sell.

Hun Sen has positioned his sons to succeed him, but for now his ability to gun down the idealistic opposition is limited by his dependence on foreign aid. The Prime Minister and his allies have gotten a taste of the same awakening that toppled authoritarians across the Arab world, and whether he survives will depend on how he adapts to the new public demands for more accountable government.