Heaven's Mandate (expanded version)

Heaven's Mandate

by James Pringle| 17 July 2013

Phnom Penh, Cambodia - The Chinese call it the 'mandate of heaven,' that right - supposedly bestowed from above - of  emperors or communist party bigwigs that permits a leader to rule often for decades until, in the course of time, he falls or is pushed aside.

In Cambodia, that 'right' for the past 28 years has belonged to Hun Sen, an autocrat - he glories in the unofficial title of 'strongman' - who was placed in power by the Vietnamese army which invaded Cambodia in 1979 to oust the murderous Khmer Rouge regime of Pol Pot, during whose rule 1.7 million people died from a variety of reasons, not least plain murder.

Inevitably, as in all dictatorships, and in the nature of things anyway, a leader will begin to wobble and, in a drawn-out process, risk loss of power. 

That has not happened to Hun Sen, who at a spry 61 still believes he has many years at the helm as South East Asia's longest serving elected leader:  he had said, not necessarily as a joke, that he will be in power until 90 years of age.

But observers here say that, although the ruling CPP is virtually certain to win the forthcoming elections handsomely, there are intimations of a possible vulnerability that were not perceived in the past, and part of that is due to differences in opinion about the way ahead in the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP), the former communist party.

At the same time, this elections looks physically different from earlier ones.  Not least are the phalanxes of hundreds of free-spirited young people on motor cycles, waving flags with a rising sun logo which is also painted on the cheeks of comely young girls, and adolescent youths, who are loyal to the opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), a coalition of two parties which came together to fight this election in July last year.

Five years ago such girls and youths would have been spending their evenings over quiet dinners with extended families.  Now they're on the streets till all times with a burning political message of change.

They pass other groups of more regimented and less demonstrative young people in white T-shirts, who belong the CPP, and who are not allowed, they say, to talk to reporters - those who do have little to say anyway - and look like rent-a-crowds on a US$5 a day retainer, or at least something from the former East Germany.

As they cross each other in traffic they have themselves snarled, they - so far - good-naturedly hold up seven fingers, signalling the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP)  official number in the eight political parties taking part in the election - meaning they have to riskily take both hands off their motorbike handlebars.  The CPP supporters wave four fingers on one hand for their random number in the election line-up.

I don't recall seeing quite such scenes in the four previous elections that followed the defeat of the murderous Khmer Rouge.  Politics have come on to the streets, and people are participating in Phnom Penh as well as regional towns, like seldom  in recent memory.

And, as Cambodians prepare to go to the polls on 28th July for the fifth time since the demise of Khmer Rouge rule in 1979, some diplomats say there is a certain sense of nervousness within the upper levels of the ruling CPP.   Some even call this mood 'jittery,' though that is perhaps a little strong.

"It's stunning, exciting and difficult to believe," said one foreign observer here.  "But there seems to be a surge of support for the opposition."

Two opposition parties have joined together in order at least to try to dent the rule of the arrogant-perceived CPP.  The main opposition leader, Sam Rainsy, of the eponymous 'Sam Rainsy Party, has been pardoned by King Norodom Sihamoni for alleged crimes Rainsy insists were poltically contrived by the ruling party, and is scheduled to return from four years self-imposed exile on Friday to take part in in parliamentary elections which will challenge Hun Sen's grip on power.

The other is the Human Rights Party headed by Mr Kem Sokha, who has turned out to be a born orator, every bit as potent with words as Hun Sen;  both of them are able to talk to the mass of Cambodians who still live rural lives, in a way they understand.

The one year old coalition combines Rainsy's party, which has 26 seats in parliament, with Mr Sokha's supporters, who hold three seats but have a certain support in rural areas.

It remains to be seen how the two men get on together in the longer term, given Sokha's home-grown political succcess and Rainsy's long, self-imposed absence from the country.  Will there be a future tussle for leadership?  Or will the politically astute Hun Sen try to lure one of them into alignment with the CPP, as has happened in earlier elections with other candidates.

Hun Sen was initially opposed to the Sam Rainsy pardon, despite some support from within CPP ranks.  He resisted overtures from US President Barack Obama to have the charges against Rainsy dropped during a visit last November, maintaining that the issue was a matter for the courts.  The are, of course, also controlled by Hun Sen.

The CPP currently holds a virtually unassailable seats in the 123 member national assembly - four seats are held by minor parties - and is widely expected to be returned to power at month's end.  But it will most likely be with a slightly reduced majority, which Hun Sen would abhor.

"Even the loss of one seat would be viewed by him as a humiliating defeat, so he had better be prepared for some disappointment," noted one foreign diplomat.

The mandate of heaven can be a fickle thing....

But the CPP almost certainly will not lose the election, diplomats and foreign human rights long-term officials say.

This is partly because of economic growth, particularly in the countryside which has long festered in poverty, but which is now showing some results.  The current regime has built new roads opening up possibilities of transporting goods to market.  Schools have also been a CPP priority, and the opposition has not challenged CPP contentions that people feel they have more money in their pockets though there are still substanial pockets of malnution in the countryside.. 

What they haven't had is real freedom of choice; supporting other parties brings the possibility of missing out of good things in this society.

Signs of progress have, in the past, been accompanied by political violence, killing of human rights individuals and environmental activists, institutional corruption and protracted rule by the heavily-handed CPP, which controls the army and police too,  

Rural folks seem unable to distinguish who is grabbing their land and many say they will continue to vote for the ruling CPP.  In fact, is is the same CPP which controls the Khmer-language press and television, and the courts, through its entrenched party structure at hamlet level that is virtually 'lord high everything.'

Yet ordinary Cambodians have become more politiclally sophisticated, relatively speaking, and are beginning to ask for more a a share of devleopment and of a voice in running this country of 14.8 million.   "The opposition have fesh political ideas," noted one foreign economic expert.  "And people's expectations are growing."

The CNRP has a policy that appeals to people living on a low economic level.  It includes a minimum wage of US$150 a month and an old age pension of US$10 dollars a month, pathetic by standards elsewhere, but a boon to older people in rural areas.

For its part, the CPP might conrol every lever of power, and be behind land-grabbing, and selling off Cambodia's resources, but it is shown some signs of internal disagreement about the way ahead, diplomats say.

Some CPP high-ups were said to be not amused when Hun Sen warned recently, as he has in the past, that there might be a civil war if the CPP was not returned to power.  What does that say about the worth of free elections?   It was hardly helpful, as some in the CPP saw.

These other CPP figures are said to be weary of Hun Sen's boastful posturing and ranting, and the way President Obama seemed to be slighted when he visited the annual session of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) here last November.

Still, the ruling party, whose tentacles are everywhere here, is virtually impossible to topple at the polls in the short term.  But under the rules of the 'mandate of heaven,' as Mao saw, history is not immutable - a Deng Xiaoping is often lurkiing in the background.

But, in all of this, there is at least one positive development this time round,  from which all parties can draw some credit.  There has been seemingly very little violence in this election - at least so far - whereas campaigns in the past were marked by political assassinations, and general heavy-handed CPP rule.

Returning of politicians from political exile has always been fraught with potential danger in Asia, as history shows.  Provided Sam Rainsy's return from Paris exile goes smoothly on Friday, the campaign is likely to see less intimidation as in the past.

Bit by bit, civilised life in being re-established in Cambodia, at least for now.

(Parts of this article appeared in the Asia Sentinel).