[UPDATED] Ms. Theary C. Seng: "Royal pardon opens the door, but not time to let up on collective pressure or public monitoring of Cambodia situation"

 
សម រង្ស៊ី / Sam Rainsy

https://www.facebook.com/rainsy.sam.5

Here's one simple way you can help the democracy movement in Cambodia--what many are doing already-- change your profile to that of Sam Rainsy till July 29.

Just think of how freaked out this repressive CPP regime will be to see names from different ethnicities around the world with the profile of Sam Rainsy.

Think of the REAL INFLUENCE you have to protect Sam Rainsy and to strengthen his hands in the political negotiation that is sure to happen.

We have already seen the CPP juvenile, humorous attempt at deception with the Chea Chamroeun page. You have great CLOUT as the CPP and their children crave legitimacy and being "Liked".

It is indeed good news to hear that the King and the Prime Minister have signed off on the royal pardon which opens the door for Sam Rainsy to return to Cambodia without fear of arrest.

This, however, is only the opening of the door for Sam Rainsy to return; it does not mean that we should let up on our collective pressure and public monitoring of the Cambodia situation, particular via social media, including our non-Khmer friends from around the world.

Our influence is real, even if the media reports only the official pressure of foreign governments and international institutions.  Our pressure is REAL but INTANGIBLE and not official, thus difficult for the press to report it.

One, our collective pressure and public monitoring can help to strengthen Sam Rainsy's hands in negotiating whether the election result is "acceptably" "free and fair", and if deemed acceptably so, in negotiating the political posts, no matter which party wins.

A win for the CNRP is not impossible but a steep uphill battle as it has to overcome, among other systematic challenges--rigged National Election Committee, CPP control of all TV and most radio stations, the use of state ministries and resources for CPP campaigning in addition to the hundreds of millions at its disposal, etc.--the 3 million votes (out of the 8 million-plus registered voters) already stolen months before during the registration process and since.

The political negotiation will be a process of steps:

First, the terms of Sam Rainsy's return based on the royal pardon;

Second, whether the elections are "acceptably" "free and fair" if there is no reform of the National Election Committee;

Third, if the election is deemed acceptable, resulting most likely in a coalition government, how is the power to be shared.

For example:

Who will control the four most powerful ministries: Finance, Interior, Justice, Foreign Affairs -- to be idiotically divided within each ministry like during the CPP-Funcinpec government with dual heads, or a ministry to be completely within the sole control either the CPP or CNRP?

How are the other ministries to be divided?  The CNRP MUST negotiate for the Ministry of Education.  (To me, in many respects, this ministry is the most important!)

Will Sam Rainsy be running for a National Assembly seat?  Constitutionally, the Prime Minister is culled from the National Assembly.  No time before the elections to amend the Constitution (so that the Prime Minister need not be an elected MP) should his CNRP wins.  At the very least, Sam Rainsy will be deputy Prime Minister, which does not require an amendment to the Constitution.

Two, we need to monitor for assassinations of middle ranking opposition members or civil society voices -- as means to intimidate and threaten voters.

The Royal Pardon

As we know, politics anywhere is very fluid, a constant weighing of one's options.  The royal pardon had been sought, but it was never seriously considered by the CPP because it believed it had the upper hand over Sam Rainsy and no reason to grant it (politically speaking, as it's legally the King who grants a pardon).

The royal pardon was only seriously considered within the week and granted only within this most recent political negotiation, AFTER Sam Rainsy had publicly announced his return prior to election day.

Sam Rainsy's announcement, which the public this time deemed believable, created the snowball effect, garnering greater public support on the campaign trails as well as on the new, powerful social media outlets, and capped by the very, very STRONG condemnation by the influential US government, US Congress and other international institutions (e.g. Human Rights Watch, National Democratic Institute).

In short, it was the recent deafening crescendo of strong public pressure -- popular support for Sam Rainsy, condemnation of Hun Sen -- informally on social media and formally by the US Congress -- that tipped the scale for Hun Sen to succumb to granting the royal pardon.

Since Sam Rainsy's vow to return, Hun Sen's only rational option was a political settlement, e.g. the royal pardon, as the other two options of assassination or imprisonment would pose serious risks to his and his inner circle's political and economic demise.

Hun Sen was check-mated to grant the royal pardon.

Sam Rainsy's Immediate and Long-Term Position

"But Im Soursdey, chairman of National Election Committee, told Kyodo News on Friday that Sam Rainsy 'can join election campaign as can all ordinary Cambodians, but not as a parliamentary candidate because his name is not on the election candidate list of the Cambodia National Rescue Party.'

"The election law states anyone running for office who has been convicted of a crime must be pardoned or amnestied more than seven months before voting day." -- Kyodo News

If the CNRP wins, it will immediately need to amend the Constitution in order for Sam Rainsy to become Prime Minister, as the PM is culled from the National Assembly.

Now, as it stands, Sam Rainsy will campaign to strengthen his hands in the political negotiation that is to follow, in addition to the short-term negotiation that is under-going for his return, in order he can become at least deputy Prime Minister and for other posts for his CNRP -- political appointee positions in the various Ministries that are to be negotiated in the coalition government that is expected to be the result of the elections.

Theary, 10 July 2013 (updated July 12)

Seen and heard on Ms. Theary C. Seng's BLOG...