My Analysis of the Political Situation -- by Theary C. Seng

My Analysis

of the Political Situation

Theary Seng speaking at Fundraising Dinner for CNRP in Sydney, lending her support as civil society leader, with Sam Rainsy, Saumura Tioulong, Kem Sokha, Khmer Post Meach Sovanara, among the generous, active Sydney Khmer democrat supporters and hosts (Oct. 2012)

Sam Rainsy:

I will return to Cambodia,

and I will arrive

into our homeland

before Election Day

of 28 July 2013. 

Click to watch Video of Sam Rainsy making the public announcement on 6 July 2013

The heat is ratcheted up to its limit now on Hun Sen and the CPP with the impending return of Sam Rainsy back into Cambodia after 4 years of self-imposed exile. The announcement of his return has left the population momentarily breathless and the welcome can only be a frenzy of populous support for the CNRP.

The risk on his life is high, as well as on outspoken voices--be they in politics (most vulnerable are those below the rank of vice-president without the additional layer of protection, a western passport) or in civil society, like mine (not immune, but they will have to think twice) as the CPP now can be liken to a wounded dog who will attack. They need to send a strong message of fear, like they did in the cold-blooded, overtly political assassinations of Chea Vichea, Om Radsady, to name but two.

They, the CPP, have been restraint up till now, but they will act fatally, not necessarily at the very top leadership (save possibly Sam Rainsy, but only if they want to commit political suicide), but well-known enough to have the message resonate immediately.

BUT the only answer to FEAR and cowardice acts of violence is GREATER COURAGE and PUBLIC SOLIDARITY.

There is one difference from the violent times of the past: this CPP and their children who are coming of age with degrees from and connection to the West and are enamored with West, are more aware of the long arm of justice, timelessness of international law, social media multiplying power assisted with instant Smartphone images -- the ubiquity, immediacy as well as the eternity of unlimited recycled, unrestricted news.

If they choose the path of murder and assassination, they will have chosen an-all-or-nothing scenario, cornering themselves into suicide -- in all sense of the word, political, economic, social, and political.  Their more worldly, more savvy and more reasonable children will act as a restraint, we can only hope, as they have much to lose.

The scenario is not that of the 1997 coup and the ensuing events of the years immediately after.

One, there is now social media and its ubiquitous, complementary power of Smartphones to transmit images.

Two, the now young Cambodian adults (18-25 year old) were only toddlers then, not constraint by the trauma of the Khmer Rouge nor the politics of the 1990s.  Their world is one of inter-connectedness and information.

Three, there exists a much stronger international presence and international wherewithal of Cambodia, greatly assisted by the recent visit of Obama to Cambodia, as well as the raucous, unwanted attention of the Khmer Rouge Tribunal.

Four, if any violence takes place, there will countless thousands with the ability to capture immediately the images with commentaries on their Smartphones, in addition to traditional news outlets and film making.  Even if the CPP restricts ICT usage, the images can be perpetually saved for future usage.

Five, regional and international politics have changed dramatically within recent years.  ASEAN witnessed the reformation of Burma; the world witnessed the ongoing changes caused by the young and social media.

Six, it's true the CPP depends heavily on Chinese assistance, but they and the children are still applying for passports to the West.  It is not money but reputation and legitimacy from the West that they crave, even if they publicly deny it.

In sum, Sam Rainsy will return; his statement this time is no longer one of testing the water.

The CPP has 3 options: assassination to rid immediately of its most powerful political nemesis, imprisonment, or political negotiation.

An assassination comes with an extremely high risk and cost to the CPP, even if it is the most politically expedient -- it's own suicide -- and making Sam Rainsy a martyr, forever securing his hero status.

Moreover, they nor anyone else can predict the degree of mass crowd reaction, exponentially assisted by social media and a restless, fearless young population coming of political age.  As no one could have predicted the crowd mentality in other parts of the world -- from across the Middle East to Turkey to Europe, etc. -- so, no one can predict it here, even if we are not technologically as sophisticated as the other countries in the world.

Imprisonment also comes with a very high political risk and cost to the CPP, as the physical presence of Sam Rainsy in the country, will only ignite greater populous support immediately before and after the elections, eating into the CPP diminishing support.

The issue of Sam Rainsy did not go away when he was thousands of miles away; it certainly will not go away with him in the cell next door, with his supporters already riding on the elections frenzy momentum, with civil society abounding in presence, and with the international community's pressure and presence.  Imprisonment would be to prolong the CPP Sam Rainsy "headache" (migraine is still putting it mildly).

The only reasonable option is political negotiation leading to political settlement and compromise.  Politics is after all the art of the possible, and Sam Rainsy is shrewd in strengthening his hands in the process leading to this political settlement.

- Theary, Phnom Penh, 7 July 2013 (updated July 9)

Theary Seng proudly donning her CNRP cap, 7 July 2013

Seen and heard on Ms. Theary C. Seng's BLOG