Political Analysis and Petition
A Living Reflection
By Theary C. Seng
Here's one simple way you can help the democracy movement in Cambodia--what many are doing already-- change your profile to that of Sam Rainsy till July 29.
Just
think of how freaked out this repressive CPP regime will be to see
names from different ethnicities around the world with the profile of
Sam Rainsy.
Think of the REAL INFLUENCE you have to protect Sam Rainsy and to strengthen his hands in the political negotiation that is happening and will continue after the elections.
We
have already seen the CPP juvenile, humorous attempt at deception with
the Chea Chamroeun page. You have great CLOUT as the CPP and their
children crave legitimacy and being "Liked".
It
is indeed good news to hear that the King and the Prime Minister have
signed off on the royal pardon which opens the door for Sam Rainsy to
return to Cambodia without fear of arrest.
This,
however, is only the opening of the door for Sam Rainsy to return; it
does not mean that we should let up on our collective pressure and
public monitoring of the Cambodia situation, particular via social
media, including our non-Khmer friends from around the world.
Our
influence is real, even if the media reports only the official pressure
of foreign governments and international institutions. Our pressure is
REAL but INTANGIBLE and not official, thus difficult for the press to
report it.
One, our collective pressure and public monitoring can help to
strengthen Sam Rainsy's hands in negotiating whether the election
result is "acceptably" "free and fair", and if deemed acceptably so, in
negotiating the political posts, no matter which party wins.
A
win for the CNRP is not impossible but a steep uphill battle as it has
to overcome, among other systematic challenges--rigged National Election
Committee, CPP control of all TV and most radio stations, the use of
state ministries and resources for CPP campaigning in addition to the
hundreds of millions at its disposal, etc.--the 3 million voters (out of
the 8 million-plus registered voters) already stolen months before,
during the registration process and since.
It
addition to the stark, well-known tricks of election rigging on a
massive scale, let me give you a true example of how a seemingly benign
stealing of 2 votes per voting booth in one province cost the SRP a seat
in Parliament in 2008:
My
brother Mardi ran as the SRP number one in Svay Rieng and campaigned
hard -- first, it's his ancestral province; and two, to prove that it is
possible for the opposition to win a seat in this hard-core CPP
stronghold under the direct grip of much-feared (now deceased) Hok
Lundy.
Mardi
was confident of a win after his hard campaigning. Election Day comes,
the SRP lost the Parliamentary seat for Svay Rieng by the razor-thin
margin of some 1,400 votes; that is to say, SRP lost 2 votes per voting
booth among the 700+ voting booths in Svay Rieng in 2008. It received
40,606 votes and needed that 1,400 stolen votes for the Svay Rieng seat
in the National Assembly.
You
can imagine how an election monitor for a voting booth in Svay Rieng in
2008 could have thought: "Well, I only witnessed 2 votes irregularly
counted. Why make a fuss for two votes?" But that's one monitor
independently thinking this TIMES 700+ other monitors having similar,
independent thought -- leading to the collective loss of a Parliamentary
seat.
The political negotiation will be a process of steps:
First, the terms of Sam Rainsy's return based on the royal pardon;
Second, whether the elections are "acceptably" "free and fair" if there is no reform of the National Election Committee;
Third, if the election is deemed acceptable, resulting most likely in a coalition government, how is the power to be shared.
For example:
How are the other ministries to be divided? The CNRP MUST negotiate for the Ministry of Education. (To me, in many respects, this ministry is the most important!)
Will
Sam Rainsy be running for a National Assembly seat? Constitutionally,
the Prime Minister is culled from the National Assembly (Art. 119 new,
formerly Art. 100) No time before the elections to amend the
Constitution (so that the Prime Minister need not be an elected MP)
should his CNRP wins. At the very least, Sam Rainsy will be deputy
Prime Minister, which does not require an amendment to the Constitution.
Two,
we need to monitor for assassinations of middle ranking opposition
members or civil society voices -- as means to intimidate and threaten
voters.
The Royal Pardon
As
we know, politics anywhere is very fluid, a constant weighing of one's
options. The royal pardon had been sought, but it was never seriously
considered by the CPP because it believed it had the upper hand over Sam
Rainsy and no reason to grant it (politically speaking, as it's legally
the King who grants a pardon).
The royal pardon was only seriously considered within the week and
granted only within this most recent political negotiation, AFTER Sam
Rainsy had publicly announced his return prior to election day.
Sam Rainsy's announcement, which the public this time deemed
believable, created the snowball effect, garnering greater public
support on the campaign trails as well as on the new, powerful social
media outlets, and capped by the very, very STRONG condemnation by the
influential US government, US Congress and other international
institutions (e.g. Human Rights Watch, National Democratic Institute).
In short, it was the recent deafening crescendo of strong public
pressure -- popular support for Sam Rainsy, condemnation of Hun Sen --
informally on social media and formally by the US Congress -- that
tipped the scale for Hun Sen to succumb to granting the royal pardon.
Since Sam Rainsy's vow to return, Hun Sen's only rational option was a
political settlement, e.g. the royal pardon, as the other two options of
assassination or imprisonment would pose serious risks to his and his
inner circle's political and economic demise.
Hun Sen was check-mated to grant the royal pardon.
Sam Rainsy's Immediate and Long-Term Position
"But
Im Soursdey, chairman of National Election Committee, told Kyodo News
on Friday that Sam Rainsy 'can join election campaign as can all
ordinary Cambodians, but not as a parliamentary candidate because his
name is not on the election candidate list of the Cambodia National
Rescue Party.'
"The election law states anyone running for office who has been
convicted of a crime must be pardoned or amnestied more than seven
months before voting day." -- Kyodo News
If
the CNRP wins, it will immediately need to amend the Constitution in
order for Sam Rainsy to become Prime Minister, as the PM is culled from
the National Assembly (Art. 119 new, formerly Art. 100).
Now, as it stands, Sam Rainsy will campaign to strengthen his hands in
the political negotiation that is to follow, in addition to the
short-term negotiation that is under-going for his return, in order he
can become at least deputy Prime Minister and for other posts for his
CNRP -- political appointee positions in the various Ministries that are
to be negotiated in the coalition government that is expected to be the
result of the elections.
Theary, 10 July 2013 (updated July 12, July 16)
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