Friday, July 26, 2013

UPDATED: Exit Strategy for Hun Sen

An Exit Strategy for Hun Sen
and His Cronies
Pro Bono Wisdom for the CPP Elites

by Ms. Theary C. Seng, 22 July 2013
(a work in progress)
 
Theary Seng (L), Princess Soma Norodom (R) at VIP Airport for Sam Rainsy's return, 19 July 2013
6. Escalation leads to Cornering of Themselves into An-All-Or-Nothing Scenario Sooner or Later.

Better to exit than to push themselves into a corner where they risk losing everything -- not only their positions and wealth, but their very legacy and possibly lives.  Think Syria.

A couple of days after Sam Rainsy's rapturous welcome and before we could see the similar electric provincial reception, Kavi Chongkittavorn of The Nation wroteIn the final analysis, Hun Sen's Cambodia dares not jeopardise its current political stability and continued economic growth and investment.

Let me briefly illustrate what the next few weeks and months will look like when it is assessed that the CPP has won by grossly cheating the people of their votes.  Sam Rainsy will either outright refuse to recognize the elections as free and fair from barring him as a candidate as well as from the massive cheating or will contest the results in part.

Either way, there will be mass demonstrations.  And if the demonstrations -- which this time will have the energy of fearless youth coming of political age who will be easily convinced by the evidence that they been cheated of their voice and future -- lead to a political stalemate or impair the CPP's "victory" in anyway, the CPP will be forced to use violence.

But the problem with violence is that they cannot control the crowd or limit its effect.

And here is the clincher.  Any mass violence, unlike 1997, could potentially fall under the ICC jurisdiction.  They cannot limit the violence; it is a high risk they will make with any step toward violence, because they cannot limit it.  Think of Tunisia how one person set off a whole country's dignity revolution.

The Cambodian youth of today, as we have witnessed in recent days, are not of the same emotional fabric as their parents -- deeply traumatized, uninformed, hopeless.

And in all of this, Sam Rainsy, civil society and the international community will not sit quiet.

CONCLUSION: Election Loss Exit Means Survival and Potentially Honored Legacy

In sum, Hun Sen and his cronies are given the rare and best (among not very good, not many) options to exit via this election.  It is the most face-saving option, and potentially most  honorable in salvaging his goods and legacy -- in letting the people freely vote their conscience.

- Theary C. Seng, Phnom Penh, updated 26 July 2013

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Koh Tral Island must not be forgotten

By “any patriot Khmers”

Why do Koh Tral Island, known in Vietnam as Phu Quoc, a sea and land area covering proximately over 30,000 km2 [Note: the actual land size of Koh Tral itself is 574 square kilometres (222 sq miles)] have been lost to Vietnam by whose treaty? Why don’t Cambodia government be transparent and explain to Cambodia army at front line and the whole nation about this? Why don't they include this into education system? Why?

Cambodian armies are fighting at front line for 4.6 km2 on the Thai border and what's about over 30,000km2 of Cambodia to Vietnam. Nobody dare to talk about it! Why? Cambodian armies you are decide the fate of your nation, Cambodian army as well as Cambodian people must rethink about this again and again. Is it fair?

Koh Tral Island, the sea and land area of over 30,000 square kilometres have been lost to Vietnam by the 1979 to 1985 treaties. The Cambodian army at front line as well as all Cambodian people must rethink again about these issues. Are Cambodian army fighting to protect the Cambodia Nation or protecting a very small group that own big lands, big properties or only protecting a small group but disguising as protecting the Khmer nation?

The Cambodian army at front lines suffer under rain, wind, bullets, bombs, lack of foods, lack of nutrition and their families have no health care assistance, no securities after they died but a very small group eat well, sleep well, sleep in first class hotel with air conditioning system with message from young girls, have first class medical care from oversea medical treatments, they are billionaires, millionaires who sell out the country to be rich and make the Cambodian people suffer everyday.

Who signed the treaty 1979-1985 that resulted in the loss over 30,000 km2 of Cambodia??? Why they are not being transparent and brave enough to inform all Cambodians and Cambodian army at front line about these issues? Why don't they include Koh Tral (Koh Tral size is bigger than the whole Phom Phen and bigger than Singapore [Note: Singapore's present land size is 704 km2 (271.8 sq mi)]) with heap of great natural resources, in the Cambodian education system?

Look at Hun Sen's families, relatives and friends- they are billionaires, millionaires. Where did they get the money from when we all just got out of war with empty hands [in 1979]? Hun Sen always say in his speeches that Cambodia had just risen up from the ashes of war, just got up from Year Zero with empty hands and how come they are billionaires, millionaires but 90% of innocent Cambodian people are so poor and struggling with their livelihood every day?

Anonymous said...

Yes, Hun sen knew from day one of his Vietnamese appointment that Khmer do not like him that's why he kills, threatens and bribes just so he can stay in his position of power. That's why he has blood on his hands and shit on his feet.

It's a shame he does not have the intelligence to implement genuine change in his behaviour to a more favourable one.

Real shame that no one close to him cares and dedicate enough to give him advise with any wisdom in it.

It's additional shame that his communist ideology makes him lose his religious believes, because, any good monks would advise him that when you cause suffering to others this will not bring peace to your life (karma).

In the end he has to go as Mr. Rohrabacher has said, if he is stupid enough to fight this he will go the same way as other dictators before him.

9:11 PM
Anonymous said...

You all heard what Congressman Rohrabacher said :
'Hun Sen has to go, he has been in power too long!, if he still holds on to his position of power after this election, he will be under close scrutiny'.

You know what that means 'under close scrutiny'?

It means America will investigate everything about the Hun sen's empire, including his associations (no matter where they are), all his money -how much he has, where he got it from, who he killed, who he slept with - yes the lot!

America can do this, we know what happened when they investigated the 911 terrorist attacks, the whole world knew everything about those terrorists - how, where, what, when, who and why.

We remember when America froze assets of those suspected association of these terrorists? Some of Hun sen's cronies had their assets frozen too at that time.

The aid money from America, Australia and EU came from their tax payers -their people. I'm sure they'd like to know what Hun sen did with all their money because Cambodia is not a developed country and the general population are still suffering.

So go ahead Hun sen, cheat all you want and continue to be greedy for power. I for one would like to know how much you and your cronies have in all your bank accounts, how you got it, what you use it for, what you've been up to, who and how you've killed. It would be interesting.

9:21 PM
Anonymous said...

You see!, under Sam Rainsy's competent leadership- even a dictator (vicious human being) has a choice of how he can go.....

Hun sen's smart way to go:
-Accept your errors and take accountability.
-Accept the people's choice as who their leader should be and support that leader by giving your co-operation.
(This is the Khmer love Khmer way to go).

Hun sen's stupid way to go...:
- continue to be arrogant, deceitful, bribe, threaten and kill. Then you will go .... Just like other dictators ... Gadafi, Saddam (just to name a few).
(Of course, you should know that this is what yuens want -division so that they can sabotage, the damage is Khmer kill Khmer ). You have intelligence then don't fall for Hanoi's primitive dirty trick.

CNRP knew exactly what they are doing when they announced 'we won't take any Khmer as our enemy' and they meant it!!!

Khmer love Khmer
In memory of Lok Tar Sen Koy

Anonymous said...

To all those serving CCP, you now see your masters are making exit plans. Don't stay with them and serve them anymore. In the end they leave you to suffer - they will not look after you!! Don't be a fool.

Don't threaten or hurt Khmer at the command of your CPP masters anymore. You remember what happened to those who murdered others because Hun sen hired them to do it. They were fed to Hun sen's crocodiles so he can get rid of evidence of the murderous act Hun sen or his cronies committed. What's the money for if you can't take it with you when you die?

Save your country and other Khmers from suffering, give them a chance to prosper..

Anonymous said...

Yep! Why greedy,when you die ,you can't get your money with you anyway? Your sons and daughters have their own ways of making money with honesty and decency without hurting anyone,we all khmers must stop being slave to Yuon Hanoi and Chen Beijing.These two races were destroyed and destructed Khmer for haft century now,its time to stop let'em!...Khmer loves Khmer,Khmer help Khmer! Don't trust Siam nor Yuon nor Chen,they all used Khmer for their benefit.Cpp must go with peace,learn from Arabian country,it just a matter of time your regime will reduce to nothing,stop killing khmers for Yuon any more,its time to take exit now,don't let these people force you out like Arabian's countries.Hun sen for the sake of your kids please leave with peace,think about your kids's future they have their future ahead of them,they can be prime minister one day,you don't have to worry about them,if you don't exit with peace you ruin their future, its something for you to think about it Mr Hun sen!

Prahok

Anonymous said...

NIGHTMARE FINALLY OVER FOLKS!!!

Anonymous said...

Long Live Viet Nam and Long Live Hun Sen and CPP...

We will killed all of you useless human.. we prepared 3 billion dollars after the election if you not joint the government... We prepared snipers forces to kills all of you and we prepared secret forces if you protest after election ... at the end we will kills all of you..

You will not get free and fair election ... because we deleted more then 1millions voters and we have more then 1 millions ghost voters and other.. so lost just with this ... CPP already won 25% just from this .. This election we will win 90 seats or more ...

Long live Viet Nam and CPP and Hun Sen...

U will never see Khmer Prime Minister only Viet Nam approved one or Vietnamese bloods ... You are all useless khmer and should never live .. soon your country will be our NEW PROVINCE ....

Anonymous said...

Koh Tral Island must not be forgotten

By “any patriot Khmers”

Why do Koh Tral Island, known in Vietnam as Phu Quoc, a sea and land area covering proximately over 30,000 km2 [Note: the actual land size of Koh Tral itself is 574 square kilometres (222 sq miles)] have been lost to Vietnam by whose treaty? Why don’t Cambodia government be transparent and explain to Cambodia army at front line and the whole nation about this? Why don't they include this into education system? Why?

Cambodian armies are fighting at front line for 4.6 km2 on the Thai border and what's about over 30,000km2 of Cambodia to Vietnam. Nobody dare to talk about it! Why? Cambodian armies you are decide the fate of your nation, Cambodian army as well as Cambodian people must rethink about this again and again. Is it fair?

Koh Tral Island, the sea and land area of over 30,000 square kilometres have been lost to Vietnam by the 1979 to 1985 treaties. The Cambodian army at front line as well as all Cambodian people must rethink again about these issues. Are Cambodian army fighting to protect the Cambodia Nation or protecting a very small group that own big lands, big properties or only protecting a small group but disguising as protecting the Khmer nation?

The Cambodian army at front lines suffer under rain, wind, bullets, bombs, lack of foods, lack of nutrition and their families have no health care assistance, no securities after they died but a very small group eat well, sleep well, sleep in first class hotel with air conditioning system with message from young girls, have first class medical care from oversea medical treatments, they are billionaires, millionaires who sell out the country to be rich and make the Cambodian people suffer everyday.

Who signed the treaty 1979-1985 that resulted in the loss over 30,000 km2 of Cambodia??? Why they are not being transparent and brave enough to inform all Cambodians and Cambodian army at front line about these issues? Why don't they include Koh Tral (Koh Tral size is bigger than the whole Phom Phen and bigger than Singapore [Note: Singapore's present land size is 704 km2 (271.8 sq mi)]) with heap of great natural resources, in the Cambodian education system?

Look at Hun Sen's families, relatives and friends- they are billionaires, millionaires. Where did they get the money from when we all just got out of war with empty hands [in 1979]? Hun Sen always say in his speeches that Cambodia had just risen up from the ashes of war, just got up from Year Zero with empty hands and how come they are billionaires, millionaires but 90% of innocent Cambodian people are so poor and struggling with their livelihood every day?

Anonymous said...

Koh Tral Island must not be forgotten

By “any patriot Khmers”

Why do Koh Tral Island, known in Vietnam as Phu Quoc, a sea and land area covering proximately over 30,000 km2 [Note: the actual land size of Koh Tral itself is 574 square kilometres (222 sq miles)] have been lost to Vietnam by whose treaty? Why don’t Cambodia government be transparent and explain to Cambodia army at front line and the whole nation about this? Why don't they include this into education system? Why?

Cambodian armies are fighting at front line for 4.6 km2 on the Thai border and what's about over 30,000km2 of Cambodia to Vietnam. Nobody dare to talk about it! Why? Cambodian armies you are decide the fate of your nation, Cambodian army as well as Cambodian people must rethink about this again and again. Is it fair?

Koh Tral Island, the sea and land area of over 30,000 square kilometres have been lost to Vietnam by the 1979 to 1985 treaties. The Cambodian army at front line as well as all Cambodian people must rethink again about these issues. Are Cambodian army fighting to protect the Cambodia Nation or protecting a very small group that own big lands, big properties or only protecting a small group but disguising as protecting the Khmer nation?

The Cambodian army at front lines suffer under rain, wind, bullets, bombs, lack of foods, lack of nutrition and their families have no health care assistance, no securities after they died but a very small group eat well, sleep well, sleep in first class hotel with air conditioning system with message from young girls, have first class medical care from oversea medical treatments, they are billionaires, millionaires who sell out the country to be rich and make the Cambodian people suffer everyday.

Who signed the treaty 1979-1985 that resulted in the loss over 30,000 km2 of Cambodia??? Why they are not being transparent and brave enough to inform all Cambodians and Cambodian army at front line about these issues? Why don't they include Koh Tral (Koh Tral size is bigger than the whole Phom Phen and bigger than Singapore [Note: Singapore's present land size is 704 km2 (271.8 sq mi)]) with heap of great natural resources, in the Cambodian education system?

Look at Hun Sen's families, relatives and friends- they are billionaires, millionaires. Where did they get the money from when we all just got out of war with empty hands [in 1979]? Hun Sen always say in his speeches that Cambodia had just risen up from the ashes of war, just got up from Year Zero with empty hands and how come they are billionaires, millionaires but 90% of innocent Cambodian people are so poor and struggling with their livelihood every day?

Anonymous said...

The time comes for Preah Bath Dharmeuk era! Neak Ta's time is up! Nothing can change the course of the five hundred-year-old Buddha-inspired prophecy! What is supposed to manifest will be fulfilled!

Prey Nokor Rolom, Phnom-Penh Roleay, Bangkok Kchhat Kchhay,Sabbay Angkor Wat!

Jayo Khmer Ankors!