An EXIT STRATEGY for Hun Sen and the CPP (Theary C. Seng)

An Exit Strategy for Hun Sen

and His Cronies

Pro Bono Wisdom for the CPP Elites

by Ms. Theary C. Seng, 22 July 2013

(a work in progress)

In all seriousness, the best thing Hun Sen could do for himself, his children and grandchildren and the generations to come--

As well as, the best thing Hun Sen could for those within his inner sanctuary, along with their children and grandchildren and the generations to come--

That is to say, the best thing Hun Sen could do for the personal LONG-TERM welfare of his family and those close to him is to undo the systematic damages of gross election rigging (what can be undone anyway within this month) and let the people freely vote their conscience for the CNRP. This undoubtedly would lead to a landslide victory for the CNRP (in spite of the unequal level playing field of resources and media which couldn't be undone within the week).

Yes, let me repeat this: It is to Hun Sen's LONG-TERM personal interests of survival for himself and his future generations, as well as of those around him, to lose the election by letting the people freely vote their conscience without any more rigging of the votes or vote counting, after undoing some of the harm which already have been systematically put in place.

(I am speaking now in HIS INTERESTS based on what I know of our society and the fast-changing world, and in light of what I've witnessed of past elections and of recent days, and of what I know intuitively of all the factors enumerated below.)

Let me tell you why this would be the wisest and most rationale (even if at first blush it seems irrational and naive) strategy for him, which is to exit legitimately via a lost election this July 2013:

1. The Syria and Qaddafi Examples

2. The Sam Rainsy Character (and the Union with Kem Sokha that will not break, unlike past unions)

Let me tell you in sum what I know of Sam Rainsy since I've heard of him in 1994 and known him in 1995, and since have befriended him (me, as a nationalist) and have studied him (me, as a political scientist, as it was a student at Georgetown University when I first met him):

Sam Rainsy is not going to back down. Period. Especially after the rapturous hero's welcome reflecting his popularity, with this popularity cutting across the provinces. He has the people behind him -- no longer the SILENT majority, but loud, vivacious youth who are coming of political age in the social media era. This is his moment, his only moment. The accumulation of his decades of sacrificing and struggling for Cambodia politically.

It is also Cambodia's moment. And he knows it. He is a student of history. He is a student of Cambodia history. He is a student of world history.

As much as many other leaders exist, most due to open space and conditions he helped to create since UNTAC, they still possess great limitations and cannot compare to him (or his wife Saumura) in terms of soft and hard skills.

3. The World in 2013 (particularly in ASEAN)

For all Burma's paranoia and delusion of the North Korea brand, a sliver of rationality pierced through to the heart and mind of the president and after weighing his options, he wisely chose the conciliatory and reform process for Burma.

Hun Sen can learn from his next-door dictator.

4. The Cambodian Population as Glimpsed into this Friday, July 19.

This Season of Discontent is here to stay and will only accumulate into the monsoonal downpour of more and deafening discontents.

5. The Judicial Equation:

Yes, on the one hand it opens up Hun Sen and his cronies to litigation. But, on the other hand, escalating the matter into greater and greater violence will only provide more impetus and evidence for future litigation. 

It is better to appease and to blunt any litigation with a legitimate election loss. Loss of face is not an issue, as they have already lost face and will only continue to lose face with the growing animosity and vehemently growing anti-Hun Sen sentiments that is finding greater and more powerful expressions in more-difficult-to-restrict venues of social media.

They, the CPP, must also keep in mind that whatever violence they commit could fall under the power of the International Criminal Court, which has the temporal jurisdiction to prosecute crimes committed on or after 1 July 2002.

Within recent days, there's growing talk about the use of force or a military coup should the CNRP win the elections. It's understandable even if it's deplorable that the CPP should use this scare tactics of civil war. But seasoned correspondents are also reporting of the possibility of a coup similar to 1997 -- a good remind for caution, but unrealistic.

The main reason the CPP will not exact mass violence similar to 1997 is the INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT. If we can try the Khmer Rouge leaders of crimes committed 35 years ago when international law was still nascent (as it only proliferated in the 1990s), with no social media and limited evidence, then be sure of this: we can try crimes committed in the glare of thousands capturing images for evidence -- maybe not immediately or the year after, or even the decade after... It may be 3 decades after like the Khmer Rouge, but it will happen.

Hun Manet and Hun Manit and their generation know this. The generals of the 1997 may be in their 60s, 70s and some 80s years of age, but these younger generals and political leaders know they will be held legally responsible -- maybe not immediately, but later -- for these crimes.

6. Escalation leads to Cornering of Themselves into An-All-Or-Nothing Scenario Sooner or Later.

Better to exit than to push themselves into a corner where they risk losing everything -- not only their positions and wealth, but their very legacy and possibly lives. Think Syria.

A couple of days after Sam Rainsy's rapturous welcome and before we could see the similar electrified provincial reception, Kavi Chongkittavorn of The Nation wrote: In the final analysis, Hun Sen's Cambodia dares not jeopardise its current political stability and continued economic growth and investment.

Let me briefly illustrate what the next few weeks and months will look like when it is assessed that the CPP has won by grossly cheating the people of their votes. Sam Rainsy will either outright refuse to recognize the elections as free and fair from barring him as a candidate as well as from the massive cheating or will contest the results in part.

Either way, there will be mass demonstrations. And if the demonstrations -- which this time will have the energy of fearless youth coming of political age who will be easily convinced by the evidence that they been cheated of their voice and future -- lead to a political stalemate or impair the CPP's "victory" in anyway, the CPP will be forced to use violence.

But the problem with violence is that they cannot control the crowd or limit its effect.

And here is the clincher. Any mass violence, unlike 1997, could potentially fall under the ICC jurisdiction. They cannot limit the violence; it is a high risk they will make with any step toward violence, because they cannot limit it. Think of Tunisia, how one person set off a whole country's dignity revolution.

The Cambodian youth of today, as we have witnessed in recent days, are not of the same emotional fabric as their parents -- deeply traumatized, uninformed, hopeless.

And in all of this, Sam Rainsy, civil society and the international community will not sit quiet.

CONCLUSION: Election Loss Exit Means Survival and Potentially Honored Legacy

In sum, Hun Sen and his cronies are given the rare and best (among not very good, not many) options to exit via this election. It is the most face-saving option, and potentially most honorable in salvaging their goods and legacy -- in letting the people freely vote their conscience.

- Theary C. Seng, Phnom Penh, updated 26 July 2013

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