ANATOMY OF FRAUD (repost)

Anatomy of Fraud

3rd in Series on Election Irregularities of the Cambodia Spring

1st – How to Understand and Resolve Technical Issues of Election Irregularities

2nd – NEC Must Adhere to Standard of Reasonableness, Respect Due Process

Theary C. Seng, CIVCUS Cambodia Founding President

https://app.box.com

Indirect Impact of Void Ballots 

Here, I want to focus on the indirect impact that void ballots can have on the election results by changing the QUOTA figure.  To do so, we need to understand the seat allocation formula.

Seat allocation is not based on a fixed number of votes.  Rather, it is based on a multi-step formula using the law of average particular to each province.  It factors in valid and void ballots and the number of seats allocated for that particular province, (e.g. Siem Reap has 6 seats; Kandal, 11)  

Let’s say hypothetically, in Siem Reap:
-  300,000 VALID ballots cast [total votes cast minus void ballots]
-  CNRP = 160,000 
-  CPP = 120,000

Five (5) seats have been allocated of the total possible 6; one seat remains.  The formula to get this remaining seat is: 

However, if the CPP had received a total valid votes of 120,001 (rather than 120,000), this remaining 6^th seat would have gone to the CPP based on the Step Three formula. 

Effectively, in this hypothetical, the CPP would have received one N.A. seat based ONLY on one extra valid ballot! 

Let’s stay with the same hypothetical, but strip the numbers of zeros to simplify the example in illustrating the importance of void ballots in influencing seat allocation.

        -  30 VALID ballots cast [total votes cast minus void ballots]
        -  CNRP = 16 [and 6 void ballots]
        -  CPP = 12 
        -  Funcinpec (FUN) = 2 
        -  No Poverty Party (NPP) = 0     

Five of the 6 seats are allocated.  To get the 6^th seat, we follow Step Three which results in a tie for CNRP and CPP. 

Here is where one ballot theoretically can win a party one N.A. seat, and where the impetus is great to tamper with the valid ballots of CNRP and make them void.  As the hypothetical shows us, it doesn’t need to be many ballots; voiding one CNRP valid ballot is enough.

After voiding valid ballots of CNRP, let’s say, there’s tampering in the counting forms by shifting some or all of CNRP 6 void ballots to smaller parties which did not receive any seat allocation as “valid” votes—say, 2 to FUN and 4 to NPP.  (The obvious reason is to keep appearance that CNRP does n0t have any or has few "void" ballots, to deflect attention from the high “void” ballots for CNRP from fraud.  The more invidious reason is explained below.)  

[Radio Free Asia, 25 Aug. 2013] បន្ទាប់​ពី​ការ​ត្រួត​ពិនិត្យ ​កញ្ចប់​សុវត្ថិភាព «ក» ទាំង ១៣នោះ, គេ​ រក​ឃើញ​ ថា, ចំនួន​សន្លឹក​ឆ្នោត​ មិន​បាន​ការ​ ត្រូវ​ បាន​បាត់។  សន្លឹក​ឆ្នោត​ មិន​បាន​ការ ​ដែល​បាត់​នោះ ត្រូវ​ បាន​ចំណេញ ​ទៅ​គណបក្ស​តូចៗ​ ផ្សេងៗ​ទៀត ដែល​ខុស ​ពី​លទ្ធផល​ បឋម ដែល​ការិយាល័យ​ បោះ​ឆ្នោត ​ទាំង១៣ ប្រកាស​ កាល​ពី​ថ្ងៃ ​បោះ​ឆ្នោត។

As the original quota is 5, this shift still does not give FUN or NPP a seat.

However, the shift impacted on the total VALID votes (from 30 to 36), thus changing the QUOTA from 5 to 6.

        -  36 VALID ballots cast [total votes cast minus void ballots
        -  CNRP = 16 [and 0 void ballot]
        -  CPP = 12 
        -  FUN = 4 
        -  No Poverty Party = 4                

In Step Two, what seemed to be a benign shift of void ballots to be valid ballots for smaller parties with no seat allocation drastically impacted on the end result, which is the loss of a N.A. seat for CNRP. [...]

Herein lies the heart of CNRP’s contention, which is (or, should be) really everyone’s collective concern – the integrity of the vote!  The devil IS really in the details!