The Diplomat | Peter Keo | 14 August 2013
With demographics changing the electorate, both ruling and opposition parties need to get specific.
Some important themes have emerged from the recent Cambodian general elections – both good and bad. The bad news is that the post-election period was, on some level, more of the same. There were accusations of irregularities and voter fraud, not to mention reports of intimidation and threats to opposition activists in major provinces across the country. Prominent ruling party members issued grim warnings of civil war should the opposition win, while mass demonstrations challenged the flawed election results, which saw Hun Sen confirmed as prime minister this week.
The good news is that political leaders of all stripes recognize the
authentic power of young voters. With more than 50% of Cambodia’s
population under the age of 25 and 70% under 35, it would be perilous to
ignore them. In fact, that would be a surefire way to lose in five
years. Unlike their predecessors, a healthy proportion of young
Cambodians aren’t paralyzed by fear. They aren’t consumed by the
country’s war-torn past; rather, they are gravitating toward the
prospect of building an economically vibrant Cambodia. A more good news:
young people have turned to social media (Facebook, YouTube, Twitter,
among other outlets) to mobilize for change. This is the new status quo.
This is the new Cambodia.
Prime Minister Hun Sen’s youngest son, Hun Many, understood the importance of appealing to youths. But his approach was flawed. Too often the appeal was to the “why” or “what” and not the “how.” How will the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) (or the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), for that matter) create jobs for youths? How will leaders increase wages for civil servants, and how will they actually pay for those increases? Young people don’t care about the “why” or “what.” They already have those answers. The focus ought to be on how opportunities will be created to close the gap. Similar to young millennial-type voters across the globe – young Cambodians aren’t pledging allegiance to the party – but rather to the agenda. In America, we call them Independent voters. If promises are made and then broken to youths, major parties should brace for another power struggle in 2018, with seats going to the next best candidate who delivers on promises. That you most certainly can expect.
A Cambodian Arab Spring?
Alarmists often suggest a possible “Arab Spring”
in Cambodia. While this isn’t likely, despite a large disgruntled youth
population, there is reason to believe that major shifts will occur in
government policies, in phases over the next five years. One obvious
change didn’t take very long. It was the recent announcement of a 30%
pay raise for about 90,000 low-paid civil servants. That happened just
ten days after the election results came out, with more than 20 seats
occupied by the ruling party lost to the opposition. Civil servants have
typically aligned with the ruling party, so the pay hike was certainly a
wake-up call. Another inevitable change will focus on bridging the
education-workforce gap for young people. There can be no compromising
here if leaders want to stay in power. Disheartened youths are speaking
out about this in public forums such as Facebook. How that actually
unfolds remains to be seen. But the new government must double down on
these policies, now.
As more youths graduate without jobs, patience will wane. We are
seeing this happen across the globe, and Cambodia isn’t immune to this.
An important trend emerging in the country is the acquisition of two
concurrent bachelor’s degrees. Students believe this increases the
probability of landing good jobs after college. In reality, though, many
young people remain broke and unemployed after graduation, with a
growing number believing it’s “who you know” not “what you know” –
questioning the true value of a college education. That isn’t a good
precedent to set, especially for a country mired in poverty and with a
huge ambition to integrate with larger ASEAN economies
by 2015. Most college-educated youths live and work in major cities,
especially Phnom Penh and Siem Reap. It’s no surprise National Assembly
seats (particularly in those provinces) were swept by the CNRP, who made
promises of change or b’do. But the CNRP too will need to put their words into action.
Paying for Wage Increases
Change is already happening. The
recent announcement by the Finance Ministry to increase wages for civil
servants was sparked, in large part, by the Opposition. Months leading
up to the election, the CNRP made an even bigger promise of raising
wages for civil servants and armed forces from $70 to $250. Promises
also were made to increase monthly wages for garment workers from $61 to
$150, in addition to pension plans of $10 per month to senior citizens.
It’s important to note that the Cambodian government currently provides
an annual pay raise of 20% to civil servants and armed forces, but
mainly for low-paid workers.
But let’s look more closely at this civil servant wage increase.
Where will the government get the money to fund it? Has anyone
calculated actual cost? Here’s some simple math to get us started.
Though civil servant data are sparse and typically unreliable, let’s
assume that roughly 1.5% of the total population work for the
government, a figure supported by a 2003 World Bank report. All things
being equal, with growth in civil service employment in proportion to
the overall population, we can assume that, in 2013, with a population
of 15,205,539 (July 2013 est.), there are 228,083 civil servants in
Cambodia today. Now, let’s assume that we raise their wages from $70 to
$250 (an increase of $180), and we do that for all 228,083 employees.
That would cost the government US$41,054,940. For an aid-dependent
country with a weak GDP, it’s not exactly certain how this is going to
play out. The intentions are good, though, and this is certainly the
direction in which the country needs to head. But, again, leaders need
to figure out a plan to achieve lofty goals.
So, the real question is whether the country has the capacity to
support radical socioeconomic changes? Despite campaign rhetoric and
vague announcements, neither major party proposed real policies to
sustain economic growth. It isn’t clear, at least to this writer, how
the new government would find the money to pay for important social
programs. The CNRP meanwhile proposes to reallocate money – illegally
taken from government coffers – to offset costs. They have vowed to “go
after” corrupt officials. Though a good idea, that would take years to
do. It also isn’t clear how the ruling party will find money to narrow
the widening income and opportunity gaps responsible for their waning
power.
As an independent analyst and scholar, I’ve been hard on both parties
because the Cambodian people deserve better. They’ve been through much
over the past century, and there ought to be more than empty promises on
the table. But credit should be given where it is due. The CPP deserves
recognition for sustaining small but important economic growth
over the years, although serious governance changes are in order. The
CNRP ought to be praised for pushing against the status quo, fighting
for social justice and equality. For example, even though its proposed
draft law on minimum wages for garment and state workers was rejected by
the National Assembly on April 13, 2013, real steps are being taken to
achieve positive change for the people.
The biggest takeaway is this: Before the political bickering even
starts, leaders must get serious. They need to figure out a plan to
improve current living conditions. There is a clear widening gap between
the rich and poor, and a deeper opportunity gap for young people, many
of whom are studying and working hard for a better future.
The government owes it to the next generation to make things right, to
do things better. Yes, Cambodia is overcoming thirty years of war. But
it’s also had over twenty years of democracy. The people deserve
opportunities, and as a new government is formed, the country deserves
continued peace and stability.
Peter Keo is an independent analyst and Cambodia scholar for
Global Strategy Asia. He was educated at Harvard University and The
University of Chicago, and is completing a doctorate from Columbia
University. His research examines post-conflict reconstruction,
education, and youth empowerment in fledgling democracies, with a
primary focus on US-ASEAN relations. For questions or comments, please
reach him at petertankeo@gmail.com.
6 comments:
The cpp supporters or Khmer wannabe are trying hard by leaving stupid comments. All of you leaving comments on a borrowed time. You father Hun Sen will be out soon.
Once Khmer people set their mind on something it's hard to distract them. From what i know Vietnam is shaking because of what happening in Cambodia.
We will see who has the last laugh.
youn must be done in all shape and forms, don't underestimate Khmer, you Youns ka torp,
The UN and the West don't really care about Cambodia. if they have their way, they would prefer to shut the Cambodian people up and throw all the human rights abuses committed by Hun Sen in the trash bin. That way, for them at least, they have one less thing to work on. They don't really care about the long term consequences if Hun Sen to continue to cheat, win elections, and, eventually, gain support from them. As Hun Sen realizes that Khmer people really after his throat, he and his cronies will do even worst thing to Cambodia and the Cambodian people, as CPP consolidate their power even more, tighten the control of the society, begin purging the opposition supporters, use their dominance to accumulate more wealth, and trash Cambodia’s wealth, resources, and environment to the point of no return. The result, for the Cambodian society, will be chaotic, and massive, unrivaled devastation. The HunSen regime will clam down on Khmer activists, intellectuals, oppositions as never before. The purging will be similar to the style of the Khmer Rouge, but more from the assassin’s bullet, execution style. The UN and the West could potentially do more harm to Cambodia in the name of stability in the long term than help (That is precisely what has been happening in Cambodia. More and more people are calling on the donors to demand real change from Hun Sen). It’s the same pattern that has been repeating in the world as seen in Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Cambodia, etc., where the UN and the West prop up dictators like Saddam Husain, Asad, Mubarack, Hun Sen, etc. to suppress, kill, and destroy the people and countries as the UN and West tolerate those dictators. But then again, what do the UN and the West care.
Keep those kind of writings coming. I've seen a few good writings, even in the NYT, written by khmers. Keep up the good work and keep them coming.
Cambodia: Time for Action, Not Rhetoric, absolutely right.
Change! Change! Change! Change!
Change from Ho Chi Minh CPP to the Cambodian national rescue party the only way to achieve this is massive demonstration both inside and outside Cambodia all in one rise, if million Khmer united yuon Hanoi tanks and yuon hanoin solders in CPP uniforms will be defeated by million of Khmer working hands in hands in one strike.
Bravo! Khmer!
Bravo! Cambodian people!
Down ah Hun Sen.
Down ah Ho Chi Minh's dream.
Down ah yuon Hanoi.
Hun Sen, CPP ជាក្រុមកំហូច បំភាន់ បំភ្លៃ ចាប់កំហុស និងប្រឌិតសភាពការណ៏ជាប្រពៃណី ដែលប្រជារាស្រ្តខ្មែរ និងអន្តរជាតិបានដឹងលឺ សុសសាយ ដូច្នេះ CNRP សម រង្សី កឹមសុខា និងអ្នកស្នេហាជាតិទាំងអស់គួរប្រយត្ន័ប្រយែងរាល់ជំហាន ការនិយាយស្តី ។ល។ ពួកអគតិ Hun Sen, CPP អស់នេះតែងយកព្រះមហាក្សត្រ និងច្បាប់សិប្បនិមិត្តមកប្រើប្រាស់តាមអំពើចិត្ត និងកាប់សំលាប់ ចាប់ដាក់គុកអ្នកស្នេហាជាតិតាមអំពើចិត្ត
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