Cambodia Opposition Stages Mass Protest Over Disputed Vote

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The Wall Street Journal ASIA NEWS :September 7, 2013

The protest, one of the Southeast Asian nation's largest opposition rallies in recent years, came amid a standoff between Mr. Hun Sen's party and the Cambodia National Rescue Party over competing claims to victory in the July 28 vote — a political stalemate that could delay the forming of a new government for months.

Political analysts say the demonstration points to rising momentum for the country's emboldened opposition movement, and could mark the CNRP's last push for a United Nations-backed probe to be held into alleged electoral fraud, ahead of officials results due Sunday.

More than 20,000 people — bearing opposition flags and placards — joined the protest at Freedom Park in the heart of Phnom Penh, crying "change, change" and chanting slogans that called for nonviolent dissent against Mr. Hun Sen, who has dismissed the opposition's challenge and pledged to press ahead to form a new government and extend his 28-year reign as prime minister.

"We will continue to demand for justice for the Cambodian people," CNRP leader Sam Rainsy, who was denied candidacy in the July vote, told the crowd. "We will continue to hold demonstrations until there's a solution — an independent commission to investigate election irregularities."

CPP officials have repeatedly discouraged Saturday's protest, warning of potential civil unrest and pressing the CNRP to pursue its claims through bilateral talks. "I call on the people to maintain calm and we will continue negotiations between the two parties," Interior Minister Sar Kheng told The Wall Street Journal during the demonstration.

Police officials said tens of thousands of security personnel were deployed across Phnom Penh to maintain order, though no violence was reported.

According to preliminary tallies by the National Election Committee, Mr. Hun Sen's CPP received 48.8% of the 6.63 million ballots cast, or about 3.24 million votes, compared to the CNRP's 44.5%, or about 2.95 million votes.

The election commission hasn't announced parliamentary-seat allocations, but the CPP claims it has won 68 seats in a 123-member National Assembly, against 55 won by the CNRP. This marked a loss of 22 seats from the 90 that the ruling party won in 2008, a decline political analysts attributed to deepening disenchantment over rural land conflicts, high youth unemployment and widening social inequity.

The CNRP — formed last year by a merger of two opposition parties — meanwhile claims to have won 63 seats, enough for overall victory, compared to the 29 taken by its constituent groups five years ago.

Mr. Rainsy, a 64-year-old former finance minister, has repeatedly called for an internationally backed probe into alleged election irregularities, but the election commission — which has close ties to the CPP — has rejected this demand on grounds that it would contravene constitutional laws. On Thursday, the commission said its own investigations found some irregularities that weren't significant enough to sway the final result.

Either way, the vote — Cambodia's fifth since the United Nations reintroduced competitive elections in 1993 after decades of civil war — would mark the CPP's worst showing since 1998. While opposition protests aren't likely to alter the outcome of the election, political analysts say the strong turnout could compel the CPP, which has governed since 1979 independently and through coalitions, to do more to address socioeconomic concerns.

"The rally serves as a tool for the opposition to bargain and negotiate with the CPP, and will put pressure on the ruling party," said Chea Vannath, a Cambodian sociologist and political analyst.

Mr. Hun Sen, Cambodia's 61-year-old strongman, has said his party has enough lawmakers to override any opposition parliamentary boycott and form a new government. But some legal experts, including those from legal aid group Cambodian Defenders Project, say the constitution allows the opposition to block the process by declining to take its parliamentary seats.

Mr. Hun Sen last faced a similar situation in 2003 — when his CPP failed to win the required two-third parliamentary majority for forming a government on its own — and broke the political deadlock 11 months later by forging a coalition with the royalist Funcinpec party.

"Political risks have risen in the short term," said Douglas Clayton, chief executive at Leopard Capital, a private-equity firm that invests in frontier markets. But in the long run, "the move towards multiparty democracy reduces Cambodia's 'key man' political risks, and points the way toward better governance and transparency.

"Time is on the opposition's side. Cambodia's voter base gets younger every year, as the population's average age is just 22," Mr. Clayton said. "The CPP has to figure out how to connect with the postwar generation, or start planning their retirement."