FOCUS: Hun Sen faces bumpy road ahead as he begins new 5-year term

On the other hand, pro-democracy activist Seng Theary suggested it would be in Hun Sen's long-term personal interest, if he wants to preserve his legacy, to remove himself from the "ignominious club of dictators" and enter the "rarefied club of statesmen" who voluntarily relinquished power in order to facilitate a peaceful transition of government.

She suggested he could chose Sar Kheng, a moderate political figure who is Hun Sen's deputy prime minister and minister of interior, as his successor.

"I really do pray Hun Sen will act with wisdom. I really believe he has the potential to do so and awe us and secure himself a legacy of statesmanship," she said.

Cambodia-Hun Sen (News Focus)

FOCUS: Hun Sen faces bumpy road ahead as he begins new 5-year term

By Puy Kea | Kyodo News | 26 Sept. 2013

PHNOM PENH, Sept. 26 Kyodo - Cambodia's long-ruling leader Hun Sen has been re-elected to yet another five-year term, but the emergence of a much stronger opposition party and pressing demands for change from discontented masses make for a bumpy road ahead compared with his previous terms.

Analysts say Hun Sen, who has successfully outmaneuvered to his opponents to keep himself and his Cambodian People's Party in power over the past three decades, faces a changing political landscape in the wake of the disputed official results of the July 28 election that saw the CPP lose 22 seats in the 123-seat National Assembly.

Independent analyst Lao Mong Hay said Hun Sen will have to drastically change his own style in order to "address the people's grievances and meet their new aspirations as expressed through their votes and protests."

Compared to the past, he said, the Cambodian masses are now "more knowledgeable, more critical, and no longer responsive to the carrot and stick policy" used by Hun Sen and the CPP to ensure social and political stability.

Ahead of the election, Hun Sen likely assumed the CPP would win landslide victory, as it did in previous elections in 1998, 2003 and 2008.

But due to voter discontent over such issues as land rights, corruption and impunity, the CPP party saw its seats in the 123-seat National Assembly fall from 90 to 68, while those of the Cambodia National Rescue Party led by Sam Rainsy increased from 29 to 55.

The opposition party disputes the official results, claiming it would have secured a majority if the election had been conducted fairly.

It has staged mass protests and boycotted the session of the new National Assembly that began Monday to press demands that an independent committee be set up to probe irregularities in the election.

Hun Sen, who has been Cambodia's prime minister since 1985, has in response vowed that the business of the assembly and government will proceed with or without the CNRP's participation.

"That we are here today means we are not a hostage of any group," he told fellow CPP members at the assembly Tuesday after they approved his Cabinet lineup in the absence of CNRP lawmakers.

The opposition party has also demanded it be given the presidency of the National Assembly to enable it to play a "check and balance" role in the legislative body, but Hun Sen has rejected that idea on grounds that it would give the rival party unprecedented power to block motions and submissions.

In two rounds of talks last week between Hun Sen and Sam Rainsy, the latter also sought reforms of government institutions, measures to tackle corruption and re-composition of the National Election Committee, which it views as pro-CPP.

Sam Rainsy's calls have received backing from such countries as the United States, which recently declined to endorse the election outcome, urged a "transparent review of irregularities" in the July 28 election and sought "meaningful reforms" to strengthen rule of law and protect human rights, and the European Union, which stressed "the need to identify the flaws of the election."

Lao Mong Hay said Hun Sen, who has proven time and time again his ability to survive politically against all odds, and to lead the country -- with or without legitimacy -- will no doubt overcome whatever challenges arise over the next five years.

He recalled how Hun Sen ruled without political legitimacy in between 1985 and 1993, as prime minister of the Vietnamese-installed government that succeeded the Khmer Rouge regime, and how he masterfully managed to keep the CPP in power after it lost the U.N.-sponsored general election in 1993 to the royalist FUNCINPEC party.

He said that despite the changing political landscape, Hun Sen will no doubt "muddle through and attain his target of ruling until the age he has set for himself."

On the other hand, pro-democracy activist Seng Theary suggested it would be in Hun Sen's long-term personal interest, if he wants to preserve his legacy, to remove himself from the "ignominious club of dictators" and enter the "rarefied club of statesmen" who voluntarily relinquished power in order to facilitate a peaceful transition of government.

She suggested he could chose Sar Kheng, a moderate political figure who is Hun Sen's deputy prime minister and minister of interior, as his successor.

"I really do pray Hun Sen will act with wisdom. I really believe he has the potential to do so and awe us and secure himself a legacy of statesmanship," she said.

Lao Mong Hay suggested Hun Sen might chose his son Hun Manet, who is now a three-star army general after having graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, as his successor.

He said Hun Manet "should be able to cut a figure which is distinctly his own, not his father's."

The analyst said Hun Sen should content himself with a position much like that which Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew carved out for himself after ruling the city-state for three decades.

In 1990, Lee, then the world's longest-serving prime minister, handed over the premiership to Goh Chok Tong but continued on in his Cabinet as "senior minister" for 14 years, and then was "minister mentor" in the Cabinet of his son Lee Hsien Loong until 2011.

Phay Siphan, spokesman of the Council of Ministers, gave no indication that Hun Sen is considering to step down any time soon.

He acknowledged challenges ahead, but said Hun Sen is ready to carry out "in-depth reforms" over the next five years, promote reconciliation with the CNRP and woo opposition supporters to support the CPP in the future.

However, analysts point out that implementing reform is much more difficult than talking about it. Hun Sen risks upsetting old friends and strategic allies if he tries to accommodate the opposition demands.

Not that he has much choice.

"Reform is life or death for Hun Sen. Cutting bad flesh from his people would be his sacrifice, but that's the best choice for him if he wants to survive until the next election," a government official said on condition of anonymity.

He was believed to be referring to criticism that Hun Sen has been too soft on powerful people close to him and who exploit that proximity for their own benefit.

Chairing a marathon six-hour Cabinet meeting Wednesday, his first since being re-elected by the National Assembly, Hun Sen Hun Sen voiced confidence in implementing serious reforms in his new term.

"Reforms are the top priority for Cambodia," he said while reading a 115-page policy statement.

"Deep reforms will be focused on legal and judicial reforms, good governance, anti-corruption and land and forest management."

Hun Sen warned his Cabinet members not to misbehave, to reign in their family members, to reduce extravagance and to work humbly with the people.

He said officials should regularly conduct open forums to assess public opinion as well as to hear their criticism of his government's failings.