'It is clear, however, that Vietnam’s 90m people won't be consulted on the Party’s next choice of prime minister, or for that matter, anything else; the government still does not allow free elections. Party congresses are effectively closed to the media, and following Hanoi politics is perhaps a bit like watching a football match through the wrong spectacles: The pitch and the general outlines of the action are clear enough, but not the footwork or the tackles.'
SOME Western advocacy groups imply, in their regular harangues of Vietnam's human-rights record, that the country is run by an all-powerful and well-oiled authoritarian regime. The truth, however, appears to be more complicated.
It is clear to analysts that the Ministry of Public Security
operates a vast surveillance apparatus designed to silence political
dissident—even on Facebook—and that Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has major
influence over key policy decisions. To wit: his emergency directives earlier
this month helped to evacuate successfully nearly 800,000 people from coastal
areas ahead of Typhoon Haiyan. Relief agencies praised his efficiency and
foresight.
Yet the government is also, like a schoolyard, full of turf
wars. Some provincial officials chafe at central directives, for example, while
ministries openly undercut each other. And inside the ruling Communist Party,
Mr Dung is said to be embroiled in a tug-of-war with a rival party faction led
by Truong Tan Sang, the president, and Nguyen Phu Trong, the party's general
secretary. Adam Fforde, a Vietnam specialist at Victoria University in
Australia, wonders aloud if the country is a "land without a king."
However, the state-controlled press occasionally tosses out
crumbs of information that indicate which politicians are advancing, or vice
versa, through Hanoi’s opaque bureaucracies and vast patronage networks. A case
in point was the appointment by the National Assembly, on November 13th, of two
new deputy prime ministers. With the apparent blessing of Mr Dung and the
Communist Party’s elite Politburo, the assembly chose Vu Duc Dam, a former
assistant to a previous prime minister, and Pham Binh Minh, the current
minister of foreign affairs. A current DPM, Nguyen Thien Nhan, has been
dismissed and moved to the comparatively unglamorous position of heading the
Homeland, or Fatherland, Front, an organisation tasked with mobilising support
for the regime and selecting National Assembly candidates.
Seasoned observers say the reshuffle suggests a few
interesting things about Vietnamese politics. The main takeaway is that Mr Dung
appears to be reasserting his influence after rebounding from months of heavy
internal criticism. A year ago he was forced by his rivals to publicly
apologize for mismanaging the economy, but he is now filling his cabinet with
loyal and highly competent allies. He may have his eye on 2016, when he will
step down as prime minister but could remain in the Politburo. Although not all
DPMs are Politburo members, the general view is that it certainly wouldn’t hurt
Mr Dung to have some of his closest associates in top government positions.
Neither Mr Dam or Mr Minh are in the running for the
premiership in 2016, in analysts’ view, and Mr Minh never will be because he is
a career diplomat who doesn't have a wide-enough political base. But Mr Dam,
who was until recently chairman of the government office—the rough equivalent
to an American president's chief of staff—could eventually become a candidate
for both the top job and a seat on the 16-member Politburo. Tuong Vu at the
University of Oregon, in America, says the politician with a better chance of
becoming prime minister in 2016 is the current first DPM, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, who
is already a Politburo member.
However, Mr Minh has retained his position as head of the
foreign ministry, and his DPM election could help allay lingering concerns
among top Vietnamese officials that the country can't pursue an effective
foreign policy if its foreign ministry lacks pull in the Politburo. Mr Minh,
who has a graduate degree in law and diplomacy from Tufts University, in
America, and has served as a diplomat in both New York and Washington, is not
yet a candidate for the Politburo, and he may never be. But Professor Vu said
last week that Mr Minh’s DPM appointment would be a “compromise solution”
designed to raise the ministry’s profile.
It is difficult to predict whether or to what extent Mr
Minh's new title will have any direct bearing on Vietnam's human-rights record
or its negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an American-led
free-trade agreement involving a dozen countries. (America’s treasury
secretary, Jacob J. Lew, visited Hanoi on November 14 to help drum up support
for it.) Equally unknown is who will get the premier nod in 2016. Analysts say
it probably won’t be Nguyen Thien Nhan, the recently departed DPM. Some see Mr
Nhan’s dismissal as both a sidelining and a reflection on his allegedly poor
performance as education minister.
It is clear, however, that Vietnam’s 90m people won't be
consulted on the Party’s next choice of prime minister, or for that matter,
anything else; the government still does not allow free elections. Party
congresses are effectively closed to the media, and following Hanoi politics is
perhaps a bit like watching a football match through the wrong spectacles: The
pitch and the general outlines of the action are clear enough, but not the
footwork or the tackles.
(Photo credit: AFP)
18 comments:
Dear School of Vice,
I would say, 'None of the above, neither people nor animals' Animals are still way better than them. A-J
Dear School of Vice, and Jendhmuni,
They are the world bank of malignant cancer,. The malignity must be stopped!
The world physicians and researchers must come out for the surgical resolution!
How can I say anymore?
Curiosity
Fuck vietcong...
Dear 2:57 AM,
Love your comments!
To Mrs Sos Jendhamuni
A proverb Khmer said that:
CHAMS MOUY CHAM AM DEUL MAEK.
Can you translate this meanings?
3:39 AM
Stop making Khmer people dirty Ah Kantorb !!
I don't know what the shit you wanted to say.
Dear Jendhamuni,
There is nothing wrong to help your birth mother land! Something that have been though isolating trying to make Khmer and Cham take each other the as foes was and is the matter of fact!
Good Khmer always stand by good human being on earth!
Dear 3:39 AM,
Of course I do know the meaning of this slogan. It goes like this:
You, 3:39 AM, afraid of Jendhamuni just like HELL, because Heaven does not welcome you. I want to bring you a long to heaven too, but Hell guards said "NO" So, Jendhamuni hates to argue with Hell guards from Avici, especially after seeing the super thick list of your corrupted and evil activities they have shown me.
Sorry, no one can save you, but you yourself. Buddha said so too. So I better not argue with the Buddha... Good luck in Avici with the rest of CPP members okay. Need a hug? Sharp weapons are ready to hug you....
Jendhamuni
Why does KI media have mostly comments from Mike? This guy seems to have a lot of free time on his hands. His quack language is still present. I guess the education system in Hanoi hasn't improve much since the communist takeover. Jobless Mike likes to quack all day.
Please help Cambodia as soon as possible other wise Khmer land will soon finish from the world's map like Champa (Cham).
A proverb Khmer said that:
CHAMS MOUY CHAM AM DOL MAEK. Mike.
China should use NUCLEAR to destroy Vietnam now otherwise it will be too late, Vietnam is trying to build NUCLEAR factory with Russia and USA, when they will have NUCLEAR reactor they can build Bomb and it will be hard to control it and China will be dangerous with Vietnam one day
I appeal all Cambodian must stand up now to overthrow HUN SEN from the power, otherwise Cambodian will be controlled by Vietnam soon.
Who will go first, maybe you???
អាជ្ញាធរដែនដីលោភៈ
បុគ្គលក្នុងកំណាព្យ ឆ្អាបឈាមខ្មែរទូទាំងរដ្ឋា
សូមកុំឃាត់គេជេ សូមកុំហាមគេស្ដី!
ម្ដេចមានប្រល័យ ជាប្រណីតតាហារ អប្រិយទុយសហិង្សា? ប្រព័ន្ធនៃបេះដូង
ឈាមជ័រខ្មែរតែមួយ ទុក្ខវេទនាចាំងចក្ខុហើយ
ចរន្នលោហិតារុណ នុះឯងហើយចាំមាត្រាក្រិត្យ សន្មតធម្មជាតិនៃលោក!
កំណាញ់អ្វីម្លេះ បើគ្រាន់តែផ្ដល់យុត្តិធម៌?
អ្នកគ្រាន់តែប្ដូរមកជាល្អ ទ្រទ្រង់ជាតិផងយើង
ពោលថាក្លាហាន គឺឧត្តម្ភគតិលះ ពុំមែនយកឈ្នះ លើសាសន៍ឯងឡើយ!
អ្នកតូចទាបខ្សោយ បន់ស្រន់រាល់ថ្ងៃ
សូមអំណាចរដ្ឋាថ្មី ប្ដូរឥរិយាបទ
កើតមកជាមនុស្ស មានខ្ចោះគ្រប់រូប
ប្រញាប់ប្រែកាយ សះស្បើយឡើងវិញ!
ព្យាបាលទាន់ពេល សូមកុំទុកត្រាំត្រែង
បើពិតជាម្រេញ ផុតវេជ្ជវិទ្យាឳសុថផ្សំ
សាកលលោកគេខ្ពើម យមលោកទាមទា
ម្ចាស់ឈាមតៃហោង ចោមរោមរុករកហៅឈ្មោះ
ព្រោះតែបំណុល ស័ក្ដសិទ្ធចងចាំជាក់
វ័ណ្ឌករដោយឈាម ខ្មែរអ្នកស្លូតត្រង
កុំចាំក្រែងយ៉ឺត ខ្លួនឯងក៏មិនអភ័យ
ពេលក្លាយជាប្រែត ទ្រង់ប្រោសចាកឆ្ងាយ
ដង្ហើមចុងក្រោយ ស្រូបផ្ដាសាញាតិប្រទេច
កិតិយសអក្សារបង់ ប្រឡាក់ឈាមងំ ខ្លិនខ្លួនអសោច៍ជាអមតៈ
ស្វែងរកស៊ួនសុវណ្ណ នៃឋានសួរ៌គតិ
ឳកូនខ្មែរអើយ សូមបញ្ចប់សាងអាស្រូវ
ឈប់សាងកម្មពៀរទៅ អភិរក្ខសាវតារខ្មែរមាន
ចាប់ដៃរគ្នាជាស្ពាន ទាន់ជឿនលឿនវិទ្យា
អភិវឌ្ឍន៍កល្យាណ ស៊ួនសុវណ្ណសំណប់លោកី!
Vietnam Muon Nam!!!
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