Kevin Ponniah, The Phnom Penh Post
Mon, 16 December 2013
Analysis
In
its switch to a strategy of nonstop demonstrations calling for a new
election, the opposition party has made a calculated decision to go
“all-in” and toughen its stance in a bid to ramp up domestic pressure on
the ruling party, political analysts said yesterday.
Since the
July 28 poll, the Cambodia National Rescue Party has pushed for an
independent probe into election irregularities, a request that the
government and Cambodian People’s Party have continuously rejected, and
which the international community has been unwilling to back with more
than words.
As a result, the CNRP is now responding to a growing
chorus of supporters and members who believe it has “been too soft in
dealing with the CPP”, Phoak Kung, a researcher at Britain’s University
of Warwick, said.
“The emerging consensus (at least within the
circle of the opposition) is that they need to take a tougher stance in
order to make the CPP concede [to] their demands,” Kung, whose research
focuses on democratic reforms in Cambodia, said.
CNRP public
affairs head Mu Sochua told the Post yesterday that the release of a
comprehensive report by a group of election watchdogs known as the
Election Reform Alliance (ERA) has emboldened the opposition by
providing “very clear evidence of massive fraud”.
“They [the CPP] can’t keep denying it. We can’t accept that,” Sochua said.
“[We
need] election reforms for a re-election in 2014, [and] we have to use
the ERA report as the base for electoral reform [instead of the
investigation].”
But according to Kung, even though continuous
protests may give the CNRP extra leverage to force concessions out of
the ruling party, “leaders need to be realistic” about what they can
get.
“There’s a threshold that the CPP cannot go beyond, such as
re-election, the post of the National Assembly president and
investigations into irregularities. The current deadlock can only be
solved through dialogue and compromise,” he said.
Still, the CNRP
believes it has a historic opportunity to change Cambodian politics and
has thus “doubled down on using protests as the only viable political
weapon for change”, Peter Tan Keo, an independent political analyst,
said.
“Nothing else matters to the party at this point. They are
going all-in. My belief is that the CNRP is riding this ‘wave of change’
to the very end,” he said.
“The CNRP, or any opposition for that matter, may never again get this opportunity.”
Carlyle
Thayer, a Southeast Asia expert at the Australian Defence Force
Academy, said Prime Minister Hun Sen is likely to only make “minimal
concessions” despite pressure from all sides, including close allies.
A
December 4 report by Chinese state-run news agency Xinhua featured
unprecedented criticisms of the government and questioned Hun Sen’s
political will to carry out proposed reforms.
“Once Hun Sen
embarks on a limited program of political reform, this will ease
pressures from within the CPP and from the international community,
including China,” Thayer said in an email.
“The opposition faces
the conundrum of whether to support these reforms or continue to stand
outside the process and dismiss all reforms as meaningless … the
opposition is likely to be unrelenting and uncompromising because
limited reforms will only entrench the Hun Sen regime in power.”
While
authorities at recent demonstrations have allowed protesters to march
and demonstrate peacefully, Thayer added that CNRP leader Sam Rainsy
might be hoping for a stronger response.
“I have always felt that
Sam Rainsy was hoping for an overreaction by security authorities to
generate martyrs for his movement. Any overreaction would have
galvanized domestic support … and swelled his ranks.”
According
to political researcher Kem Ley, protesters could face a bloody
crackdown if the demonstrations gather momentum and swell in size.
“If
there is no agreement between the two parties [on how to organise a new
election or a new National Assembly] in a secret way, I think the armed
forces will crack down on the demonstrators,” he said.
Ley added
that the best outcome would be an agreement for a new election in one
or two years’ time, a timeframe mentioned by Interior Minister Sar Kheng
last week as he told reporters a snap election was impossible.
Although
comparisons between the protest movements in Cambodia and Thailand have
been made in recent weeks, most prominently by Rainsy, the political
dynamic in the two countries is very different, said John Ciorciari,
Cambodia watcher and public policy professor at the University of
Michigan.
“Following the Thai opposition’s model of extended
protest could generate added international attention and domestic
sympathy for the protesters, especially if the authorities use violence
in response to a perceived escalation,” he said.
“[But] unlike
the Thai opposition, which has powerful friends in the military,
judiciary and other parts of the government, the CNRP faces an incumbent
party with a relatively firm grip on the security forces, the courts
and other key nodes of power.”
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY CHEANG SOKHA
Monday, December 16, 2013
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3 comments:
Do nothing khmer people will die.
Do something khmer people may live.
Forever-United.
And then???
JAMM TA JOSS TEU!
Hun Sen
11:26 PM...some believe the world is flat.
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