Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Two Crisis in Different Natures


Ms.Yingluk, the 13th Thai Prime Minister since 1985
By Khmer Wathanakam
khmerwathanak.blogspot

After more than two years on power by landslide election victory, Thai Prime Minister Yingluk Shinawatra has faced a similar fate as her brother Tacksin who was ousted by military coup in 2006.   Two weeks of violent protest has forced Prime Minister Yingluk to dissolve her democratic elected parliament and called for a new snap election in order to avert bloodshed.  Nevertheless, her painful concession has not satisfied the protester conservative leader Suthep who has demanded her resignation and prosecution for unspecified alleged corruption.  Ms.Yingluk emotionally pleaded on TV to Thai people for calm and set a new election has struck hearts and minds of Cambodian people who are tussling with Hun Sen who had rigged the election which cost the opposition victory.  During election protest rally in Seam Reap, Sam Rainsey openly called for Hun Sen to resign or to fallow Ms.Yingluk's solution.  But every call and demand of the people seems fall on Hun Sen's deaf ears since he fears nothing but to lose his power.  Now many concerns have been raised whether the Cambodian opposition are tough enough to force Hun Sen to step down or to accept a new election.

Hun Sen, a Cambodian Prime Minister since 1985
To understand why Cambodian crisis has dragged on too long while Thai political crisis seems reach on its final stage, we should look into political system of the two countries.  Thailand is a true democratic country where all national institutions are very independent from political parties especially military, police, court, and national election committee.  When these power sources are neutral, they create balance of power that provides political parties the same playing fields to deter each other if any one dares to go beyond power limit.  Such political environment has enhanced and sustained democratic process to move forward.  Thailand and Japan have frequently changed their leaders more than any country in the world.  Since 1985 when Hun Sen was appointed as a prime minister by Vietnamese troops, Thailand has been ruled by at least 13 prime ministers, and most of them were on power for less than a year; only Prime Minister Prem Tinsulanon had the longest rule from 1980 to 1988.  He was well-known among Thai people as a fierce anti-Vietnamese invasion in Cambodia, and he ended Thai Communist insurgency in 1982 through an amnesty law.  A frequent change of Thai leaders is based on Thai political culture when people lost faith with their leaders, they come to streets to demand their leaders resigned or intervened by military.

A way Prime Minster Yingluk has handled a situation in Thailand is well acclaimed by most Cambodian people though the Thai protesters still did not satisfy.  Sam Rainsey even asked people in a rally in Seam Reap to applause Prime Minister Yingluck for her courage and asked Hun Sen to do the same.  Although Thai crisis has reached its final stage, the Yingluk's government is still in limbo, for the protesters have demanded her complete resignation and created an "unelected People's Council" to rule the country without election.  Such a demand will push Thailand into an undemocratic process if the protesters are successful.  Now the pro-government Red Shirt group has warned that it will bring more people to defense Yingluk's government if the yellow Shirt protesters use forces to bring her down.   If a standoff between the Red and Yellow shirts take place, the military will intervene as happened in the past and new election will be introduced again.  This is how a cycle of political crisis in Thailand takes place since the military is above politics, the politicians are scared each other.  This is not the case in Cambodia where every national institution is under one man or one party control.

On the public eyes, the Thai protesters get less sympathy from people and international community since the protesters wanted an unelected body to rule the country which contradicts to the principle of democracy, and the whole world has been watching the situation in Thailand closely.  Meanwhile, the Thai military, which used to intervene in Thai political crisis in the past, has repeatedly refused to get involved when the protest leader, Suthep, openly asked this powerful institution to intervene in order to end the crisis quickly.  Though the army has refused to take sides now, the Yingluk's government is not out of wood yet if the democrat, the oldest and largest opposition party, boycotts in this proposed snap election, the crisis will deepen, and it will be more likely for the army to intervene at the end.

In Cambodia, if the military is neutral like in Thailand, the opposition can fallow the same way as the Thai protesters, for there is a balance of power in place.  Thai government either run by any party, always refrains or hesitates to use excessive force or violence against protesters unless a situation is out of control, for they are on a watchful eyes of the army.  The Thai military either intervenes on the protesters or government side depend on its best judgement.  Now even the protesters have called for the military to intervene on the sake of people, there is not good enough reason for its intervention  since the protesters wanted an unelected "people council" to rule the country instead of an elected government.  The way that Yingluk's government restrained from violent crack down on the protesters and even let them occupied many government buildings to avoid bloodshed can keep the army from stepping in.  This how the balance of power that all Thai politicians have enjoyed hitherto.

In contrast, Cambodia has no such a balance of power in place when Hun Sen and his party have controlled everything from village base through a top of national institutions, even the Royal palace and pagodas (Wat) are not spared from their strict control.  Thus, the opposition can't adopt a Thai protest model because it will be dangerous as Hun Sen can order his police and military to crush the protesters on his own will as we have witnessed in the past.  A new strategy that has adopted by the CNRP to start a daily protest may not work quickly but to apply rigid pressure on Hun Sen to step down or to call for a new election while at the same time helps to preserve safety for the protesters.  Such a peaceful strategy will neutralize Hun Sen's power from using any violent protest as his excuse to use violent crackdown on the protesters, and whenever the balance of power has reached a tipping point, the protesters will move to a final stage of removing this illegitimate leader from power as Kem Sokha warned that Hun Sen should step down voluntarily or wait until people pull him down.  This is the first stern warning from the opposition since the beginning of the crisis though there is no sign that the opposition are able to bring more protesters on the streets than the current numbers.

The Thai conflict started between the conservative urban elites (Yellow-Shirt) and the liberal poor workers and rural farmers (Red-Shirt) while in Cambodia between the democrat, nationalists against dictatorship, corrupt cronies, and foreign stooges.  Cambodia has been ruled by one prime minister since 1985 in compared with 13 prime ministers in Thailand.  The crisis in Cambodia may last longer and moves towards a resolute and dangerous point since Cambodia has no independent institutions to intervene as in Thailand--military and Royal institutions.  Albeit the Thai crisis still lingers, a new election on February 3, 2014 or the military intervention are the key mechanism to end the crisis ahead.  In Cambodia, the Royal and military institutions are strictly under the CPP's control, so they definitely will intervene in a political crisis on Hun Sen's behest.

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

EXTRA EXTRA EXTRA read all about it!

Dr. Hoon Xen ruled Nambodia 30 years and continuing until he die fact no more Cambodia country on earth anymore.

Thailand has been ruled by at least 13 prime ministers, and most of them were on power for less than a year; only Prime Minister Prem Tinsulanon had the longest rule from 1980 to 1988.

Anonymous said...


Clear answer:
1) Crise in Thailand is just only between Thai people.

2) Crise in Cambodia is causing by only foreign country that want Khmer land for hundreds years agao. That is the point.


Anonymous said...

Because khmer hate them(YOUN&SEIM) so much forgot to do anything else, that why they get richer and more power full every day. Right now khmer got nothing to match with their power, if the real full scale war broke of between khmer and those nation who going to suffer more? You should "love thy enemy" before they kill you all, if you want to win right now is not the time, the time come when you have strong military power to match them and friend with the super power nation before than you should "love thy enemy".

Anonymous said...

It is time for all bystanders in Phnom Penh who ,deep down in their hearts, also want to see changes to start joining the demonstrations actively on a daily basis! Together we have strength and power to topple Hun Sen!

Let us not wait for other compatriots to do it for us, but let us help them help ourselves!

Come on, middle-class Cambodians in Phnom Penh and else where in the country, join the demonstrations and be part of history for changes which you also want!

Remember that the common folks can't do it all alone; they need your help and support; their victory is also yours to cherish!

Pissed Off

Savoeun Koy said...

Just remember this: thief or rubber is an outlaw and always wants to stay above the law. The outlaw wants to dictate and wants to change the law on his side. If someone is willing to talk about righteousness and justice, the thief alway says no, no, no. Trust me.

Anonymous said...

rKfacig

Anonymous said...

ខំ្ញុសូមគាំទ្រអត្ថបទរបស់លោកនៅត្រង់ចំណុចថា ប្រទេសកម្ពូជាគ្មាន
ឯករាជភាពផ្នែកកងទ័ព ប៉ូលីស េប៉អឹុម រួមទាំងរាជវាំងនិងសាសនាផង
បានជាពំុអាចធ្វេីអ្វីកេីតដូចគេ ។
ចុះប្រសិនបេីស្ថានភាពស្រុកខ្មែរប្រែក្លាយដូចស្រុកសៀម គឺមានក្រុម
គាំទ្ររដ្ធាភិបាលនាំគ្នាងេីបឡេីងធ្វេីបាតុកម្មប្រឆាំងគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះ
ជាតិ តេីលោកគិតយ៉ាងណាដែរ ? តេីថ្នាក់ដឹកនាំគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះ
ជាតិមានវិធានការអាចទប់ទល់បានដែរឬទេ ?
ដោយគោរពរាប់អាន,
លី ឌៀប

Anonymous said...

History shown that Khmer only kill Khmer for power, I didn't see Khmer really fight a full scale war with other nation. If Khmer are so dump to be use by other nation, who fault is that? Some of those paranoia people scar about "Youn" take over Khmer it will be come true one day, because these people are the real "Youn" that keep making trouble and degrade Khmer unity that play into the enemy hand.

Anonymous said...

blah, blah, blah... 11:35 AM, just make the old farts CPP get off their positions, and allow new leadership to form, that is all that most people want, no history killing bullshit. don't you know people are tired of these assholes after seeing them shamelessly clinging to power and stealing state's resources like there is no tomorrow year, after year, for three decades. the change will be good for the younger Cambodians, those CPP assholes' children included.

Anonymous said...

This author is so freaking funny. First he supported ah Ou Virak the stupid jerk who can't even understand the simple sentence "A is weaker than B". Similarly to ah Ou Virak, this author said that the sentence means that B as an entire group is weaker than A. However, on another point, Ou Virak said that Thailand has a flawed democracy. Check his facebook page. Now this author says that Thailand is a true democratic country. Make up your mind already, fool. If you are going to support ah Oooooo Virak, then fulfill the saying of "Birds of the same feathers flock together" already. I find this author STUPID and incoherent most of the time. His logic fallacies abound and the reason people don't say anything to him because he is below standards and Cambodians in general are too polite to let him know his incompetence. Enough said.

Anonymous said...

@12:44pm… did kem sokha appoint ou viral as his
successor in cchr ?

Anonymous said...

YingLuck serves Thailand and Hun Sen serves Hanoi only, Hun Sen serves China? I am not sure. China could be just a disguise, for more funds, China support, and Vietnam can use this excuse to move closer the the former foe US. In fact, Vietnam has Cambodia firmly under its controle.

Anonymous said...

ah HUN SEN Slap ning taihoong chap chap nis

Anonymous said...

This is my analysis of Thailand and Cambodia and we are so fucking different!

-Thailand has been Monarchy forever! The Siem people can do whatever in politic but half the country are owned by Siem King and the Siem thug military control Siem politic and usually it is the opposition party that stir political trouble. Thailand was so lucky not to have war!


-Cambodia at the beginning was Monarchy,then socialist, then became Communist, then became Vietcong slave communist puppet, and still is! Cambodia has war, war, and more wars...then the genocide and then fuck up and dirt-poor! Now Cambodia is falling into victim of countries that have advance economy, the technologies, and the know how.

So what now for Cambodia! What is the master plan to catch with the rest of the world? Cambodia can't afford to be like this forever because a weak Cambodia will welcome the enemies to the door step and Cambodian people will die without firing a single bullet! This is prime time for democracy to flourish in Cambodia where the very best idea competing to be on top that lead Cambodia and Cambodian people out of misery and the backward and deter Cambodian enemies to stay away!

Anonymous said...

When you HATE or DISLIKE some one you must first STUDY YOURSELF WHY? Not just HATE or DISLIKE them without analyse or thinking otherwise it doesn't mean much to you.It's not GOOD to hate people but some time you can't ignore because they did so many BAD THINGS to HURT or WANTED to DESTROY YOU.

Anonymous said...

ជាមួយអាកូនឆ្កែហ៊ុនសែនដល់តែស្អែកទើបចុះចេញពីតំណែង!
អាកូនឆ្កែហ៊ុនសែនសុខចិត្តសំលាប់មនុស្សអស់ពីផែនដីក៏មិនសុខចិត្តចុះចេញពីតំណែងដែរ!

លើកលែងតែយួនអោយចុះទើបអាកូនឆ្កែហ៊ុនសែនចុះពីតំណែង!

ត្រឹមបារ៉ាក់អូបាម៉ាគ្រាន់តែជាអាយ៉ៃបំពេឆ្កែឆ្មារតែប៉ុណ្ណោះគឺអាកូនឆ្កែហ៊ុនសែនស្តាប់មិនចូលត្រចៀកទេ!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Hun Sen has no courage whatsoever to act as Yingluck has done because
of two main reasons: 1- From beginning, Hun Sen, one of the savage Khmer
Rouge cadres, was installed in power by the Viet invaders, not by popular
votes. As Hun Sen keeps trying to strengthen his power by means of using
his deadly force upon Khmer compatriots, his own evil deeds scares him to
think that he cannot live without power. The day he loses his power, it means
the day he must face multiple criminal lawsuits... 2- Hun Sen is not an
academically educated individual who has enough capacity to challenge for
a high government post, as Ms. Yingluck does, so he must cling to power
no matter what! And another big difference between Hun Sen and Yingluck
is: PM Hun Sen is a slave of Vietnam, while PM Yingluck is an independent
individual. Furthermore, Yingluck might get involved in corruption and some
minor criminal acts, while Hun Sn has Khmer people's blood on his hand;
in sort, is a cold-blooded killer and a breeder of corruption as well!

Anonymous said...

All the protesting has no result, I don't see anything going to change anytime soon. The leader of the protester are to weak, if they are strong there should be 100 thousand to a million of the protester in the streets right now. I see no blood spill, no death and it getting boring. They should give up now before the peoples turn againt the leader of the protester, because the leader are too weak, no result, no real goal to accomplish. People only support you if you give them what they want, if not those leader should be worry that they will turn back againt them

Anonymous said...

Khmer in here Sound so stupid. blaming Youn and Thai then Chinese then USA! fking Khmer. Khmer people have no Balls! No Guts! weak minded! When are You khmer people going to fight and stand up United your people. Then overthrown the Gov(CPP). CPP and Youn know for fact Khmer people are weak! that why khmer are khmer today!

Anonymous said...

Cambodian like to watch others country live freedly and Happy. It people do nothing and talk bad about each others! Khmer dont love Khmer they only love material stuff....

Anonymous said...

With or without Rainsy Khmer will live and move forward with the rest of the world. Rainsy please leave those poor Khmer alone, you have nothing to give them but leaded them to no where. Those poor Khmer slept in cold, rain and dirty place. They will get sick, cannot work to support their family and their life will ne miserable because of the leader like you that have no clue what you doing. Cambodia is not in the state of war, people are free to do what ever they want and work to support their family. I know most of Khmer are poor, the current government are corrupt, and that is your job to work with the government to change all that. We got to work together as Khmer love Khmer you don't turn Khmer again Khmer, don't advocate hate for other group of people, if you are a true leader you would understand. But if you only do this for your own fame and power you will not succeed, and you will judge by history as a traitor like all those before you.

Anonymous said...

stop trying compare khmer with siem. just because somebody said we all can learn from everybody in the world, doesn't mean cambodia has to be like siem's political. nobody in their right mind want siem politics. i hope the cnrp people are smarter and and wiser than that! be orginal, cambodia! do like japan, adopt and borrow from others, but make it our own in cambodia. everything in cambodia is khmer. we shouldn't repeatedly promote siem and yuon like that, ok! be clever, smart and wise, cambodia!

Anonymous said...

People copy or steal each other style all over the world. We Khmers do not need to change our identity, but we got to improve ourselves by learning from those who are better than ourselves.

Anonymous said...

9:01am, true! knowledge has no border! cambodia is so hungry for knowledge from all over the planet! pol pot never want cambodia and its people to gain worldly knowledge. the reason, i think, it because keeping the population ignorant is easier to control them. according pol pot, knowledgeable people can fight back. well, pol pot is dead now and look cambodia and life goes on! so learn from it and don't be so paranoia about yuon, etc all the time, it only blinds you for seeing clearly. to benefit all of cambodia and its people, we all have to wise up and change a little by being flexible and cooperative so a sound solution can be found to help settle all this political nonsense. khmer people from all walks of life hungry for stability, peace, devlepment, prosperity finding sound solution so life can go on and on in cambodia. fighting among ourself shows greed, selfish, cruelty and uethical and unprofessional people! stop it already! all should work tirelessly to find sound solution for cambodia. no more excuse!

Anonymous said...

I'm 9:01
9:23, you're absolutely right on the heads of those traitors!

Anonymous said...

Hun sen will never be like Yinluk! , he's a low life, liar, coward, thief and murderer - he will not behave with dignity.