Showing posts with label 2008 review. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 review. Show all posts

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Retrospective on the news in Cambodia for 2008 (Part II)

02-01-2009
By Ka-set in English
Click here to read the article in French
Click here to read the article in Khmer


From the listing of the Preah Vihear temple as a World heritage site to Born Samnang and Sok Sam Oeun's provisional release, let us take a look back at the second semester of 2008 in Cambodia. Those six months were mainly marked by the legislative elections and the confirmation of the ruling Cambodian People's Party's electoral supremacy, but also by the border dispute with Thailand.

JULY: Preah Vihear and the elections

7th : After a serias of twists and despite tensions with Thailand who eventually withdrew its support to Cambodia, the temple of Preah Vihear is listed as a World Heritage Site. The decision was issued by the World Heritage Committee, meeting in Quebec (Canada). In the meantime, the Committee urged Cambodia to collaborate with Thailand with a view to come to a new “cross-border listing” of the area, intended to ensure the conservation of the whole site, acknowledged by the Committee as “exceptional”.

Phnom Penh, Olympic stadium (Cambodia), 14/07/2008. Celebrations for the Preah Vihear temple's listing as a World Heritage Site (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

11th : A journalist of the opposition newspaper Moneaksekar Khmer (Khmer Conscience) and his son are assassinated in Phnom Penh. Khem Sambo's murder happened as the election campaign was at its peak. The murder is seen by many and by the SRP as “a message addressed to the opposition, especially to the Sam Rainsy Party”. The assassinations are widely condemned.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 13/07/2008. Funeral of Khem Sambo, a journalist killed together with his son on July 11th (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

15th : A border conflict is set off between Cambodia and Thailand. Despite the listing earlier the same month of the temple of Preah Vihear as a World Heritage Site, three Thai nationals climb the barrier situated on the Thai-Cambodian border during the night of July 14th-15th to install flags representing their country's colours. They are arrested by the Cambodian authorities on charges of violation of the Cambodian territory. Although Cambodia has kept the Preah Vihear border crossing closed since June 22nd - a precaution taken to contain the potential popular unrest which appeared following demonstrations held near that area of the border - some forty Thai armed soldiers enter the Cambodian territory around mid-day. Meanwhile, other Thai armed forces are deployed along the border, facing their Cambodian counterparts, already stationed. Each party reinforcing their strength, June 15th marks the beginning of a long dispute.

Prasat Preah Vihear (Preah Vihear, Cambodia), 21/07/2008. Member of the military police on site (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

17th : Cambodia is still listed, together with 9 other Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Lao PDR, Timor-Leste and Yemen) by the United nations as a “least developed country”. The list is revised every three years by the Social and Economic Council.

27th : Twelve political parties compete in the peacefully held legislative elections. The CPP is said to be well ahead and the first temporary results announce without any surprise the victory of Prime Minister Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (CPP); the population is angry due to the impossibility for many people to cast their vote. During the July 2008 elections, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human rights noted lower violence from previous elections but observed more threats and intimidation directed against political activists.

Takhmau (Kandal, Cambodia), 27/07/2008. Prime Minister Hun Sen casting his vote in his district (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

28th : The day following the polls, the Cambodian opposition show unity in front of the CPP. All four parties, including the Sam Rainsy Party, the Human Rights Party, the Norodom Ranariddh Party and the FUNCINPEC, which are represented with at least one seat at the National Assembly, call their fellow Cambodian citizens “not to acknowledge the July 27th 2008 election results”.

Late July: land disputes between Cambodia and Thailand spread little by little. Thai troops are sent to occupy the Ta Moane temples, located nearby the countries’ common border, in the Cambodian province of Oddar Meanchey. Thailand claims sovereignty over these temples.

AUGUST: post-election protest and Khmer Rouge tribunal

12th : PSR et PDH stay united in their rejection of the election results and announce their intention to bring the matter before the United Nations.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 08/08/2008. Press conference held by Sam Rainsy, Keat Sokhim (vice-president of the Human Rights Party) et Muth Chantha (spokesman for the Norodom Ranariddh Party) in protest of the legislative elections results (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

21st : Co-Prosecutors at the Extraordinary Chamber in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) file a Notice of Appeal against the Closing Order indicting the former director of S-21 centre and supposed to send him before the Trial Chamber. The decision prevents the first trial of the ECCC to open in 2008 as planned. The two Co-Prosecutors deplored the fact that this Order did not “indict the Charged Person [Duch] for committing the alleged crimes via participation in a joint criminal enterprise [at S-21]” and that the Closing Order “forgot to indict Duch on the basis of and in accordance with the Cambodian Penal Code of 1956”.

Kambol (Phnom Penh, Cambodia), 03/12/2007. Kang Guek Eav (Duch), in the Pre-Trial Chamber at the ECCC (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

SEPTEMBER: Boeung Kak, Norodom Ranariddh, the USA and Human rights

1st : More than a hundred residents at the Boeung Kak lake, in the capital of Cambodia, demonstrate in order to call the municipality to put an end to the operations launched by the private Company Shukaku Ltd to fill in the lake, or at least to find a solution to rehouse inhabitants. The company signed an agreement with the government in February 2007 and intends to invest US$79 million in a huge development project on the Boeung Kak lake and its surrounding area, as part of a 99-year concession on the zone. Shukaku Ltd started filling in the lake on August 26th.

Takhmau (Kandal, Cambodia),17/09/2008. Boeung Kak Lake residents demonstrate to urge the Prime Minister to intervene against their eviction (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

2nd : Publication of the official election results: Cambodian People's Party (90 seats), Sam Rainsy Party (26 seats), Human Rights Party (3 seats), FUNCINPEC ( 2 seats) and Norodom Ranariddh party (2 seats).

15th : Yash Ghai, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Human rights in Cambodia, resigns before the end of his mandate. The Kenyan jurist announced his resignation with a strong wish: that his successor receive the full support from the Human Rights Council, all the UN organisations and the international community. During the three years he worked as Special Representative for Human rights in Cambodia, Yash Ghai did not stop battling it out with Hun Sen, through an exchange of public declarations and media announcements. His position was not renewed as he asked. The UN Human Rights Council decided at the end of September to appoint a special Rapporteur for a duration of one year.

16th : American Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte announces in Cambodia an “initial” contribution of US$1.8 million for the year 2008 from the United States to the ECCC's international (UN) part. Even though the American Congress lifted budget restrictions concerning American aid to direct development in Cambodia in 2005, the legal body continues to assert its condition that in order for the country to benefit from any American participation, the Congress must be sure that the tribunal is acknowledged as being in accordance with “international standards” and is not just a “show”. The donation comes as a blessing to the ECCC, always looking for additional funding. The ECCC’s initial budget was revised upward since the first official estimations.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 16/09/2008. John D. Negroponte, the American Deputy Secretary of State (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

24th : The inauguration of the Fourth Legislature, held at the National Assembly and presided over by the King, and the MPs swearing-in ceremony at the Royal Palace, take place, exceptionally, without any anomaly. Prime Minister Hun Sen's new mandate was officially recognised by King Norodom Sihamoni. September 24th 2008 was also the 15th Anniversary of the Constitution of the Kingdom of Cambodia.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 24/09/2008. Newly-elected MPs on their way to the Royal Palace (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

25th : The new government of Cambodia is validated. Only seven Ministers from the former governmental team happen not to be part of the new one.

King Sihamoni issues a Royal Pardon for his half-brother Norodom Ranariddh upon the request of the Prime Minister. On the 17th, Hun Sen gave his consent for the prince’s return to the country, since his party, the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) finally acknowledged the legislative elections results and called for a quick formation of the new government. Prince Ranariddh went into exile in February 2007 after a complaint was filed against him for Breach of Trust in the case of the selling of the headquarters of the FUNCINPEC, the party he once led. He was sentenced to 18 months in prison and fined US$150,000. Norodom Ranariddh’s appointment as personal superior advisor to the King of Cambodia in early December confirmed his retirement from the country’s political life, since at the end of September, shortly after his return to Cambodia, he refused the offer to lead his party, the NRP.

OCTOBER: corruption, Reporters Without Borders and Cambodian-Thai conflict

8th : The OSJI (Open Society Justice Initiative) organisation, one of the main bodies in charge of observing the Khmer Rouge tribunal, calls donors “to require, as a condition for any future aid to the tribunal and the transfer of promised donations, that serious concern about recurring allegations of corruption within the ECCC be resolved, and that the tribunal give an answer to complaints of corruption”. The OSJI was the first, in February 2007, to denounce the obligation for Cambodians to give part of their salary to government officials in order to be given jobs at the tribunal.

15th : A new incident on the Cambodian-Thai border, near the Preah Vihear temple, gives rise to fears of an open conflict among the population. The incident, which saw soldiers opening fire, claimed three lives on the Cambodian side.

Prasat Preah Vihear (Preah Vihear, Cambodia), 07/11/ 2008. Barbed wire along the border crossing between Thailand and Cambodia (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

24th : The 2008 Annual Press Freedom Index, published by Reporters Without Borders (RSF), sees Cambodia dropping from the 85th to the 126th place (out of 173 countries), which makes the Kingdom come down to the same level as Colombia. RSF justified Cambodia’s bad result with “the assassination of a journalist, apparently organised by a policeman, and the strengthening of media control during the legislative elections”.

NOVEMBER : Hok Lundy, Gunnar Bergstrom and economic crisis

7th : Cambodia's growth rate should be around 4,75% in 2009 and reach its lowest level since 1993, according to conclusions made by a mission of economists of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

9th : Hok Lundy, the country's top Police Chief – and holding that position since 1994 – dies in a helicopter crash as he was on his way to his native province of Svay Rieng in South-East Cambodia. He went on this trip straight after the commemoration of the 55th Anniversary of the Kingdom's independence.

15th : Thirty years after he first set foot in Cambodia, the Swede Gunnar Bergstrom comes back to the country to present his apologies. After visiting the Khmer Rouge in August 1978 , he went back to his homeland convinced of the goodness of the Khmer Rouge regime, without suspecting the tragic happenings going on in the meantime in Cambodia. He later realised his mistake and decided to move on.

DECEMBER : International aid, budget, bird flu and justice

5th : The Minister of Economy and Finance announces at the end of a Development and Cooperation Forum in Cambodia that donor-countries and international organisations promised to grant the country a billion dollars for the year 2009. China comes as the first “benefactor”, with 257 million dollars, followed by the European Union with 214 million dollars, and Japan, with a 113 million-dollar donation. Other good news for Cambodia: donors now announce their donation promises for the next 3 to 5 coming years, when before their announcements only applied to the coming year.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 03/12/2008. Development and Cooperation Forum of Cambodia (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

8th : The two International and Cambodian Co-Prosecutors at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) state their “disagreement upon the appropriateness of opening new judicial investigations into crimes committed in various locations throughout Cambodia by certain persons considered to be senior leaders of the Khmer Rouge or persons most responsible for crimes under that regime. The Cambodian population, and victims first, insists on the fact that the five former Khmer Rouge leaders and criminals should not be the only ones to appear before the tribunal.

9th : The National Assembly adopts the 2009 National Budget. It amounts to more than 1.8 billion dollars, i.e. a 28% increase compared with the 2008 budget. In a context of border crisis with Thailand, the Ministry of Defence is allocated a massive 160 million dollars, meaning a 68,8% rise in its budget.

12th : A new human case of bird flu, a young Cambodian man who contracted the virus at the end of November 2008, is confirmed. After resting at the hospital, he was discharged safe and sound. He is the 8th human case of virulent bird flu in Cambodia since February 2nd 2005, when the Cambodian authorities first announced a case of human contamination by the H5N1 virus. No new bird flu case had been declared since the death of a teenager in April 2007.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 11/11/2008. Campaign against bird flu during the Water Festival (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

18th : Kem Sokha, president of the Human Rights Party, calls a press conference to announce that the time has come for the HRP and the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) to make their alliance come true. The idea had been mentioned many times after the July 27th legislative elections.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 18/12/2008. Kem Sokha, president of the Human Rights Party, at a press conference (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

26th : The King-Father announces in a communiqué from his home in Beijing that he will not return to Cambodia in February 2009 as planned, due his poor health. Now 87, the former King of Cambodia is currently being treated for cancer for the third time.

31st : Almost five years after their arrest, followed by their much disputed condemnation to 20 years of imprisonment for the murder of high-profile union leader Chea Vichea, the Supreme Court of Cambodia ruled the provisional release of Born Samnang and Sok Sam Oeun. Their case is sent back to the Court of Appeal, who will have to reopen an investigation. Many international organisations for Human rights, as well as union organisations, had expressed their demands and renewed their pleas during the past few weeks. They welcomed the ruling with much enthusiasm.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 31/12/2008. Born Samnang, after the Supreme Court hearing which ruled his provisional release (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

The first part of this retrospective on the news in Cambodia in 2008 was published on January 1st 2009

Friday, January 02, 2009

Retrospective on the news in Cambodia for 2008 (Part I)

01-01-2009
By Ka-set in English
Click here to read the article in French
Click here to read the article in Khmer


Kambol, Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 4/02/2008. Nuon Chea, former Brother Nr 2 during the Khmer Rouge Regime, at his first appearance at the pre-trial chambers of the ECCC (Extraordinary Chambers at the Courts of Cambodia) (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

Legislative elections, listing of the Preah Vihear temple followed by an open conflict opposing Cambodia and Thailand, new decisive steps at the tribunal in charge of trying former Khmer Rouge leaders and criminals, food crisis, world financial meltdown... The year 2008 was for sure an eventful one, considering the size of the little Kingdom of Cambodia. Ka-set journalists applied themselves to report and analyse the richness of the news that happened from the beginning of the year 2008 and more particularly from March 27th, date of the public launching of the independent news website cambodia.ka-set.info about Cambodia and Cambodians abroad and available in Khmer, French and English, www.ka-set.info. On the occasion of the new year 2009, the independent media editorial team offers its readers the opportunity to go back, with a two-part publication, over the main facts of the year that passed.

JANUARY: The dengue fever, Mia Farrow and the FBI

4th : The dengue control Department at the Ministry of Health announces 407 dead following the epidemic outburst of dengue fever in 2007. The epidemic of haemorrhagic dengue fever was the deadliest in the country since 1998.

20th : The American actress Mia Farrow is denied the right by Cambodian authorities to organise a ceremony on behalf of the “Dream for Darfur” organisation, at the Tuol Sleng Museum of Genocide in Phnom Penh. The goal was to draw attention to the humanitarian crisis which has befallen that area of Sudan, and in the meantime condemn China, one of the main trade partners dealing with the African state. The Cambodian government refuses to see its Chinese ally targeted on the Cambodian territory.

22nd : Exactly four years before, popular trade union leader Chea Vichea was assassinated by strangers in broad daylight, in front of a news stand in the middle of Phnom Penh. One hundred or so union activists, Human rights defenders and representatives of the opposition gather on the anniversary day on the crime scene to pay homage to the key-figure of the union movement and urge once more the government for a re-opening of the investigation, for the liberation of Born Samnang and Sok Sam Oeun, sentenced to 20 years in jail for the murder of the union leader after a much criticised trial, and for Chea Vichea's true murderers to be arrested.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 22/01/2008. Sam Rainsy, head of the opposition Sam Rainsy party, during the 4th commemoration of the assassination of union leader Chea Vichea (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

31st : The United States open a FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) office in Phnom Penh. The office is inaugurated by Robert Mueller, FBI director. The bureau is set to collaborate with the Cambodian authorities in the fight against terrorism and cross-border crime.

FEBRUARY: Khmers rouges and evictions

7th : The second Public Hearing of the tribunal (the ECCC) established to try former Khmer Rouge leaders sees civil parties taking part for the first time in the judicial proceedings, a real step forward in the history of international penal law.

15th : Sam Bith, former Khmer Rouge guerilla commander, dies at the age of 76. In December 2002, he was found guilty and sentenced to life imprisonment for the July 26th 1994 attack of a train linking Sihanoukville to Phnom Penh. The attack had claimed the lives of 16 passengers and had ended with the abduction and murder of three Western backpackers.

22nd : International and local organisations for the Defence of Human rights expressed their indignation facing new violence upsurges concerning land conflicts. In front of an escalation of repressive methods used against inhabitants, they called for an immediate moratorium on evictions until legal dispositions are finally adopted to protect victims of forced displacements. According to an astounding report published by Amnesty International on February 11th, more than 150,000 Cambodians throughout the country are exposed to the risk of losing their home.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 22/12/2007. Dey Krohom inhabitants resisting eviction by 7NG company employees Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 22/01/2008. (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

26th-27th : During two days, the ECCC held on-site investigations at Choeung Ek, site of the mass graves and now a memorial, and at the former S-21 torture centre, now the Tuol Sleng Museum of Genocide. Duch, the former director of Tuol Sleng, where more than 14,000 people suffered torture before being executed at Choeung Ek, was present for a reconstruction of events. The sessions were also attended by surviving prisoners.

Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 27/02/2008. Policeman, outside S-21 torture centre, during a reconstruction with its former director, Duch (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

MARCH: The Killing Fields

30th : Death of Dith Pran. His friendship story with an American journalist in Cambodia in the 1970s and his ordeal through the Khmer Rouge regime were adapted into a film production in 1984 by Roland Joffé in The Killing Fields. Dith Pran died of cancer at the age of 65 in New Jersey (United States).

APRIL: Marriage, police and fried chicken

4th : The issuing of marriage certificates involving foreigners and Cambodian women is temporarily suspended by Cambodian authorities. The measure was taken with a view to fight human trafficking, the authorities explained. Since the beginning of the year, three south-Korean agencies in charge of organising marriages between Cambodian women and their would-be husbands have been shut down by the Ministry. The ban was lifted on November 17th.

22nd : Heng Pov, former Phnom Penh city police commissioner, is sentenced for the sixth time on Tuesday April 22nd, this time to 18 years of imprisonment. If one added up all of Heng Pov's sentences up to that day, the former commissioner would spend 58 years and 6 months in jail.

28th : Inauguration and opening with great pomp of the first KFC (Kentucky Fried Chicken) in Cambodia, located in Phnom Penh, on Monivong Boulevard.

MAY: Rice and corruption

5th : The creation of a community of rice-exporting countries fuels debates. Prime Minister Hun Sen sends a reassuring message to the Philippines, who takes a dim view of the establishment of an Organisation of Rice Exporting Countries (OREC) which would gather Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar together. The initiative appeared in a context of global inflation in rice prices.

Prey Nup, Kompong Som (Cambodia), 25/06/2004. Ploughing the rice fields in polder 1 (Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

16th : The Civil Society League, fighting corruption, organises a march towards the Cambodian National Assembly to hand in a report concerning the campaign they led in the country. The coalition, gathering about 40 local NGOs, collected between December and April more than a million fingerprints among citizens who were ready to denounce corruption. The anti-corruption law, demanded by donors, has been ready for ten years but left aside.




Phnom Penh (Cambodia), 16/05/2008. More than a million fingerprints against corruption...(Photo: John Vink / Magnum)

26th : Prime Minister Hun Sen lifts the ban on the exportations of Cambodian rice. The embargo had been decided two months earlier to curb the inflation of rice prices.

JUNE: Media and prostitutes

4th : About a hundred representatives of prostitutes denounce the new law against human trafficking in Cambodia, adopted in march 2008. According to them, it led to the shutting down of brothels and the often violent arrests of independent prostitutes by the police. The prostitutes were then sent to a so-called rehabilitation centre on the outskirts of the Cambodian capital.

11th : The organisation Reporters Without Borders (RSF) denounces the arrest of Dam Sith, editorial director for the daily newspaper Moneaksekar Khmer (Khmer Conscience) affiliated to the Sam Rainsy Party and calls for his liberation. His arrest came “a few weeks only before the legislative elections.” The journalist, jailed after a complaint for defamation and relaying of false information was lodged against him by Minister of Foreign Affairs Hor Namhong, was freed on June 15th after an intervention on the part of the head of government.

The second part of the retrospective on the news in Cambodia, from July to December 2008, as seen by the editorial team of Ka-set, will be published on Friday January 2nd.

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Review 2008: Two steps forward, one back

Are they really the "innocent" CPP leaders?

Wednesday, 31 December 2008

Written by Michael Hayes
The Phnom Penh Post


Cambodia continued to emerge last year as a bright spot in a region beset by turmoil, but the Kingdom remains plagued by the problems of its past and faces a shakey economic future

In 2008 several major developments took place in Cambodia that can be viewed as part of larger trends in the Kingdom's political and economic life, one of which has been unfolding for almost three decades.

National parliamentary elections took place on July 27 that saw the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) win a landslide victory.

Irregularities and cries of foul play included, nobody was surprised.

Requiring only a 50-percent-plus-1 majority to form a government, it was obvious to most observers before the election that the CPP would be able to form a government on its own, something it had not been able to do in the 1993, 1998 and 2003 polls.

The victory for Hun Sen caps a long, bare-knuckle process of political consolidation that gives the prime minister and his allies total control of all principal organs of state, including the National Assembly, the judiciary, the executive branch, the police and the military, from the national level down to provincial and commune levels as well. (This level of control has existed for years, but now it's official.)

The elections were also the final crushing defeat for the various political and military forces arrayed against the CPP during their struggles in the 1980s and 1990s, when three separate political movements and their attendant armed forces sought to oust the ruling party from power either by force or at the ballot box.

With the abysmal showing in this year's polls by Royalist political elements, former first prime minister Prince Norodom Ranariddh and his erstwhile Funcinpec allies have become a spent political force, with supporters scrambling to join the CPP, angling for a paid position on the Royal Palace payroll or leaving politics altogether.

The CPP literally reigns supreme.

The Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) remains a legal and legitimate opposition party with an increased number of seats in Parliament. They have made gains in each election since 1998. Whether this will enable the party to translate concerns over the quality of governance on a range of issues into tangible policy outcomes is open to question.
"SEVERAL MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS TOOK PLACE IN CAMBODIA THAT CAN BE VIEWED AS PART OF LARGER TRENDS IN THE KINGDOM'S ... LIFE."
What's clear is that the SRP has been and will remain a vocal reflection of the ills that continue to plague the Kingdom, from widespread corruption, impunity, poverty and income disparities, to dysfunctional public services, human trafficking and land disputes, among others - all issues that the government says it has been, and continues to be, aware of, and has been, and will continue, to remain committed to resolving.

As somewhat of an adjunct of the CPP's victory over its enemies, the Khmer Rouge tribunal proceeded slowly in 2008, with the process marred by lingering accusations of corruption in the form of kickbacks and nepotism. This complicated additional requests for funding from international donors, an issue that is still outstanding and which keeps the KRT on a short budgetary leash.

On the good news side, it is expected that the trial for Duch, the former director of the S-21 detention centre, may begin early next year.

Sources say that information that will become public during this trial will lend credence to the supposition that the tribunal is worth the expense.

On the economic and social development front, Cambodia's aid juggernaut continues apace, with foreign donors pledging more than US$950 million at this year's donor conference in early December, an increase of almost $300 million from pledges made in 2007. This international vote of confidence in Cambodia's ability to use donor funds wisely enables the Kingdom to remain one of the highest per capita aid recipients in the world.

For several years now, some Cambodia watchers have said that with the current level of political stability and consistently high economic growth rates, the only thing that could derail the continued development of the economy and the contentious and snaillike process of reform would be external factors beyond Cambodia's control.

The shoe dropped on this front in 2008.

First, the decision by Unesco in July to list Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage Site devolved into a military standoff between Cambodian and Thai forces on the border surrounding the temple. The dispute has simmered since and remains unresolved.

Observers on this side of the border (and internationally outside of Thailand) see the dispute as a reflection of the rancorous state of Thai domestic politics, with Cambodia being used as a fall guy.

However, the temple fracas did produce one interesting and extremely rare phenomena. For the first time in living memory, the entire Cambodian population was unanimously and fiercely united on a single issue. For those who have watched Cambodians kill one another for much of the last 40 years, it was a welcome and inspiring sight.

But Cambodia has had to pay a price for Thai domestic turmoil. Witness the closing of Bangkok's international airport by anti-Thaksin supporters and the related cancellations of hotel reservations in Siem Reap. Sources say some hotels are now struggling with single-digit occupancy rates - and this during the so-called high season.

This situation has been drastically compounded by the American-led global financial and economic meltdown, the full effects of which have yet to be felt worldwide.

World Bank economic growth forecasts for Cambodia have already been dropped to 4.9 percent for 2009. This is in contrast to an average of 11.1 percent for the years 2004 to 2007.

With an economy overly reliant on garment exports to the US and tourism arrivals, the question on many people's minds is, How bad is it going to get?

Need a New Year's resolution? Tighten your belt!