ASEAN still toothless after 40 years

Nov 27, 2007
By Alex Au
Asia Times (Hong Kong)

SINGAPORE - When United Nations special envoy Ibrahim Gambari landed in Singapore prepared to brief Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other East Asian leaders on his mission to Myanmar, he was told at the last minute that the briefing was off.

The senior diplomat, charged with mediating national reconciliation between Myanmar's ruling generals and its oppressed pro-democracy movement, had effectively flown halfway around the world for nothing.

The 40th anniversary summit of ASEAN, a grouping comprised of 10 Southeast Asian countries, will be remembered more as a shambles than the celebration of the beginning of a new era. ASEAN's leaders were in particular expected to show the world progress on the Myanmar issue, but ended up looking more disunited - if not outright cowardly.

They also inked agreements towards creating an integrated ASEAN economic community, while at the same time the grouping's largest member Indonesia had just handed down a controversial decision against a Singaporean investor which ratcheted up the risks for all foreign and ASEAN investors.

The summit's first working dinner for the 10 ASEAN leaders on November 19 was gummed up by the Myanmar issue. As ASEAN's current chair, Singapore had invited Gambari to brief all the other ASEAN leaders on his mission's progress. In addition, with leaders from China, South Korea and Japan in attendance as part of the post-summit "ASEAN+3" roundtable, Gambari was also slated to brief those countries' leaders.

Prior to the event, when Singapore sounded out the other ASEAN leaders on the meeting's scheduled proceedings, none of them at the time had objected to the planned Gambari briefing. According to an unnamed diplomat quoted in the Straits Times, Singapore's main daily, even the Myanmar government explicitly said it had no objections to the briefing.

But at the dinner, and while Gambari was en route from New York, Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein suddenly shifted his government's position and refused to agree to an ASEAN briefing by the UN envoy. Myanmar's internal affairs were not the business of other ASEAN countries, he insisted.

Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia disagreed, pointing out that with global attention on the situation it could no longer be considered a domestic matter. One leader reportedly told Myanmar: "The rest of the world thinks that this is a matter that concerns ASEAN also and have begun to hit at us." Still Thein Sein refused to budge, forcing all the other leaders to climb down and severely embarrassing the group.

Just the week before, ASEAN had rejected the US Senate's call to suspend Myanmar from the grouping. Introduced by California Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer, the unanimously-approved resolution urged ASEAN to take "appropriate disciplinary measures, including suspension, until such time as the government of [Myanmar] has demonstrated improved respect for and commitment to human rights".

Ong Keng Yong, ASEAN's secretary general, said in reply that Myanmar was part of the ASEAN family and insisted that dialogue should be the way forward. Suspending Myanmar maybe be possible from the "perspective of American decision-makers ... but from our perspective we believe we should be a bit more circumspect", he said.

Ong also said Myanmar could simply walk away from ASEAN, as they "are quite happy to be left alone". "They are not scared, not afraid of being isolated. They can just shut the door and go into hibernation."

In a sense, his estimation of Myanmar's intransigence was proved right, except that Myanmar was prepared not only to thumb its nose against the West, but against its ASEAN neighbors as well. That being the case, the group might as well have suspended Myanmar as the US Senate's resolution urged.

However, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia did not want the group to set a new precedent of interfering in a member state's affairs, and generally objected to ASEAN taking a hard line against Myanmar. Even sanctions were ruled out once again. "Not only will they not work, but they will be counterproductive," Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong told reporters.

He was responding to the view of the Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates: "We think sanctions are important in order to proceed." Socrates was in Singapore representing the European Union at the ASEAN-EU dialogue. The same week as the ASEAN summit, the EU adopted sanctions against 1,207 Myanmar firms and expanded visa bans and asset freezes on the country's military rulers.

Toothless charter

Despite the Gambari briefing fiasco, ASEAN's leaders made a big show of supposed unity at the summit by unveiling and signing a new charter. Throughout the drafting process, most of the details were kept secret, though advance publicity had mentioned moving the grouping towards a "rules-based" orientation.

While the primary aim of the new charter was to facilitate a speedier integration of the 10 members' economies, to meet the twin challenges of a rising China and India, in the months leading up to the summit the new charter's provision for a new "human rights commission" was also highlighted.

When the final document was leaked, it proved right all those who had the lowest of low expectations. The document was full of motherhood statements about promoting a "people-oriented ASEAN" and having "respect for the different cultures, languages and religions of the peoples".

As for human rights, it said loftily that there should be "adherence to the rule of law, good governance, the principles of democracy and constitutional government" together with "respect for fundamental freedoms, the promotion and protection of human rights and the promotion of social justice", but the establishment of a new human rights commission didn't figure in the final draft.

Instead it provided for an unspecified "ASEAN human rights body" which "shall operate in accordance with the terms of reference to be determined by the ASEAN foreign ministers meeting". At the same time, the charter enshrined among its principles "non-interference in the internal affairs of ASEAN member states" and "respect for the right of every member state to lead its national existence free from external interference, subversion and coercion".

That being the case, it is difficult to see how the new charter can make any difference to the situation in Myanmar, or any other rights-abusing ASEAN country, for that matter. For instance, no provision is made in the new charter for sanctions or expulsion from the grouping if a member state refuses to live up to any of these broad obligations.

In any case, the charter can only come into toothless force after all 10 countries have ratified it. Already, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo signaled a likely roadblock ahead. "The expectation of the Philippines is that if Myanmar signs the charter, it is committed to returning to the path of democracy and releasing [opposition leader] Aung San Suu Kyi," she said. "Until the Philippines Congress sees that happen, it would have extreme difficulty in ratifying the ASEAN charter."

The same day the ASEAN charter was signed, the leaders also inked additional agreements on economic integration and two declarations on the environment. The economic agreement calls for an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015 which in theory will form a single market "where goods, services, investments and capital, as well as skilled workers, will be able to flow freely".

The blueprint says that four priority sectors, namely air services, e-commerce, healthcare and tourism, will have all barriers to services trade removed by 2010. Such designs, however, will remain a pipe dream unless there is much more political will than hence demonstrated. For example, ASEAN countries, with few exceptions, still regulate air links with each other through highly restrictive bilateral air services agreements. Indonesia has so far banned all foreign budget airlines from operating into its airports to protect its own domestic budget carriers.

Moreover, while ASEAN leaders were hammering out liberalization measures in Singapore, Indonesia made an alarming decision against Singapore state investment vehicle Temasek Holdings that promises to dampen broad investor sentiment. Jakarta's competition watchdog, the Business Competition Supervisory Commission, told Temasek it had to divest within two years its stakes in one of two telecom local companies, ruling its crossholdings violated anti-monopoly laws.

It also fined Temasek and eight linked companies 25 billion rupiah (US$2.7 million) each for allegedly manipulating Indonesia's telecom market. Temasek has protested the decision and plans to appeal the controversial ruling to a Jakarta court. In its current form, ASEAN is notably powerless to mediate and hand down binding rulings on such disputes.

Hence, ASEAN's dream of forging a rules-based single economic community from its current talk-shop incarnation is still far from reality, freshly inked mutual agreements notwithstanding. And with ASEAN's continued resistance to international calls to suspend or at least sanction Myanmar, despite the signing of a new rights-promoting charter, the grouping looks for the foreseeable future to remain a paper tiger.

Alex Au is an independent social and political commentator, freelance writer and blogger based in Singapore. He often speaks at public forums on politics, culture and gay issues.

ASEAN to form Asian Union?

By Stanley A Weiss
Global Research, November 25, 2007
Asia Times - 2007-11-21

Sifting schizoid ASEAN's reality from rhetoric: ASEAN to form Asian Union?

Prepare yourself for a debilitating bout of schizophrenia this week as leaders from across Southeast Asia meet in Singapore to mark the 40th anniversary of their Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

If you believe the summit speeches, the 10-member ASEAN is the world's most successful regional bloc, aside from the European Union, having fostered the stability that fueled the region's phenomenal economic growth in recent decades. It will be a "historic moment" as presidents and prime ministers sign their "landmark" charter - a "bold and visionary regional constitution" committing their nations to democracy, the rule of law and human rights. (ASEAN comprises Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia and Brunei.)

If you believe the critics, ASEAN is at best a toothless talk shop where diplomats are reduced, literally, to song and dance routines; at worst, an apologist for oppressive regimes because its beloved "ASEAN Way" puts dialogue, consensus and non-interference above decision-making, compliance and adherence to universal rights. The idealistic charter, like ASEAN itself, is made a mockery by the inclusion of monk-crushing Myanmar, not to mention communist Vietnam, military-ruled Thailand and the absolute monarchy of Brunei.

Who to believe? Actually, both - and neither. And perhaps no one knows this better than Surin Pitsuwan, the former Thai foreign minister and ASEAN's next secretary general. "We welcome all and threaten none," he recently told this author in Washington during an exclusive interview. "And therein lies the paradox. ASEAN's weakness and informality is its strength. But to move further, it will need a lot of power and resources."

An ASEAN veteran - the ebullient 58-year-old diplomat was instrumental in securing Asian peacekeepers for East Timor - Surin agrees that the new charter is "what it can be at this moment in time". But citing the "economic pressures" of globalization and "fierce competition" from China and India, he says bluntly, "ASEAN will have to adapt and readjust."

Indeed, comparing the charter's lofty rhetoric against the realities of ASEAN at 40 years old reveals a region that is either experiencing a mid-life crisis or finally coming of age. Culturally, the new charter proclaims Southeast Asia to be a single "community" united by "one vision, one identity". But given the extraordinary diversity of the region's 577 million people - Muslim-majority Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei; Buddhist-majority Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos; Christian-majority Philippines - forging a common sense of community will as ever be no easy task.

People "must develop a dual identity of being a national of a member state and an ASEAN citizen", says Surin, a Muslim and intellectual from southern Thailand who has called for reconciliation to end his homeland's separatist Muslim insurgency. "Without a sense of belonging, economic and security cooperation will not get anywhere."

Politically, the region's leaders also seem torn between country and community. The "fundamental importance" of "sovereignty" and "non-interference" still comes before any talk of ensuring democracy in their new charter. They pledge to create a "human rights body" and to deal with any "serious breach" of ASEAN rules, but they leave the details of enforcement for later and make no mention of sanctioning or expelling errant members.

And yet ASEAN is evolving, increasingly flexing its diplomatic muscle on one another's domestic matters - from the Cambodian political crisis a decade ago, to the Indonesian deforestation fires that frequently choke the region in haze, to the recent Myanmar crackdown on street demonstrators, over which it expressed "revulsion", an unprecedented rebuke to a member state. "ASEAN has abandoned a strict application of the non-interference principle for some time," says former Indonesian foreign minister Ali Alatas, who helped draft ideas for the new charter, which he says "further recalibrates the non-interference principle".

Myanmar will remain the litmus test for how much the organization is willing to recalibrate - if and how it can maintain both regional unity and international legitimacy. "[Myanmar] is a drag on ASEAN and they recognize it as such," a senior American diplomat in the region told this author. "But they have a dilemma. They don't want to cast [Myanmar] adrift to become a satellite of China."

Economically, the region needs to get serious about its ambitious goal of an EU-like "single market" by 2015. Most immediately, protectionist tariffs and import duties - which have kept trade among ASEAN members at a fraction of its trade with the rest of the world - must be eliminated.

At the same time, the region must narrow the huge gaps between rich (Singapore per capita income: US$29,500), poor (Indonesia: $1,600) and poorest (Myanmar: $200) and between the manufacturing-heavy economies of Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand and agricultural-based Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. "These gaps are a challenge to a single, integrated community," says Surin. "We must get serious about helping one another."

And the stakes couldn't be higher. "The road to reconciliation between the West and the Muslim world runs through Southeast Asia," argues Surin, noting that more than half the region's population will soon be Muslim. "We have to try to keep them moderate, accommodating, progressive and constructively engaged with the outside world."

And so while the ASEAN way may frustrate its critics, it remains for these diverse countries trying to move forward the only way. "From the outside, you can wish for a lot," says Surin. "Idealism serves us well as a benchmark to aim at, but realism is the stuff of our daily work. We must make the best of what we have and try to improve it for tomorrow." Put another way, if life truly begins at 40, then ASEAN is just getting started.

Stanley A Weiss is founding chairman of Business Executives for National Security, a nonpartisan organization based in Washington DC. This article is a personal comment.

Birthday blues for ASEAN

Sep 6, 2007
By Ralph A Cossa
Asia Times (Hong Kong)

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) turned 40 this summer, raising the question of whether the regional grouping is facing a mid-life crisis. Or, alternatively, is it on the verge of maturing into a more cohesive and relevant organization capable of carrying out its self-proclaimed "driver's seat" role in East Asia community-building?

Only time will tell, but there are some encouraging signs that ASEAN may be coming of age, beginning with the creation of the new ASEAN Charter to manage "the key challenges of regional integration, globalization, economic growth, and new technologies". A formal charter would add a "legal personality" and a greater degree of cohesiveness and clarity to earlier efforts to build an ASEAN community (or more precisely, three interrelated communities: an ASEAN security community, an ASEAN economic community and an ASEAN socio-cultural community).

ASEAN's Eminent Persons Group (EPG) provided the assembled leadership a draft charter at the 2006 annual ASEAN summit in Cebu, Philippines. Since then, an ASEAN high-level task force has been hard at work, refining (read: toning down) some of the more dramatic suggestions, such as a controversial section recommending sanctions, including expulsion from ASEAN, for those violating the charter, which has reportedly been dropped.

The EPG also recommended that ASEAN relax its full-consensus decision-making style; it remains to be seen whether this suggestion, and one opposing "extra-constitutional" methods of changing government, as happened last year in Thailand, will make the final cut.

One controversial provision that apparently did make the cut last month was the establishment of a new Human Rights Commission, over initial objections by Myanmar, among others. While the final version has not yet been seen - it is scheduled to be unveiled and approved at the November ASEAN summit in Singapore - the charter is expected to "accelerate ASEAN integration" while making it a more "rules-based" organization.

One ASEAN senior official noted that the new charter "would also help put into place a system in which more ASEAN agreements would be effectively implemented and enforced long after the symbolic signing ceremonies". To those who have long accused ASEAN of valuing form over substance, this will be a welcome development.

More good news came in the naming of former Thai foreign minister Surin Pitsuwan as ASEAN's next secretary general, effective next January. Surin, a Muslim, is seen as a proactive supporter of greater "constructive engagement" both within ASEAN and between ASEAN and its neighbors. He will, according to incumbent secretary general Ong Keng Yong, "have a clear direction and more of a mandate" as a result of the charter. There is no questioning his energy, enthusiasm, and commitment - what remains to be seen is how much of a collective voice he will be able to employ, and to what end.

As part of its "coming of age" process, ASEAN is also developing a "plan of action" to enhance its 10-year-old Treaty of the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ), which prohibits the development, testing, or basing of nuclear weapons within its territories while permitting nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

I would offer a suggestion to those tasked with drawing up the implementation plan, namely an amendment to the SEANWFZ that would prohibit reprocessing or enrichment activities within the region, thus closing one of the current Non-Proliferation Treaty loopholes that have contributed to the current difficulties with North Korea and Iran. This should increase the treaty’s attractiveness to those parties, including the United States, that have not yet acceded to the treaty.

Meanwhile, Washington's relations with ASEAN have never been deeper while appearing so shallow. US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, at last month's annual ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting, applauded the effort to develop a charter that "strengthened democratic values, good governance, the rule of law, and respect for human rights and freedom".

He also marked the 30th anniversary of US-ASEAN relations by refining and strengthening the Enhanced Partnership Plan of Action signed between Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her ASEAN counterparts during the July 2006 ARF meeting. This action plan grew out of the Enhanced Partnership joint vision statement announced by US President George W Bush and assembled ASEAN leaders during the first ever US-ASEAN summit along the sidelines of the November 2005 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting.

The plan of action guides cooperation as ASEAN advances toward its goal of political, economic and social integration while enhancing cooperation on critical transnational challenges such as terrorism, narcotics trafficking, infectious diseases, and protecting the environment.

It complements the August 2006 US-ASEAN Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement that established a regular and formal dialogue on trade and investment matters and a joint work plan to enhance two-way trade that exceeded US$168 billion last year. Collectively, ASEAN is America's fourth-largest trading partner; to date, US companies have invested nearly $90 billion in ASEAN countries.

That's the good news. Unfortunately, when it comes to US-ASEAN relations, form has not matched substance. Rice this year missed her second ARF meeting (out of three opportunities) and Bush canceled the full US-ASEAN summit, which had been planned by Singapore after this year's APEC summit.

As a result, Bush's third summit with the "ASEAN Seven" - the ASEAN members of APEC (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam; the other members of ASEAN are Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar) - appears to be a consolation prize, rather than another significant step forward. One frequently hears the accusation that Washington is "neglecting" Southeast Asia, despite the above-cited significant advancements.

To correct this perception, and given the fact that Bush has yet to make his first trip to East Asia this year, serious consideration should be given to arranging such a visit coincident with this year's Singapore-hosted East Asia Summit, to underscore Washington's support for ASEAN's coming-of-age process. It would further permit Bush to be invited as a special guest to the East Asia Summit, while skirting tricky membership questions, thus showing support for East Asia community-building as well.

Ralph A Cossa (pacforum@hawaii.rr.com) is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS.