Abishit to clarify the souring of ties with Cambodia during his visit to New York [-Is it another Thai-style clarification filled with innuendos?]

Abhisit to clarify Thai issues while he is in the US

September 21, 2010
The Nation

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will clarify and explain issues of economics, politics and foreign policy to audiences during his visit to the United States from Wednesday to Saturday.

He will be telling investors about the Map Ta Phut problems, the souring of ties with Cambodia and the auction of 3G licences at the US-Asean Business Council on Friday, a Government House official said yesterday.

Abhisit hopes the foreign business community and investors will understand his government’s policies and justice system, the official said.

The premier will also attend the second US-Asean summit on Friday to emphasise the importance of America’s role in building up security in Southeast Asia. Leaders from both sides will look for ways to prevent protectionism and help turn the US and Asean into strategic partners.

On Thursday Abhisit will attend the opening ceremony of the 65th UN General Assembly at the UN headquarters in New York. The assembly this year will include a high-level meeting on the Millennium Development Goals in order to push member countries, notably developing countries, to achieve the goal by 2015.

The premier will also meet the media while he’s in the US, and is scheduled for interviews with CNN and CNBC. Foreign media, notably CNN, was accused of being prejudiced when reporting on Abhisit’s handling the red-shirt protest earlier this year.

Abhisit will also hold bilateral meetings with many foreign leaders, including Slovenian Prime Minister Borut Pahor, Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, and also attend a luncheon with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. A dinner reception hosted by US President Barack Obama, a speech at the Council of Foreign Relations and a meeting with Thais in New York is also on the PM’s itinerary.

He is scheduled to return to Thailand on Sunday morning.

Thailand, Cambodia look beyond Thaksin

(Photo: Reuters)

Sep 18, 2010
By James O'Toole
Asia Times Online

PHNOM PENH - Former Thai premier and fugitive from justice Thaksin Shinawatra's arrival on his private jet in Phnom Penh last year was broadcast live on local television, the climax of weeks of diplomatic intrigue that brought relations between Thailand and Cambodia to their lowest point in years.

Arriving nominally as an economics adviser to the Cambodian government, the ousted leader served mainly as a pawn in a spat between Bangkok and Phnom Penh that saw the countries withdraw their respective ambassadors and engage in an unflattering war of words over the next several months.

The abrupt announcement of Thaksin's "resignation" from his post last month has been cause for rapprochement, with ambassadors returned to their posts and a meeting scheduled between Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and his Thai counterpart Abhisit Vejjajiva in New York next week.

Yet for all the pomp attached to Thaksin's comings and goings, the current rapprochement between Thailand and Cambodia can only steal the spotlight for so long from their more fundamental disagreement over their shared border. Ironically, Thaksin's advisory appointment caused significant economic harm for Cambodia.

In retaliation, Bangkok tore up a 2001 memorandum of understanding on joint development of a 26,000 square kilometer area in the Gulf of Thailand thought to contain significant oil and gas reserves. Cambodia's exports to Thailand plunged 50% year-on-year in the first six months of 2010, while many Thai investors have likely been dissuaded from investing in Cambodia in view of the acrimony between the countries.

Politically, though, Thaksin provided Hun Sen with a chance to ratchet up tensions with a traditional enemy and intensify his border rhetoric to a rather outlandish extent. "Do you dare to swear on magic that could break your neck, on a plane crash or a dissolution of the countries, that your soldiers did not invade Cambodia's territory?" Hun Sen said in a speech last year, apparently addressing Abhisit.

Tension over the border erupted in 2008 after the listing of Preah Vihear temple as a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage site for Cambodia, as both sides laid claim to a 4.6-square-kilometer patch of land adjacent to the temple. The issue flared up again last month after a meeting of UNESCO's World Heritage committee in which Cambodia submitted management plans for the temple.

The countries are in the process of demarcating their border, but talks have been stalled since last year pending approval of the latest round of negotiations in the Thai parliament. Abhisit and his Democrat party-led government are under intense pressure from hardline elements of the nationalist "yellow shirt" movement not to give any ground in the territorial dispute, and a vote in the Thai parliament to approve the latest negotiations was again postponed last month, to the ire of Cambodian leaders.

Cambodia has been pressing aggressively to bring attention to the dispute, appealing to both the United Nations and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for assistance. ASEAN assistance was required, Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong said, to help avoid "large-scale armed conflict" along a frontier in which at least seven soldiers have been killed in periodic skirmishes since 2008.

These appeals have irked Thai officials, who have repeatedly stated their opposition to border talks in any forum but a bilateral one. The move to cut ties with Thaksin may be the latest element of Cambodia's border strategy, said Ou Virak, president of the Cambodian Center for Human Rights.

"It gives Cambodia the upper hand when the Thaksin issue has been played out," Ou Virak said, with the move allowing Phnom Penh to "separate the Preah Vihear conflict or tension from other kinds of issues".

Amid its diplomatic maneuvering, Cambodia is also bidding very publicly to upgrade its military capabilities at the border. This week, the government announced the purchase of dozens of T55 tanks and armored personnel carriers.

Meanwhile, in a bizarre bit of corporate charity that has drawn condemnation from rights groups, a local television station is collecting donations to help build reinforced concrete bunkers for combat troops at the border.

Carlyle Thayer, a professor at the Australian Defense Force Academy, said these efforts were largely "grandstanding" for the benefit of a domestic audience. "You can't take it at face value - there's no way that Cambodia is ever going to acquire the military power to take on Thailand in a conventional military conflict," Thayer said.

He said the militarization that Hun Sen has been pushing in relation to the border may be an effort to consolidate his support in the military, an institution that is the only conceivable counterweight to his near-absolute power. "It keeps the military on his side if you talk about an external threat or their importance," Thayer said.

For Thailand, the border dispute with Cambodia remains a key issue in a domestic political crisis that shows no sign of being resolved any time soon.

"The real reason that the border issue is a problem is not because Cambodia has these claims - the real reason the border issue is a problem is that the yellows accuse the reds [Thaksin supporters] of giving away a national asset," said Michael Montesano, a visiting fellow at Singapore's Institute for Southeast Asian Studies.
"The government doesn't want to have to deal with large-scale yellow-shirt demonstrations, and the lives of people in the government can be made very difficult and the lives of their families can be made very difficult if they are seen as somehow stepping back from the yellow cause."

Signs do, for the moment, point to a warming of relations. With the return of their ambassadors - absent for more than nine months - Cambodia and Thailand have now resumed full diplomatic ties, and Abhisit and Hun Sen are scheduled to meet again in October following their meeting in New York next week.

Montesano said Thaksin's "resignation" had in fact likely been brokered in secret talks between the two governments, with Bangkok perhaps hoping to get closer to apprehending red-shirt leaders known to be hiding out in Cambodia after the May 19 military crackdown on protests in Bangkok.

In a surprise move in early July, Cambodian authorities apprehended two Thais believed to be red-shirt supporters and suspected of involvement in a bomb attack on the headquarters of Bhum Jai Thai, the second-largest party in Abhisit's ruling coalition. Phnom Penh handed over the suspects to Thai authorities without a formal extradition request from Bangkok.

"This is to show the willingness of the government in fighting terrorism," Koy Kuong, Cambodia's Foreign Ministry spokesman, said after their arrests.

At the very least, Thaksin's departure has given Hun Sen and Abhisit the political cover to hold talks on economic issues and other obvious common interests. The border dispute continues to loom large in their relationship, however, and for the moment, appears indifferent to external developments.

Just one day after Thaksin's resignation was announced, the Cambodian government's Press and Quick Reaction Unit (PQRU) issued a statement accusing Abhisit of becoming "an accomplice and a sponsor of criminal-prone activity" by the yellow shirts.

"Once again, the [PQRU] urges Thai political figures to put an end to the malicious campaign of innuendo, suggestion and speculation to fault Cambodia by raising the issue of the Temple of Preah Vihear," the statement read.

James O'Toole is a Phnom Penh-based journalist.

Regal reception for Thai diplomat

Thai ambassador to Cambodia Prasas Prasasvinitchai: On a mission of amelioration

11/09/2010
Bangkok Post

The Thai ambassador to Cambodia Prasas Prasasvinitchai has presented his credentials to the country's King Sihamoni, a vital procedure that formalises his diplomatic posting.

Mr Prasas was initially scheduled to meet the Cambodian king on Oct 18 but Prime Minister Hun Sen brought the date forward to yesterday.

Phnom Penh is Mr Prasas' first ambassadorial post and hopefully not his last because he still has nearly a decade to go before he is due to retire.

In the past, Mr Prasas was mistaken by many of his bureaucratic peers and members of the media for a palad amphoe (assistant district chief) or phuwa (governor) due to his appearance.

He was often seen wearing Thai-style shirts usually worn by local administrators and kept a low profile.

Because he had to travel upcountry often and held many meetings with military and provincial officials, it is perhaps understandable that he left his suits and neckties at home.

A law graduate of Thammasat University, he has been working at the Foreign Ministry's Department of the Treaty and Legal Affairs since 1977, dealing with lots of nitty gritty matters, mostly concerning border issues.

His straightforward and outspoken manner sometimes has not gone down well with certain politicians, diplomat colleagues and state officials. Yet, his sincerity and sound logic have also enabled him to beat some tough diplomatic challenges with neighbouring countries and helped him overcome problems with other ministries.

It took him a long time before he was appointed head of the division of border affairs in 2000. It has been observed that officials with a background in law tend to be left behind when promotions are handed out at the Foreign Ministry.

Mr Prasas is one of only a very few working diplomats who have been able to read neighbouring countries' political manoeuvrings over border affairs. He remembers all the significant chapters of past border treaties with France and Britain and is well acquainted with military and interior officials based at the border.

Before moving to Rangoon and assuming the second most important post at the embassy there, he was made deputy head of the Department of East Asian Affairs for a few years.

During his posting to Burma, Mr Prasas was also called to provide support for negotiators at the Christchurch talks of the World Heritage Committee in 2007, which discussed Cambodia's solo attempt to seek the heritage listing of the Preah Vihear temple.

The whole of last year was truly a rough one for Thai-Cambodian relations and the Thai ambassador's seat in Phnom Penh was vacant for nearly 10 months.

Soon after being appointed ambassador to Cambodia, Mr Prasas left Bangkok but in less than a month he was recalled. That was nine days after ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was appointed a personal adviser to Hun Sen and economic adviser to the Cambodian government.

Now that the Thai and Cambodian ambassadors have got back to work, and with signs of eased tensions between the two sides, observers are keeping their fingers crossed as to how long the improved relations will last.

After all, the public hearing on the memorandum of understanding for the reconvening of the Joint Boundary Committee should be ready for Thai parliamentary scrutiny late next month.

If there are no further incidents to dampen bilateral ties, full normalisation of the troubled bilateral relations can then be expected.

If not, Mr Prasas will have to stand ready for yet another diplomatic storm.

Plenty of opportunities for [Thai] PM to talk with Hun Sen this year

September 5, 2010
THE NATION

The leaders of Thailand and Cambodia will have a private meeting in New York when they attend the second Asean-US Leaders' summit later this month.

Sources in Phnom Penh confirmed that apart from New York, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen have three opportunities to meet and discuss ways to boost bilateral relations.

Both Thai and Cambodian sources, who did not want to be identified, pointed out that after the New York meeting, the two leaders are scheduled to have another get together in Brussels on October 5-6, when they attend the Asia-Europe Meeting.

Two other opportunities will arise at the Asean Summit in Hanoi from October 27-29 and the fourth Ayawaddy-Chao Phya-Mekong Economic Cooperation summit on November 16-17 in Cambodia.

The sources said both sides were upbeat that relations would improve following the return of their ambassadors recently. There have been several high-level visits by senior officials in the two capitals.

[Bangkok Post] Welcome overtures [between Cambodia and Thailand]

5/09/2010
Bangkok Post
Editorial

Mr Abhisit may well also need to show his leadership skills in dealing with the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). The PAD has capitalised on the Preah Vihear issue by stoking nationalist sentiments and adding unnecessary tension to the situation. If the PAD persists in this course and creates obstacles to a fair settlement, then Mr Abhisit must show he can act independently and in the best interests of the country.

The news released by Prime Minister's Office Minister Ong-art Klampaibul on Friday that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva would meet his Cambodian counterpart Hun Sen at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Sept 24 is most welcome, and shows a strengthening of the recent trend that has seen diplomatic relations thawing between the two countries. Mr Ong-art made the announcement upon his return from Cambodia, where he reportedly met and had talks with Hun Sen for about an hour.

The news of the PM's upcoming face-to-face follows on the heels of the reinstatement of the ambassadors for both countries and the normalisation of diplomatic ties.

The ambassadors had been recalled in a tit-for-tat fashion following the appointment of fugitive ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra as Hun Sen's economic adviser last November. The reinstatement was a consequence of Thaksin's decision to quit the post.

Although the current state of relations is not quite jovial, it is a big improvement from the low point reached in late July after the contention over Cambodia's management plan for the Preah Vihear temple proposed to the World Heritage Committee at the WHC's annual meeting, held in Brasilia this year. Even before this the back and forth between the two countries was quite honestly making both sides look petulant and even childish.

While both sides deserve blame for the lack of diplomatic maturity, it was clearly the Cambodian PM's ill-advised appointment of Thaksin that set the stage for the worst of it. He could not have been unaware that taking on a fugitive from the Thai justice system, and one who is still greatly admired by the opposition to the present government, would provoke hostility from the Abhisit government. The fact that he announced his plan to appoint Thaksin as his economic adviser with great fanfare to a media horde as soon as he arrived at the Hua Hin airport to attend the 15th Asean summit, the first hosted by Thailand, is proof that provocation was his intent.

It can only be assumed that the reason for these actions was that Hun Sen was expecting Thaksin to regain power. The recent formal disassociation with Thaksin shows that he has reassessed the political situation in Thailand.

Mr Ong-art reported on Friday that the Cambodian prime minister said that Mr Abhisit should not be discouraged by criticism about his early rise to become prime minister.

''He has voiced confidence that Mr Abhisit will stay in the post for a long time and that the prime minister has grown stronger and proved his leadership skills,'' Mr Ong-art said.

Now is the time for Mr Abhisit to display these leadership skills. It might be tempting for him to hold a grudge against the Cambodian PM for the obvious attempts to humiliate his government, but Mr Abhisit would do much better to accept Hun Sen's peace offering and make moves to strengthen the natural ties between the two countries.

This, of course, will have to start with a negotiated agreement over the Preah Vihear temple. Indications are that this will be a prime topic between the two men in New York.

Mr Ong-art said he explained the legal requirements of the Thai side in the bilateral Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) to Hun Sen. A boundary agreement is key to resolving the dispute over the Preah Vihear buffer zone. A JBC meeting is scheduled for the coming week in Bangkok, but there is speculation it will be postponed until after the two leaders meet in New York.

Mr Abhisit may well also need to show his leadership skills in dealing with the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). The PAD has capitalised on the Preah Vihear issue by stoking nationalist sentiments and adding unnecessary tension to the situation. If the PAD persists in this course and creates obstacles to a fair settlement, then Mr Abhisit must show he can act independently and in the best interests of the country.

These interests very much include good relations with Cambodia. It is important that cooperative frameworks are put in place in many areas, especially economic and environmental, as Cambodia opens itself up to tourism and foreign investment. The two countries share a long border that will be getting busier and busier in the coming years. They also share the Gulf of Thailand, which besides having some of the world's best beaches, is also reported to have large undersea oil reserves.

Diplomacy set to pay dividend in Cambodia [-Bangkok just realizes that?]

Thailand seeks lead role in investment

6/09/2010
Phusadee Arunmas
Bangkok Post

Thailand hopes to regain its leadership in foreign investment in Cambodia over the next five years now that the two countries have resumed diplomatic ties after months of strained relations.

Thai investment in Cambodia has fallen dramatically over the past seven years.

The relationship between the two soured notably in 2003 when the Thai embassy and some Thai businesses were heavily damaged by rioters in Phnom Penh. They had been reacting to fabricated reports quoting a Thai actress as saying that Angkor Wat belonged to Thailand.

Relations subsequently improved but became strained again last year as the two countries feuded over the Preah Vihear temple, leading to their ambassadors being recalled. Both envoys last month returned to their jobs, and Premier Abhisit Vejjajiva and Prime Minister Hun Sen are expected to hold talks later this month.

Thailand's investments based on approvals by the Cambodia Investment Board totalled only five projects worth US$15.5 million last year. The country ranked sixth in project numbers and third in project value, behind China ( $42.3 million) and Vietnam ($24.7 million).

Over the past 16 years, Thai investments in Cambodia totalled 81 projects worth $362.35 million. Most were in hotels, agro-industry, wood processing, food processing, telecoms, medical services, electricity, mining, garments and shoes.

Deputy Commerce Minister Alongkorn Ponlaboot said Thailand had potential to resume its leadership in foreign investment in Cambodia, if it can capitalise on the potential of National Road No. 5 as the land transport gateway to Vietnam and China.

The 407-kilometre highway connects Phnom Penh with Aranyaprathet in the Thai border province of Sa Kaeo. From Phnom Penh the road links to the Moc Bai-Bavet border crossing with Vietnam.

Mr Alongkorn and a group of Thai businesspeople recently travelled the road through Cambodia to Vietnam to explore the potential.

He said the Thai government planned to set up a special economic zone in Ban Pa Rai in Aranyaprathet to promote ties with Cambodia. It would offer comprehensive import-export services, distribution centres, customer services and an industrial estate covering about 1,000 rai.

The zone would be linked with Cambodia's Poipet O'Neang Special Economic Zone which occupies 2,000 rai opposite Ban Pa Rai.

Mr Alongkorn said the zone would be proposed to economic ministers and the cabinet in the new two weeks.

The special economic zone would be the second with a neighbouring country after the one that straddles Mae Sot district in Tak and Myawaddy in Burma. A special economic zone gives entrepreneurs more investment flexibility through such things as relaxed labour rules.

Thailand is currently the fifth largest trading partner of Cambodia behind the United States, Vietnam, China and Hong Kong. Bilateral trade between the two countries totalled $492.8 million last year, $477.2 million of which came from Thai exports.

Abhisit, Hun Sen on course for early talks over Preah Vihear

KI-Media Note: Hun Xen would be foolish to accept the following condition set by Thailand: "That both sides accept the fundamental fact that there is no defined border and that both sides commit to defining that border". Please voice out you opinion.

4/09/2010
Pichai Chuensuksawad
Bangkok Post

The first top-level meeting on the Preah Vihear dispute between Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Cambodian counterpart Hun Sen is likely to take place earlier than expected in New York rather than in Brussels, diplomatic sources told the Bangkok Post yesterday.

Initially, Hun Sen had not planned to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York this year.

He is now likely to be in New York after US President Barack Obama officially invited all Asean leaders to the second US-Asean summit set for Sept 24.

The summit is expected to last two hours - half an hour longer than the first US-Asean summit held in Singapore in November last year.

The possibility of a high-level meeting between the leaders in Brussels was first revealed by Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan after his visit to Phnom Penh where he met Hun Sen and Foreign Minister Hor Nam Hong on Aug 16.

Mr Surin spent more than two hours with Hun Sen but did not reveal details of their meeting.

Two days later the leaders confirmed their willingness to meet in Brussels.

When Phnom Penh announced on Aug 23 that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra had resigned as Cambodia's economic adviser, Thailand decided to send its ambassador Prasas Prasasvinitchai back to Phnom Penh.

Phnom Penh then announced its ambassador, You Aye, would return to Bangkok.

The thawing of relations is the result of discussions at various levels resulting in Hun Sen agreeing not only to meet Mr Abhisit but also agreeing to discuss a resolution to Preah Vihear based on a framework proposed by intermediaries.

Hun Sen revealed to diplomatic sources in Phnom Penh that he had been silent on the Preah Vihear dispute for quite a while but was prompted to speak out only after Mr Abhisit appeared on a national televised programme with members of the Thai Patriots network led by the People's Alliance for Democracy in August.

The sources quoted Hun Sen as saying he was confused because on the one hand the Thai prime minister said he would explain the Thai position to the international community but wanted the dispute to be resolved bilaterally.

Hun Sen reacted strongly also because Mr Abhisit said that Thailand would apply diplomatic and military measures in dealing with Cambodia's encroaching upon the disputed area surrounding the Preah Vihear temple.

Hun Sen is very familiar with all the players on the Thai side but he questions why the memorandums of understanding (MoU) which have been agreed upon by both countries on the issue have not yet moved forward.

The Cambodian leader said there was a perception that Thailand is not really committed or that it cannot deliver, and that a resolution was also difficult because Preah Vihear had become a "hostage of Thai politics".

Hun Sen understood, however, that his Thai counterpart was under considerable pressure and had to balance the various forces in Thailand over the temple dispute, the sources said.

Despite these doubts and questions, Thailand and Cambodia continue to keep the channel of communications open through their respective defence ministers.

This is to ensure that the border dispute does not get out of hand, sources in both capitals said.

In an attempt to help defuse the situation, the point was made to Hun Sen that the hundreds of kilometres of border between the two countries had not been surveyed, nor was there clear demarcation. Each attempt to resolve the boundary issue failed because of a lack of trust.

The sources said it was proposed to Hun Sen that one way forward was for both leaders to meet when it was convenient.

It was suggested there were several opportunities to meet, namely at the Asia-Europe summit in Brussels in early October, the Asean summit in Hanoi at the end of October, the Asian Games in Gaungzhao in November, or at the Ayeyarwady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (Acmecs) in Cambodia in November.

There were a number of points proposed which would form the framework of discussions between both leaders when they meet, including:

• That both sides accept the fundamental fact that there is no defined border and that both sides commit to defining that border.
• That both sides exercise maximum restraint with regards to troop movements and avoid any movement that could lead to miscalculations or act in any way that would increase pressure at the border.
• To allow technical teams to find a process of moving forward - this should occur "when it is convenient" along the lines agreed in the MoU. By agreeing to this, a cooling down process would commence.
• Both sides should agree to an exchange of ambassadors.
• Given the political nature of the dispute which has heightened emotions on both sides, people-to-people exchanges should be encouraged.

Hun Sen had no difficulty in accepting the points and was willing to meet Mr Abhisit to discuss them, the sources in Phnom Penh said.

On the thorny issue of former prime minister Thaksin's role as economic adviser - an issue which prompted Thailand to withdraw its ambassador - Hun Sen said "he could not abandon Thaksin".

However it was made clear to Hun Sen that Thaksin's appointment via royal proclamation was very difficult for the Thai side to accept, especially when the former prime minister is viewed as a convicted fugitive.

Since his appointment as economic adviser, Thaksin has not visited Cambodia nor been active in his advisory role.

The sources in Phnom Penh quoted Hun Sen as saying that during the political turmoil in Thailand in May, Thaksin had asked to visit Cambodia but Hun Sen asked him not to come.

It is also widely known in Phnom Penh that Cambodian instructions were issued prohibiting troop movements along the border during the May riots as it could be misconstrued, and that Cambodians in Thailand should not be involved in the red shirt protests.

Apart from agreeing to meet Mr Abhisit and to discuss the four points, Hun Sen said he had nothing personal against the Thai leader and asked intermediaries to convey his "best wishes".

Hun Sen's agreement to meet Mr Abhisit and the possible points of discussion were conveyed to the Thai prime minister indirectly through intermediaries, the sources in both capitals said.

[Thai] PM, Hun Sen set to meet [-Hun Xen's olive branch to Abishit?]

"He [Hun Sen] has voiced confidence that Mr Abhisit will stay in the post for a long time and that the prime minister has grown stronger and proved his leadership skills," Ong-art Klampaibul

Ong-art's visit to Phnom Penh helps boost ties

4/09/2010
Pradit Ruangdit
Bangkok Post

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Cambodian counterpart Hun Sen look set to hold talks later this month to build on the improving ties between the two countries.

Given the potential meeting of the two leaders, the Defence Ministry is considering postponing the Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) meeting scheduled for Sept 8-10 in Bangkok, a ministry source said.

Speaking after his return from Cambodia yesterday, Prime Minister's Office Minister Ong-art Klampaibul said the Cambodian prime minister appears keen on the prospect of catching up with Mr Abhisit when they meet at the United Nations General Assembly.

"He said we [Thailand and Cambodia] don't have to wait until the Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem) in October because we will meet in New York on Sept 24," said Mr Ong-art who visited Cambodia on Thursday shortly after the normalisation of diplomatic ties.

Mr Ong-art was only scheduled to meet with the Cambodian information minister during the visit. But he also had a one-hour meeting with Hun Sen.

Ties with Phnom Penh deteriorated over border conflicts and the appointment of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra as economic adviser. They went downhill after Cambodia proposed a management plan for the Preah Vihear temple to the World Heritage Committee that Bangkok opposed.

Bangkok and Phnom Penh recently reinstated their ambassadors after Thaksin resigned from his advisory post.

Mr Ong-art said the Cambodian leader is ready to hold talks on "any issue" with Mr Abhisit. "He has assured that a broker is unnecessary when holding a dialogue with Thailand. Any forum can do."

According to the minister, the Cambodian leader said Thailand and Cambodia were like "tongue and teeth" - a reference to occasional disagreements which should be dealt with amicably.

Mr Ong-art said bilateral relations between the two nations are picking up, citing the bringing forward from Oct 18 to Sept 10 of the Thai ambassador to submit his appointment to Cambodia's king for endorsement.

Both countries have also agreed to carry out journalistic and cultural exchange programmes, he said.

A hotline will be set up as a communications channel between him and the Cambodian information minister in case there are any urgent issues that need to be resolved, he said.

Mr Ong-art added that Hun Sen was full of praise for Mr Abhisit.

The Cambodian prime minister said that Mr Abhisit should not be discouraged by criticism about his early rise to become prime minister.

"He has voiced confidence that Mr Abhisit will stay in the post for a long time and that the prime minister has grown stronger and proved his leadership skills," Mr Ong-art said.

Mr Ong-art said he also explained the legal requirements about the Thai side in working on the JBC and Hun Sen seemed to understand these.

Mr Abhisit, meanwhile, said yesterday that he expects to meet and hold talks with Hun Sen when they meet at international forums later this year.

Mr Abhisit played down Hun Sen's softened stance towards bilateral ties.

Earlier, Hun Sen had accused Thailand of threatening to renege on its acceptance of Cambodia's rights to the Preah Vihear temple and asked the UN to intervene.

Mr Abhisit said that as neighbours both countries are aware that existing disagreements or conflicts must be resolved through talks but certain issues need to proceed at the right time.

Mr Abhisit said he hoped Mr Ong-art's visit to Cambodia would strengthen communications and that the ministers concerned seemed to be working on some mechanisms to reduce tensions caused by misunderstandings.

In a related development, provincial authorities and the private sector in Trat are holding a three-day meeting with their Cambodian counterparts from four provinces to discuss cooperation.

Trat governor Kaenpet Chuangrangsi said the meeting, which will take place on Koh Chang, will discuss matters ranging from border security to health care and trade and tourism. He said that a draft memorandum on cooperation guidelines is expected to be signed at the end of the meeting today.

Hun Sen realises the folly of supporting Thaksin

4/09/2010
Kamol Hengkietisak
Bangkok Post

The Cambodian government announced on Aug 23 that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra had resigned as a personal adviser to Prime Minister Hun Sen and as economic adviser to the Cambodian government, citing personal difficulty in fulfilling the roles. This paved the way for Bangkok and Phnom Penh to restore normal diplomatic relations, noted Nongnuch Singhadecha writing for Matichon.

Even though some Thai critics remarked that it was a staged act by Thaksin and Hun Sen and that the Thai government should not put much faith in Hun Sen, Nongnuch believed it was in Cambodia's own interests to dismiss Thaksin as an adviser - otherwise Thailand would not resume normal diplomatic ties.

After Thaksin resigned from his positions, the two countries returned their ambassadors to their posts in Phnom Penh and Bangkok respectively. Diplomatic relations had been downgraded to the charge d'affaires level when Thaksin was appointed adviser in November last year.

Nongnuch speculated that Hun Sen finally realised that supporting Thaksin openly and wholeheartedly was not in the best interests of Cambodia. As time passed, Hun Sen realised that holding "junk stock" like Thaksin and hoping for a quick profit would not materialise and that Thaksin was static on a declining trend and could even plunge to a lower level than his IPO price as there was no positive news to support him. In the parlance of stock speculators, Thaksin stock has no future.

The situation after the red shirt unrest in April-May with the total defeat of the red shirts made it quite clear to Hun Sen that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who Hun Sen used to ridicule as unlikely to last long, could now consolidate his position and that it would be sometime before a new general election is held, and it is not even certain that Puea Thai will take power. The economic news in Thailand is also encouraging in that GDP growth for the first and second quarter was at the forefront in Asia, consolidating the position of Mr Abhisit even further.

Hun Sen's open support of Thaksin was the main obstacle to unifying Asean, which aims to become a common market and attract trade and investment to the region. The Asean market boasts more than 500 million people with Indonesia alone having 240 million. The region is a magnet for overseas investors from the West and Asian economic giants China, Japan and South Korea. Those countries do not want to see Asean countries mired in conflicts just because Hun Sen saw personal ties with Thaksin as more important than the interests of Cambodia and Asean.

Objectively speaking, Hun Sen committed a diplomatic misstep in taking on board a fugitive from justice. It soured relations between Thailand and Cambodia. Whatever angle one looks at it from, there was no need for Hun Sen to officially announce the appointment of Thaksin as his personal adviser and an economic adviser to the Cambodian government. If Hun Sen had been wiser, he would not have put all his bets on Thaksin and announced the enmity against Mr Abhisit. He could have quietly appointed Thaksin on an informal basis to help him and the Cambodian government. With no official announcement, Hun Sen could have avoided souring diplomatic relations with Thailand while hedging his bets if Puea Thai came to power.

On the Puea Thai Party front, Thaksin loyalists argue that he was not dismissed from his advisory position but resigned voluntarily to improve relations between the two neighbours. If that were the case, Nongnuch wondered why Thaksin had not thought about this when he accepted Hun Sen's invitation to become an adviser. If he had not really wanted to sour relations between the two countries, he should not have accepted the position in the first place. The fact he accepted meant he cannot deny that he wanted to show the Abhisit administration and its backers that he was still accepted as a respected international figure by Thailand's neighbour to the point where that country did not care much about good relations with Thailand.

Nongnuch said if Thaksin was really behind the violence aimed at toppling the Abhisit administration, as many believe, he should now know that using force and violence to fight the military establishment is futile, seeing the failure in April last year and April-May this year. Violence will not succeed as it is not the democratic way.

If the red shirts continue to agitate and obstruct ruling politicians who are doing their duty in the countryside, it will give even more legitimacy to Mr Abhisit's claim to continue to rule until his term expires late next year without having to be forced to dissolve the House early for a general election, citing that the situation is still not peaceful and that candidates may not be able to campaign freely throughout the country without facing obstruction.

The resounding defeat of Puea Thai in Bangkok's local elections on Sunday, Aug 29, even though the Democrat Party did not sweep all seats, means that Bangkokians do not think too much of the red shirts torching Bangkok in May.

Puea Thai claimed only 42% of eligible voters bothered to come out to vote and thus this election did not reflect the true feeling of Bangkok voters. Nongnuch begged to differ, arguing that with the two main parties fighting tooth and nail to win over Bangkok voters, it would be unthinkable that the true, die-hard red shirt supporters would sit tight and let the Democrat supporters have their day as the memory of the red shirt defeat in May was still fresh in their minds.

Som Niyeay Phorng - Op-Ed by Angkor Borei News

Click on the article in Khmer to zoom in

Hun Sen wary but still ready for Thai talks

(Photo: Reuters)

September 2, 2010
The Nation

Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen said yesterday the recent thaw with Thailand following resumption of diplomatic relations would not help solve the border conflict as long as Thai troops were stationed in the area near the Preah Vihear temple, claimed by both countries.

"I am not satisfied nor am I smiling while you are shaking my hand and at the same time you step on my foot," he was quoted as saying by the Kyodo news agency.

However, Hun Sen expressed his readiness to hold talks with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. The two leaders are expected to meet at several upcoming events, such as the Asia-Europe Meeting to be held in Brussels in early October, the Asean Summit in Vietnam in late October, or the leaders' meeting at the Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS) in Cambodia in November.

The Cambodian leader said outside mediation was not necessary for just bilateral talks covering issues of common interest. However, if no way out was found for the border problem, a third party was a real need. Hun Sen added that Cambodia could not wait for too long, the Xinhua news agency reported.

Hun Sen also urged the Thai Parliament to approve agreements made by the foreign ministers of the two countries in order to help solve the border problem.

He said parliamentary approval for the three agreed minutes would pave the way for the two governments to resume their talks and for the border dispute to be solved. The agreements referred to the setting up of a joint committee to look into the redeployment of the armed forces, real action on troop redeployment at the area near Keo Sikhakiri Svarak temple and Preah Vihear, and the joint de-mining of the areas.

Regarding fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra's resignation as his economic adviser, Hun Sen said his status had nothing to do with the border conflict.

[Thai] Deputy PM: Bilateral Ties to Improve When Both Leaders Meet

31 August 2010
Thai-ASEAN News Network

The deputy PM of national security told the Senate he is confident that bilateral relations between Thailand and Cambodia will improve after the leaders of both nations have had an opportunity to meet in person.

Suthep Thaugsuban, deputy PM of national security, answered a question directed at him by Senator Somchai Sawaengkarn regarding his approach to resolving the soured relations between Thailand and Cambodia.

Suthep said that so far, the Thai government has been very patient in finding ways to be on amicable terms with Cambodia through talks between officials at different levels.

He added that the Thai government has tried to contain the impact of the border tensions and prevent them from spreading and affecting people who live along the border.

Regarding the resignation of Thaksin Shinawatra as economic adviser to the Cambodian government, he said the resignation will ease tensions between Thailand and Cambodia and in the future, international summits will present opportunities for leaders of both nations to discuss the conflict.

Senator Somchai Sawaengkarn proposed that both countries share the benefits of the disputed land and said that determining a border between the two countries must be done without favoring one country over the other.

He also called for both sides to withdraw their troops.

Ties Renewed, But Doubt Remains Over Border Issue

Chun Sakada, VOA Khmer
Phnom Penh, Cambodia Friday, 27 August 2010

“I am not optimistic while [the report] has not been approved in nearly three years.”

With renewed diplomatic ties between Cambodia and Thailand, officials from opposite sides offered different views on whether the ongoing border issue can be resolved.

Cambodian officials say mutual renewal of ambassadors this week are not necessarily a positive step toward solving the issue bilaterally.

A Thai spokesman, however, said renewed ties would mean better communication over the border and could lead toward steps within the Thai government for more Joint Border Committee talks.

“I think with our ambassadors in place, it would facilitate more efficient and closer coordination and communication between both countries,” the spokesman, Thani Thongphakdi, told VOA Khmer Thursday.

Both sides replaced their ambassadors this week following withdrawals in late 2009, when Cambodia made Thailand's fugitive ex-premier, Thaksin Shinawatra, an economic adviser.

Cambodian officials are less optimistic that the ongoing border row, over a disputed piece of land west of Preah Vihear temple, will now be settled.

Thai parliament has yet to approve border measures already discussed between the Joint Border Committee, said Var Kimhong, a senior government adviser and head of Cambodia's border committee.

“I am not optimistic while [the report] has not been approved in nearly three years,” he said.

Officials said border demarcation can only begin after Thai parliament approves three agreements reached between the border committees since 2008.

“Even now that diplomatic relations are normalized, non negation can get started until Thai parliament approves these agreements,” Koy Kuong, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said.

Thai spokesman Thani said he hoped the parliamentary endorsement would come in the near future. In the meantime, he said, discussions are now underway between the two sides for a meeting between prime ministers Hun Sen and Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Surly neighbours should be ready to mend the fence

August 27, 2010
The Nation
EDITORIAL

Thailand and Cambodia can restore ties knowing they are Asean members and can share economic benefits

One would not think that fence mending between Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Cambodian counterpart Hun Sen was possible considering the viciousness behind the Cambodian leader's attack on Abhisit last October.

Nevertheless, here we are at a possible reconciliation, and it should be welcomed. It's kiss and make up time for both sides. One may end up wondering what all the fuss was about in the first place.

Perhaps bygones don't matter anymore, now that the two countries have decided to move on from microphone diplomacy and restore bilateral ties at the highest level. The respective ambassadors have been reinstated. Essentially, this means that diplomacy is back on track.

Another positive development has been the release of three Thai villagers who were detained by Cambodian soldiers when they strayed across the border. They were simply foraging for forest products to make ends meet. Nevertheless, one wonders if the three would be released if the political atmosphere were not on the upswing.

The move towards diplomatic normalisation comes with the announcement that fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra is no longer working as an "economic adviser" to Cambodia. It was generally realised on both sides of the border that the position was a way of antagonising Thailand rather than assisting Cambodia and its economy in any meaningful way.

The ousted Thai leader, wanted on charges of corruption, likes to represent himself as a champion of the poor, and his appointment in Cambodia was supposed to be a testimony to that status. But the nature of his entry into this cross-border quarrel, as well as his departure, suggests that Thaksin was just a political pawn. But still, he was willing to play a part in the hypocrisy as it showed Thailand that he maintains powerful friendships.

The advisory appointment of Thaksin was simply Hun Sen's way of getting back at Abhisit for obstructing Cambodia's bid to put the 12th century Preah Vihear temple on the Unesco's World Heritage list, and holding the Hindu-Khmer ruins hostage to border demarcation. While in opposition, Abhisit had charged that the then government of Samak Sundaravej had violated the Constitution by endorsing Cambodia's bid to propose the temple for World Heritage status. The border map submitted to Unesco by Cambodia could help strengthen Cambodia's claim to disputed, overlapping territories, he argued. Since then, bilateral ties have been frosty to say the least.

Fortunately, it didn't take long for Hun Sen to realise that Thaksin had outlived his usefulness and that the only way forward was to accept the fugitive's resignation and get bilateral ties back on track. Thaksin should now realise that his departure from the Thai-Cambodia equation benefits the two countries.

A number of issues had to be placed on the backburner as the two sides carried on a lengthy spitting contest that essentially served no purpose. But beside the border demarcation, the two countries still have overlapping territorial claims in the Gulf of Thailand that need to be addressed. Potential investment benefits from natural gas and oil deposits await the two countries in the Gulf, but neither side will be able to move on this until the land issue is resolved.

We hope that the economic incentives will be enough to motivate the two sides to get back to the negotiating table. But we shouldn't hold our breath. Although the political situation in Thailand is improving, there exists a group of ultra-nationalists who are prepared to cause more violence if they detect one move from the government they don't like.

Moving bilateral relations forward should now be somewhat easier, at least with Thaksin out of the immediate equation. However, both sides will have to display maturity and courage to ensure that pending issues can be resolved with any degree of normalcy. Importantly, Thailand and Cambodia are both active members of Asean, and this fact should be paramount in their attitudes.

The two leaders are scheduled to meet face to face in early October. Both have learned the hard way that politicising foreign relations for domestic consumption serves no one's interest. Now let's hope they have the courage to do the right thing.

You Ay back in Bangkok

Cambodian Ambassador to Thailand You Ay arrives in Bangkok yesterday to resume her post after her Thai counterpart, Prasas Prasasvinitchai, returned to his post in Phnom Penh on Tuesday. Thailand and Cambodia normalised ties after former premier Thaksin Shinawatra resigned as an adviserto Hun Sen on Monday. (Photo: The Nation)

Thailand, Cambodia Restore Diplomatic Ties

Ron Corben, VOA
Bangkok, Thailand Wednesday, 25 August 2010

"So this is a positive step, I think, by Mr. Thaksin resigning. You can see how quickly the Thai government has sent the ambassador back to Phnom Penh and Cambodia also did the same.”

Thailand and Cambodia have decided to normalize diplomatic relations after nearly a year.

Tensions flared between Thailand and Cambodia when former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is wanted in Bangkok on corruption charges, took a post as an economic advisor to the Phnom Penh government.

But Mr. Thaksin has given up the post and the Thai foreign ministry says ambassadors will return to their posts in the two countries. The foreign ministry also thanked Cambodia for its cooperation in "boosting bilateral relations."

Mr. Thaksin was ousted in a coup in 2006 and has lived in exile since 2008. He has close links with Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen, and has business interests in Cambodia.

The Cambodian Foreign Ministry says Mr. Thaksin resigned his post for personal reasons.

His resignation and renewed diplomatic relations are important steps toward ending tensions said Hang Chhaya, the executive director of the Khmer Institute for Democracy in Phnom Penh.

"So this is a positive step, I think, by Mr. Thaksin resigning. You can see how quickly the Thai government has sent the ambassador back to Phnom Penh and Cambodia also did the same,” he said. “This is good in terms of the two counties can actually work together now that they have diplomatic relations back to normal."

Hang Chhaya said diplomatic efforts, including those by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the United States and China, helped improve relations.

"So ASEAN in a sense act like a caretaker in this region and maybe to help to save face, because imagine if Thailand and Cambodia enter into a war. That would be a disaster for them."

Mr. Thaksin's appointment to the Cambodian post led Thailand to withdraw support for agreements on overlapping maritime claims in the Gulf of Thailand.

The Thaksin dispute aggravated friction over Cambodia's management plan for a 900-year-old Khmer temple on the border. The Preah Vihear temple lies inside the Cambodian border on the top of a cliff. But access to the complex is largely only available from the Thai side.

In 1962, the International Court of Justice ruled the temple is Cambodian territory, but failed to determine ownership of an adjacent piece of land that Thailand controls. Thailand was angered when Phnom Penh independently sought a World Heritage listing for the temple two years ago.

There have been small military clashes around the temple since. Talks about the dispute are expected in October.

Cambodian envoy returns to Thailand

25/08/2010
Bangkok Post

The Cambodian ambassador to Thailand, You Aye, returned to Bangkok on Wednesday, a day after the Thai envoy left for Phnom Penh.

Mrs You Aye arrived at Suvarnabhumi airport in the morning on flight TG 932 from Phnom Penh.

She left the airport without giving any interviews.

Ties between Bangkok and Phnom Penh have suddenly improved after ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra resigned as an economic adviser to Cambodia.

On Tuesday, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen ordered the release of three Thais being detained in Siem Reap after they were arrested for entering Cambodia illegally. The villagers are expected to return to Thailand within days.

Thai-Cambodia ties expected to be improved after Thaksin's resignation

August 25, 2010
Xinhua

Just one day after Cambodian authorities announced the resignation of ex-Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinnawatra as its advisor, Thailand sent its ambassador back to Phnom Penh on Tuesday and three Thais detained by Cambodia have been released.

Tension between the two neighboring countries seems to thaw.

ENVOY RETURNS TO DUTY

On Tuesday evening, Prasas Prasasvinitchai, Thai ambassador to Cambodia returnd to his post after almost 10-month absence since the Cambodian government appointed convicted ex-premier Thaksin as its economic adviser last October.

Thai News Agency (TNA) quoted Prasas as saying that he would coordinate with Cambodian authorities to present his credentials to King Norodom Sihamoni at the Royal Palace.

The process was expected to finish within two weeks and was necessary before he could officially resume his duties, he said.

The ambassador also said he would subsequently pay a courtesy call on the Cambodian Foreign Minister and he believed that bilateral relations will gradually improve.

Meanwhile, the Cambodian ambassador to Thailand You Aye is expected to arrive in Bangkok on Wednesday.

THAI DETAINEES FREED

Another sign that tension has been eased is that three Thais detained by Cambodian authorities for nearly a week were set free on Tuesday.

The Cambodian authorities have released the three and will hand them over to Thai authorities at a border checkpoint in Thai northeastern province of Si Sa Ket, the TNA quoted Somkiart Sangkhaosutthirak, deputy governor of northeastern border province of Surin as saying.

Last Wednesday, Sanong Wongcharoen, Lim Puangpet and Lan Sapsri, villagers in Surin were detained by Cambodian army on charges of illegal entry into the country and possessing firearms. Since then, the three were detained in a prison in Cambodia's Siem Reap province.

Their release was secured after negotiations between the Thai and Cambodian authorities.

Early Tuesday, the Bangkok Post online quoted Chavanond Intarakomalyasut, Secretary to Thai Foreign Minister as saying that Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has ordered Siem Reap governor to release the three men and they are expected to be released in two to three days after documentation is complete.

BETTER TIES EXPECTED

Several Thai officials hoped that relations with Cambodia will be improved after Thaksin resigned as an economic adviser to the Cambodian government.

This would lead to better cooperation between the two countries, and an easing of tension along the border, Chavanond said.

Meanwhile, Suthep Thaugsuban, Deputy Prime Minister for security affairs, said he would like to thank Hun Sen for announcing Thaksin's resignation.

"I thank all sides for trying to improve Thai-Cambodian ties. I believe both countries can now discuss the border situation more smoothly," he said.

Similarly, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya said the tension should be eased and the two countries will be able to hold talks to resolve the border dispute around Preah Vihear temple.

"All issues between Thailand and Cambodia should improve as both countries already cooperate in many areas," he said.

Supreme Commander Songkitti Chakkrabat said the Thai-Cambodian rift should narrow down since Thaksin has resigned.

"Thailand and Cambodia are neighbours and have positive ties," the Commander said.

Cambodia, Thai resume diplomatic ties helpful to relation improvement

August 25 2010
Source: Xinhua

The restoration of the diplomatic relations between Cambodia and Thailand will be sure to help further improve relations between the two countries, a government official said on Tuesday.

Thailand ambassador arrived here on Tuesday evening to resume his work in Cambodia after absence of nearly 10 months.

Koy Kuong, foreign ministry's spokesman confirmed to Xinhua on Tuesday evening that "Cambodian ambassador, Madame You Ay, will return to perform her duty as ambassador tomorrow, now that Thai ambassador has returned to Phnom Penh."

Cambodia, Thailand downgraded their diplomatic relation on Nov. 5 last year after Cambodia appointed Thaksin as advisor to Cambodian government and Prime Minister Hun Sen. Thai recalled ambassador Prasas Prasasvinitchai and Cambodia made the same move on the same day.

But Thaksin made a surprise resignation from the posts on Monday and Cambodian government announced it had accepted his resignation.

Just hours after Cambodia confirmed to Thailand with Thaksin's resignation from the posts, Thai government said it would send back the ambassador to Cambodia the next day, and Cambodia said it will reciprocate its ambassador.

Koy Kuong said that the restoration of the diplomatic relations between the two countries will be sure to help the further improvement of the relations in various fields.

However, he declined to give further details about what's the effect it will be on the solution of border dispute between two countries. "I can't answer the question now, all we can do is to wait and see," he said. "We can not say that with the restoration of a good diplomatic relation, all the problems will be solved such as the border issue."

Cambodia and Thailand has had border dispute since Cambodia's Preah Vihear Temple was registered as World Heritage Site in July 2008.

Since then several rounds of military clashes have occurred between the two countries' armies and caused some deaths and injuries on both sides.

After the ice age, the great thaw [between Cambodia and Thailand]

August 25, 2010
By Tulsathit Taptim
The Nation

Opinion polls have shown that Thais in general are more concerned about the border tension erupting into something worse than about losing territory to the Cambodians

Nobody saw it coming, but the sudden warming in Thai-Cambodian diplomacy bears all the characteristics of the unique bilateral relationship between the two neighbours.

Two weeks after Phnom Penh petitioned the United Nations for help, accusing Thailand of threatening to renege on its acceptance of Cambodia's rights over the Preah Vihear Temple - triggering a heated Thai response - the thin line between war and romance unexpectedly dissolved.

What's happened? Hun Sen has never been known as a man who budges easily. His past attacks on Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva suggested that all the bridges had been burnt. It appeared as though normalisation of relations between Phnom Penh and Bangkok was impossible as long as Abhisit remained in power.

Some say diplomacy is the art of saying "good doggie" until you can find a rock. Certain cynical Thai observers think that a reverse of that might have been what was happening to Cambodia. Thaksin Shinawatra, goes this theory, used to be a rock, but isn't any longer. In other words, Cambodia had bet on him but has since been disillusioned by his failure to make a quick political return here.

Too simple, other analysts say. Whatever happened that prompted Phnom Penh to do a 180 must have happened after the UN protests, they note. No matter how unpredictable the relationship has been, Cambodia would not have gone to the UN if it had planned to send an ambassador back to Bangkok in two weeks' time.

Did China have anything to do with it? This tantalising question stems from two key factors - Beijing's influence over Cambodia and the growing Sino-Thai mutual attraction. According to this second theory, as Phnom Penh ran to the United Nations, Thailand lobbied the neighbour who really matters. The results then were no surprise: Cambodia got the UN's typical and polite "we can help if asked" response, while Thailand had the ears of Big Brother.

It could yet be a combination of Theory One and Theory Two. When Thaksin hugged Hun Sen in November last year, sending bilateral ties into a tailspin, it was not quite clear who was using whom. That, again, represented the unique nature of the two countries' love-hate relationship. The burning of the Thai Embassy in Phnom Penh took place during Thaksin's premiership and there were times when his name was unfavourably associated with anti-Hun Sen manoeuvring in Cambodia. The world-famous embrace, therefore, reflected anything but true friendship.

Whatever his motives were, Hun Sen must have then considered Thaksin an asset, or a good bet at least. But the Cambodian leader must have also been frustrated at how one of his top national priorities - the registration of the Preah Vihear Temple as a World Heritage site - became so intertwined with Thai domestic politics. Few would consider it a coincidence that the temple conflict flared up when the rival camps in Thailand were at each other's throats.

The temple controversy will drag on. But "de-Thaksinisation" may help calm tempers. The issue was already complicated by different maps, disputed claims and re-demarcation that was going nowhere, so getting Thaksin out of the picture can only be a good thing. Both countries have lately admitted, albeit unofficially, that without proper diplomatic communications channels, the border situation has become unnecessarily dangerous.

Abhisit will still have the hardline elements of the yellow shirts to worry about. But in the big picture, improved relations with Cambodia will benefit him politically. Opinion polls have shown that Thais in general are more concerned about the border tension erupting into something worse than about losing territory to the Cambodians. Moreover, normalised ties will make it easier for Abhisit to pre-empt any territorial disadvantage in the first place.

The third theory as to why Thaksin is no longer Cambodia's "economic adviser" came from his aide Noppadol Pattama, who claimed his boss was too busy to fulfil the job. There is one little hole in that claim, though, as Hun Sen made it clear from the start that the appointment was a political, sympathetic gesture for a friend who had been persecuted in his own country. Thaksin was never expected to lead a national drive to push up Cambodia's GDP.

There has also been an argument that Thaksin needed to quit the advisory job because it was impossible for him to do anything without sparking controversy. That claim, however, resonated with the very first warnings from those opposed to the appointment, all of which fell on the deaf ears of both the appointer and appointee.

With Thaksin "let go" or "removed" or "kicked out", depending on various newspaper headlines, the hard part is now seemingly over for Abhisit and Hun Sen. Here comes the harder part, on which Abhisit may have a bit more experience than his Cambodian counterpart: Dealing with his "ghost".