One million Cambodians will be affected by the 2009 economic crisis [-Is Hun Sen willing to admit that Cambodia is not spared by the economic crisis?]

13 Feb 2008
By Ky Soklim
Cambodge Soir Hebdo
Translated from French by Luc Sâr
Click here to read the article in French

The worldwide economic crisis will not spare Cambodia. According to a study recently published, the number of unemployment will increase in 2009 in the garment and construction sectors. On the other hand, the agriculture and the tourist sectors may be able to absorb some these workers.

A report by the Cambodia Institute of Development Study (CIDS), which was made public last week, shows that the Cambodian economic growth should slow down from 6% in 2008 to 5% in 2009. Exports would drop by 2.5%, causing the kingdom to lose a revenue of $75 million. The number of tourists, while still on the increase, should increase at a slower pace, by 5.5% rather than the 15.7% increase seen in 2008.

This new economic data will most likely affect social issues. It will lead to a return of the unemployed to the countryside, or it could push them to migrate to Thailand (to look for work). “When people do not have work, and their knowledge is very low, they will be pushed to commit violence,” a concerned Chea Mony, President of the Free Trade Union of Workers in the Kingdom of Cambodia (FTUWKC), said. He also accused the government of being indifferent to the plea of unemployed workers.

Speculators the big losers as property market stalls

A house up for sale in Phnom Penh. Demand has fallen off as property prices decline across all segments. (Photo by: TRACEY SHELTON)

Thursday, 18 December 2008
Written by SOEUN SAY AND GEORGE MCLEOD
The Phnom Penh Post

While some predict a turnaround in as few as two years, the fortunes of thousands are being wiped out as real estate values fall in the short term

SIX months ago, 38-year-old Hem Davuth was living large and earning tens of thousands of dollars buying and selling real estate in Cambodia's roaring property market.

Now, he says, most his profits have evaporated along with the values of his real estate holdings.
"I cannot earn money like I did in 2005 and 2007. At that time, I made at least US$4,000 per month. Now I don't earn anything," he said.

Hem Davuth's story shows how quickly fortunes have changed in Cambodia, as high-flying speculators are humbled by a hot property market gone sour.

Modern Cambodia's first-ever property boom lasted from about 2006 to mid-2008, and translated into new-found wealth for an emerging middle class, as well as thousands of construction jobs.

But the boom has come to a grinding halt as foreign investment dries up, bringing property values down an estimated 25 percent over six months, say industry players.

Now, experts estimate that thousands of speculators have been wiped out by the crunch, along with an unknown number of property-related jobs.

"the prices ... have been overinflated. Everyone jumped on the greed bandwagon."

"About 5,000 land speculators have lost their fortunes after the property market downturn brought on by the global economic crisis," said Meas Tola, managing director of Angkor Real Estate of Cambodia.

He says his company's future is in question as commissions fall to almost nothing.

Sung Bonna, president and CEO of Bonna Realty and president of the National Valuers Association of Cambodia, said that the property recession will have broader implications for the economy.

"We are very worried about all of them [speculators] losing their income. Many businesses face crisis," he added.

The crisis will cut disposable income for many Cambodians, hitting everything from luxury car purchases to high-end restaurant sales, he said.

Kang Chandararot, president of the Cambodia Institute for Development Study, blamed the global economy rather than local conditions for the sliding market.

"Some who earned a lot of income from the real estate boom are going bust," he said.

Local officials are optimistic that a turnaround could come as soon as next year, but one regional property expert said the market might take years to recover.

"The prices in Phnom Penh have been overinflated. Everyone has jumped on the greed bandwagon. ... Now we are seeing a lot of major construction projects being put on hold or cancelled," said Naim Khan-Turk, the director of research and consultancy with CB Richard Ellis in Ho Chi Minh City.

"Cambodia is going to have a reality check. Speculators have been borrowing to buy condos that aren't built and they are not going to be able to pay the banks; then the suppliers won't get paid and everyone is going to lose," he said.

"You aren't going to see as many local job losses as in places like Vietnam because most of the companies and suppliers are coming from abroad. That will insulate Cambodia to some extent," he said.