UN food agency lowers 2012 global rice forecast

An Indian farmer works in a paddy field near Saputara, India, on August 3. (AFP/File - Sam Panthaky)

07 August 2012
AFP

ROME: The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) revised down its global rice forecast for 2012 on Monday due to low monsoon rainfall in India, but said world output should still be greater than in 2011.

The 2012 forecast has been revised down by 7.8 million tonnes "due to a 22-per cent lower-than-average monsoon rainfall in India through mid-July, which is likely to reduce output in the country this season," the Rome-based FAO said.

Production forecasts have also been reduced for Cambodia, Taiwan, North and South Korea, and Nepal, according to the July 2012 issue of the Rice Market Monitor, which was published by the food agency on Monday.

Asia's wet and wild summer explained

Thai mahouts ride their elephants through the flooded Ayutthaya streets on October 10, 2011.

Wed October 12, 2011
By David Challenger, CNN

(CNN) -- Is this just a normal year, or is the southwest monsoon acting more aggressively than normal?

The 2011 tropical cyclone season in the west Pacific has been about average, not significantly above or below usual events. We did have a few consecutive storms that made landfall in the Philippines and other parts of South East Asia in late September and early October, such as Haitang, Nesat, and Nalgae -- but that had more to do with a steering pattern caused by high pressure over the Pacific, not the monsoon. The remnants of these storms did make their way farther into South East Asia, which likely enhanced the monsoon trough, thus leading to higher than average rainfall in countries such as Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. Rainfall in most of Thailand is running 15% to 25% above average for the year (with a vast majority of that rain coming in the monsoon months of May to October).

What exactly is the southwest monsoon? When does it start, end, and how is it generated?

The southwest monsoon occurs during the northern hemisphere summer, and is caused by the land masses of the Indian subcontinent and South East Asia heating up faster than the Indian Ocean. This creates an influx of cooler, moisture-laden air from the ocean over the land. The southwest monsoon generally begins in mid-May and ends in late October/early November, though start and end times vary based on location. India, for example, has a southwest monsoon season that begins June 1 and ends September 30.

A Millennium of Monsoon Failures, Droughts and Famines

By Ananda Gunatilaka
The Island Online (Sri Lanka)

The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) has made possible several complex civilizations to flourish over time. The monsoon domain of Asia extending from Oman to Australia affects almost 60 per cent of humanity today. Historical records have mentioned monsoon failures, droughts, famines and extreme flooding events in the past. Scientifically, the two most robust, continuous, terrestrial proxy rainfall archives are preserved in limestone cave deposits (stalagmite columns) and tree-ring growths (both of which record wet and dry phases or pluvials and droughts). Both archives require precise and very high accuracy geological dating techniques in conjunction with oxygen isotope analysis (the proxy for rainfall). During the past five years, the two archival techniques have been perfected to a degree that a yearly resolution of data is now possible with even a cross-check of dates.

Three cave proxy rainfall records from mainland Oman (Hoti), India (Danduk) and from China (the Wanxiang) have shown the past history of spatio-temporal variability of the monsoon. The Danduk record picked up periods of annually resolved, multi-decadal and centennial length episodes of reduced rainfall and drought during the past millennium, which coincided with several of India’s most devastating historical famines (e.g 879; 940-950; 1148-1159; 1344-1346 CE). The best known are two severe famines between 1350-1420, including the famous Durga Devi (1396-1409) that killed off millions of people in India. Comparing the cave proxy record with historical records, Chinese geologists constructed a record of Dynastic failures due to weakened monsoons, droughts, crop failures, famines and peasant revolts (e.g. the Tang- 850-940 CE; the late Yuan- 1350-1380 CE and Ming- 1580-1641 CE).

Decades that experienced the wettest and strongest monsoons of the past 1000 years coincided with the Northern Song Dynasty’s golden age of rich harvests, population recovery and social stability (960 – 1020 CE). This was clearly depicted in the paintings of that time. Interestingly, the demise of the Tang Dynasty and Maya Classic Periods were coeval (early 10th century) – both now related to extended drought phases, though far apart geographically. It is the amount of rainfall and its inter-regional pattern of variability, especially drought that is of importance to human populations.

Last month, the Tree-Ring Laboratory of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, USA (TRL-LDEO) released the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), which also provides an absolutely dated, annually resolved reconstruction of Asian monsoon spatio-temporal variability over the past 1000 years. MADA used tree-ring data from more than 300 sites of the forested regions of monsoon Asia to reconstruct an Index of relative drought and wetness for the region. The major finding of MADA is that historically recorded monsoon failures/excesses in the past 150 years have been exceeded in intensity and duration many times during the past millennium. The Atlas picked the Ming Dynasty Drought of 1638-1641- the worst in 500 years in northern China and its recorded final collapse in 1644; the Strange Parallels Drought (SPD 1756-1768), the East India Drought (EID 1790-1796) and the late Victorian Great Drought (VGD 1876-1878).

The EID that lasted six years coincided with one of the most severe El-Nino events of the late 18th century, which was felt worldwide and resulted in extensive civil unrest and socio-economic disaster. Its effect on India was devastating with several famines. The MADA record highlights its occurrence in the southernmost tip of India and extending to Sri Lanka, but there is no mention of it in the Sri Lankan records (or is there?). The drought is consistent with historical data for the region. The VGD also occurred during one of the most severe El-Nino events of the past 150 years. This drought was felt in much of India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, parts of Indonesia, Thailand, Borneo and New Guinea according to MADA and is vaguely referred to in our recent historical records. Over 30 million people died across monsoon Asia from the famine (see Davis, M. 2001 –Late Victorian Holocausts, El-Nino famines and the making of the Third World. Versa, London). In the north-central region of Sri Lanka, Mannar and Mullaitivu, apparently there were no rice harvests for nine years and the coffee blight in Uva in the 1870s-1880s may have been due to this drought.

Thailand, Cambodia and Sri Lanka connections

The annually resolved MADA dendro-hydroclimatic record shows that there were persistent weak monsoons and extended decadal droughts in tropical South and Southeast Asia over the past 500-700 years. In the mid-late 14th and early 15th centuries, especially the long period from 1351-1368 CE that was coeval with severe decade long droughts alternating with strong monsoons and floods instigated the collapse of the Khmer civilization in Angkor (Cambodia). The droughts devastated the complicated water supply, management and distribution networks and agricultural base of Angkor, the largest medieval city of the time with upwards of 500,000 people, while flood episodes in turn destroyed the water control infrastructure. Droughts and floods at interdecadal scales are characteristic of the Asian monsoon.

From Sri Lanka’s point of view, it is imperative to mention two references to famines in the late 14th and early 15th century (Gampola Period?) from palm-leaf scrolls in Thailand, where it is mentioned that a contingent of priests from Chiang Mai, Thailand who came here in the early 1400s on a long pilgrimage were forced to return due to a severe drought/famine in Sri Lanka (but where?). This event, as far as is known went unrecorded (?) in our chronicles. The very disappointed priests lamented that they had to turn back as there was "mai mee khao gin" – there


A Millennium of Monsoon Failures was no rice to eat! The references to Sri Lanka are in Thai and from Phitsanulok in Thailand (Wyatt and Wichienkeeo, 1998- The Chiang Mai Chronicles and R.P. Thera, 1967- Jinakalamali Prakor). These droughts were recorded in the state chronicles of the Chao Praya Basin, which mention that the droughts extended west to India and Sri Lanka (see Buckley, B.M. et. al, 2010, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sc., Vol. 107(15): 6748-6752; Cook, E. et. al., 2010., Science, Vol. 328: 486-489).

The year 1403 is recorded by TRL as the most severe in the dendro-record (visit of monks?). Also, six of the twenty wettest years alternated with drought years during the latest 14th and early 15th centuries when the hydraulic infrastructure at Angkor was damaged by flood episodes, just after agricultural productivity was devastated by the preceding decadal droughts. The geological record of the floods is still preserved in the abandoned canal networks of Angkor. Despite over a century of research at Angkor, the ultimate causes of its collapse remained uncertain. The dearth of textual records after the 13th century hindered historical research. This has now been resolved by the detailed hydro-climatic record compiled from tree-ring data.

It was not that repeated droughts and floods were the ultimate cause of civilizational demise. The empire was already under severe pressure from wars, population expansions and social and political upheavals and perhaps even a shift from the Hindu faith, which bestowed unquestioned "godly" powers on the uncompromising rulers (Devaraja), to acceptance of Buddhism due to its more tolerant and democratic outlook that gradually diminished the authority of the weakened rulers. It went into ruin after about five centuries. The hydraulic city had the seeds of its own destruction with a constant battle with droughts and floods. It was a society totally dependent on the annual monsoonal flooding of its lowlands, which supported an extensive rice based agriculture-irrigation infrastructure. It just could not cope with the pressures on its infrastructure and the bureaucracy failed. Decadal droughts alternating with severe floods just pushed it over the edge and never recovered.

Despite the vicissitudes, quite amazingly, the Rajarata hydraulic civilization survived for over a thousand years – far more resilient than any known. It was even resuscitated after more than 600 years of abandonment and its basic infrastructure still functions today. Sri Lanka too had droughts and floods as has been recorded in the chronicles. However, the textual content and detail is very poor. For over 600 years (from 619-628 CE to 1237-1270 CE) there are no references to famines (droughts) when most of monsoon Asia experienced floods/droughts. There is no evidence whatsoever that Rajarata demise had climatic connotations before collapse. However, like in Angkor, it could have been pushed over the edge when the regimes were already weakened in succession by various other pressures and moved out to the southwest for a variety of reasons.

The Danduk cave record shows at least fifteen regional droughts between 1000-1500 CE. The two worst decadal droughts were in the late 14th and early 15th centuries that were also picked up by the dendro-records in the Columbia study quite independently. The references in the Thai records to a major drought in Sri Lanka in the early 1400s were mentioned earlier (same time as the Durgadevi drought in India and decadal droughts in Angkor?). A drought of similar magnitude and extent today with billions more people are unimaginable!

The palaeoclimate archives of monsoon Asia is a very active field of research today. The big gap is between Sri Lanka and Thailand (mostly ocean). However, the continental archives are being added to and refined. The LDEO-dendrochronology survey here was interrupted twice by the civil conflict and the 2004 tsunami event and good analytical material was not found. If the survey restarts and obtains good tree-ring dates, then new interpretations to our climate and social history are possible just as in the cases above.

Early chroniclers recorded only historical events that mattered in state affairs. Droughts and floods were not. It was more important to record alms-giving to priests and mass reciting of pirith to pray for rains. Unlike in India or China, the detail and textual content is lacking when describing famines. This author believes that droughts, famines and floods were as frequent in ancient Sri Lanka as in the rest of Asia and that the chroniclers were indifferent to natural disasters and did not bother to record them. They were only periodically recurring extreme events (as in Angkor) and in the natural order of things. Else, how come major droughts were "missed" here, but were recorded in Thailand and elsewhere? With smaller populations in Sri Lanka, the effects of a disaster may not have been very dramatic unlike in India or China where millions perished at a time. Perhaps our historians will enlighten us on these aspects!

* The author is a retired Professor of Geology

Asian drought damage reconstructed

Tree ring scientists Edward Cook (left) and Paul Krusic trekked for nearly two weeks to reach this 1,000-year-old hemlock in the Himalayas of Nepal during their 15-year research. (Brendan Buckley/Columbia University)

Friday, April 23, 2010
CBC News

Scientists at Columbia University's the Earth Institute and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory have put together a 700-year record reconstructing the destruction caused by droughts that happened when the Asian monsoon resulted in less than normal rainfall.

The study, Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought during the Last Millennium, and the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas published this week in the journal Science look at the seasonal weather system since 1300, its effects on the continent and how the monsoon's future might impact climate change.

While the monsoon feeds nearly half of the world's population when the rain does fall, when the monsoon fails to provide the usual amount of water and there is a drought, death and destruction are rampant, the study found.

Columbia scientists measured tree data from mature tree rings in 300 locations across the Asian continent, Siberia and northern Australia to come up with the findings.

For most tree species, rainfall determines the width of the species, resulting in annual growth rings, scientists said.

By studying the rings, scientists were able to determine that at least four major droughts led to the devastation in the continent and surrounding areas.

Drought led to fall of China's Ming dynasty

For example, a drought in northeastern China led to the 1644 fall of country's Ming dynasty.

Another drought occurred from 1756-1768, which coincided with the collapse of kingdoms in present-day Burma, Vietnam and Thailand.

The study also looked at the 1876-78 drought known as the "Great Drought," which resulted in widespread famine and the death of a record 30 million people in India, China and present-day Indonesia.

"Global climate models fail to accurately simulate the Asian monsoon, and these limitations have hampered our ability to plan for future, potentially rapid and heretofore unexpected shifts in a warming world," said Edward Cook, the head of Lamont's Tree Ring Lab who ran the study, said in a statement.

"Reliable instrumental data goes back only until 1950. This reconstruction gives climate modellers an enormous dataset that may produce some deep insights into the causes of Asian monsoon variability."

The study follows a similar report in March by the Lamont tree-ring team suggesting that dramatic differences in the monsoon may have influenced the collapse of the ancient Khmer civilization at Angkor — now known as Cambodia — nearly 600 years ago.

That paper, which appeared in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in the U.S., showed evidence of a mega-drought in the wider region around Angkor from the 1340s to the 1360s, followed by a more severe but shorter drought from the 1400s to the 1420s.

The droughts were combined with severe flooding, resulting in the kingdom's eventual collapse, researchers of that study found.

The research for the latest study was funded by the U.S National Science Foundation.

New low pressure system could affect Cambodia

Monday, June 25, 2007
Everyday.com.kh
Translated from Khmer by Socheata

The effect of low pressure system which brings along heavy rains in the past few days has weakened, but another low pressure system is building up south of Vietnam and it can turns into a violent storm that could affect Cambodia. Long Saravuth, director of the department of meteorology of the Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, told the Rasmei Kampuchea newspaper that the low pressure front is weakening somewhat, however, dark clouds over Cambodia are still persistent, and that rains still continue to fall. He added that even though the current low pressure system is weakening, another one is brewing south of Vietnam, and should this low pressure turns into a storm, it could affect Cambodia. Long Saravuth said that the weather change is being closely monitored and that if there is any change, he will provide additional information as they become available.