Showing posts with label Vajiralongkorn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vajiralongkorn. Show all posts

Friday, June 24, 2011

WikiLeaks cables reveal scandal and disease in Thai royal family

June 24, 2011
The Times

THE full extent of the crisis in Thailand's royal family has been revealed in leaked US embassy cables, which report that the revered king is suffering from Parkinson's disease and depression, and that his heir, the crown prince, may be HIV-positive.

According to the secret documents -- written over six years by US diplomats, including ambassadors to Bangkok -- Thailand will face a "moment of truth" after the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, whose son, Maha Vajiralongkorn, is regarded as his most likely successor. "It is hard to underestimate the political impact of the uncertainty surrounding the inevitable succession crisis which will be touched off once King Bhumibol passes," reads one cable from 2009, by James Entwistle, the US charge d'affaires.

Others discuss the possibility that the death of the 83-year-old king will be followed by a military coup or a succession crisis in which the prince's claim to the throne is challenged by the queen or his older sister, Princess Sirindhorn.

Monday, November 09, 2009

Thai royalists target stock-market analysts over rumors of king's health

In the past week, Thai authorities have arrested three people on charges of disseminating false data. The arrests have sparked complaints of a witch hunt.

November 8, 2009
By Simon Montlake
Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor


Bangkok, Thalland - When Thailand's stock market swooned last month, analysts put the blame on widespread rumors over the deteriorating health of the country's revered monarch, who had been hospitalized with the flu. The next day, Oct. 15, brought more rumors and an even sharper sell-off, capping a two-day 7 percent drop in the benchmark stock index.

Now Thai authorities are targeting citizens they allege spread rumors about the king's health in order to profit from the selloff.

Over the past week, Thai authorities have arrested three people on charges of disseminating false data. Police say that further arrests may follow and government officials warn that "national security" is at stake in the case.

The arrests have sparked complaints of a witch-hunt by arch-royalists using the sensitive issue of the monarchy to suppress free speech. Two of the suspects, who are former stock-market analysts, have been charged under a controversial and wide-ranging computer crimes law.

The case has highlighted deep-seated fears among Thais over the eventual passing of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world's longest-reigning monarch, who turns 82 in December. He is still in the hospital after being admitted on Sept. 19.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva told Reuters on Saturday that the king had recovered from his illness and would soon be discharged from hospital, in line with the advice of doctors.

In a bid to calm the nation's nerves, King Bhumibol has made several public appearances at the hospital, including one after the stock market selloff. On Nov. 2, he was shown on TV taking part in a Thai holiday ritual of setting a candlelit float on water.

Monarchy and politics intertwined

As a constitutional monarch, Bhumibol is said to be above politics. But the symbolic power and status of the monarchy has long been a crucial element in a political system that runs on personal networks and patronage.

The monarchy is deeply revered in Thailand and though it has limited powers, it has served as the crucial guarantor of national unity. King Bhumibol's positions on Thailand's political upheaval over the years (the country has had ten coups since 1971) have often proved decisive, ensuring generally peaceful transfers of power even when carried out by extra-constitutional means.

Many Thais fear that Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, the king's designated successor, lacks his father's stature and could usher in a period of protracted political instability.

For Thais, the monarchy has been an axis around which a half-century of socioeconomic transformation has turned, says Michael Montesano, a Thai scholar in Singapore.

"Soon … they are going to need to work harder to resolve social, economic, and political problems. And the possibility of failure leaves many (Thais) deeply pessimistic," he says.

The debate over succession is largely conducted in private for fear of breaking strict lese-majeste laws, the use of which has spiked in recent years. The computer-crimes law has been used to prosecute internet users over royal slurs, including an engineer sentenced in April to 10 years in prison for posting anti-monarchy videos on YouTube.

Stock market sensitive to rumors about monarch

In this climate, rumors like those that roiled the stock market spread fast, says Chiranuch Premchaiporn, who runs Prachatai, a left-leaning news website.

"In a society with a lack of democracy and platforms for free expression and a right to access information, this is the way that people react," she says.

Thiranant Wipuchanin, one of the suspects arrested last week, had posted a translation of a Bloomberg News report on October 14 about the stock markets decline on concerns about the king's health.

The translation went up after the market had already closed so could not have effected stock prices, says Ms. Chiranuch.

The chairman of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) said Ms. Thiranant, a former securities company director, hadn't been trading, according to the Bangkok Post.

The other suspect detained on the same day reportedly posted a similar item and commentary on "Same Sky Books," another left-leaning website. The SET said it was reviewing his investment accounts.

Observers have questioned why the police have zeroed in on the two websites, both of which have already been investigated over alleged online royal slurs and have been accused by government officials of subversion.

"They're going willy-nilly at it, without seeming to have much of a case," says a Western diplomat.

As webmaster of Prachatai, Chiranuch was charged earlier this year under the computer-crimes act for failing to delete postings. She denies the charges.

Thailand's stock-market regulator is separately investigating transactions placed via two European brokerages in Hong Kong. In Thailand, as in many jurisdictions, it's illegal to knowingly spread rumors to make a profit in the stock market.

Former prime minister's allies turn up heat

Government officials have said that the rumors over the king's health may have been politically motivated. This is seen as a dig at former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in 2006 by the military and is living in exile in Dubai.

In recent weeks his allies have turned up the heat on Mr. Abhisit's government. Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen has appointed Mr. Thaksin as an economic adviser, infuriating the Thai government, and both countries have withdrawn their ambassadors in a tit-for-tat row.

Securities analysts say the uproar over the royal rumors sends a chilling signal to investors. Some argue that the drop in Thai shares may have been driven by profit-taking in a bull market as much as concerns over the king's health. Indeed, the following week saw other Asian markets give up some of their gains, just as Thailand's had.

"Arresting analysts for doing their jobs is probably not the best way to attract foreign capital," says a securities analyst in Hong Kong.

Ousted Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra calls for ‘shining’ new age after King’s death

November 8, 2009
Richard Lloyd Parry in Dubai
Times Online (UK)


The ousted prime minister of Thailand and opposition leader-in-exile Thaksin Shinawatra has called for reform of the country’s revered monarchy and spoken of his expectations of a “shining” new age after the passing of the ailing King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

Mr Thaksin’s remarks, which touch on some of the most sensitive areas of Thai politics, come as he prepares to return to South East Asia from his exile in the Middle East in a move that has provoked political turmoil in Bangkok. Tomorrow he is due to arrive in Cambodia on a visit that has caused an intense diplomatic row between the two countries.

The appointment of Mr Thaksin as an “adviser” by the Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has angered and humiliated the Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and raised suspicions that Mr Thaksin is plotting a political comeback from a base in Cambodia. The two countries have withdrawn their ambassadors and there are fears of military skirmishes along their disputed border after deadly clashes last year.

Mr Thaksin’s remarks about the Thai monarchy are further evidence that, three years after being forced out as the democratically elected Prime Minister in a military coup, he is still contemplating a political future in Thailand. They also suggest that he is placing his hopes in the man likely to succeed to the country’s throne: the Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn.

“He’s not the king yet. He may not be shining [now],” Mr Thaksin told The Times in an interview from Dubai. “But after he becomes the King I’m confident he can be shining . . . it’s not his time yet. But when the time comes I think he will be able to perform.”

Mr Thaksin was the most popular — and the most divisive — prime minister in his country’s history. Since the coup in 2006 Thailand has been torn by frequently violent demonstrations by his “Red Shirt” supporters and the “Yellow Shirts” who oppose him in the name of King Bhumibol. The King has not explicitly endorsed their movement but many of Mr Thaksin’s supporters believe that the coup could not have happened without his consent.

Mr Thaksin is careful to emphasise his deep loyalty to King Bhumibol, but is deeply critical of the “palace circle”, principally members of the Privy Council, whom he blames for plotting his overthrow with the help of senior generals.

King Bhumibol quickly accepted the coup and has ignored a petition signed by 3.5 million Thais to pardon Mr Thaksin. But the King has been in hospital for seven weeks with apparent pneumonia and Thais are looking ahead with trepidation to life after King Bhumibol.

Prince Vajiralongkorn is the king’s designated heir but he is unpopular with many Thais because of rumours about his private life. Supporters of Mr Thaksin have told The Times that by endorsing the Crown Prince and lending some of his own popularity, he hopes to gain the support of a future monarch who will not interfere with his political ambitions.

“The Crown Prince may not be as popular as His Majesty the King,” Mr Thaksin said. “However, he will have less problem because the palace circle will be smaller . . . He had education abroad and he’s young. I think he understands the modern world.

“When the world is changing every organisation must adapt to the changing environment. When you are born as a baby your heart is very small [but] you cannot keep the baby heart in an adult body . . . Every institution, not just the royal institution, is the same — it must be adapted.”

Mr Thaksin, who was sentenced in absentia to two years in jail for corruption, insisted that he did not intend to settle in Cambodia. But even his temporary presence there, close to Thailand’s northeast where he enjoys his most passionate support, is deeply discomforting for Mr Abhisit — especially after Mr Thaksin’s threat earlier this year to lead a march on Bangkok.

Mr Thaksin’s supporters are still hopeful that King Bhumibol may use his 82nd birthday next month to issue some kind of pardon or amnesty that would allow him to return to Thailand as early as January. “I think His Majesty maybe now feels unwell because he’s been in and out of hospital,” Mr Thaksin said. “I hope after His Majesty gets stronger he will find a way for the country to be back to unity. We cannot let the country go on like this. We will be getting worse and worse and the division will be getting deeper and stronger.”

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Thailand's Political Muddle

Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn

Wednesday, 28 October 2009
By JCK Lee
Asia Sentinel


An ailing king, a feckless heir, political rivalries and conniving unions make the future uncertain

Thais were happy last week to see King Bhumibol Adulyadej out in the open after weeks on his sickbed. But the pictures of the thin, wan figure in a wheelchair were also a reminder of the uncertainties of Thailand without him.

That Thailand's politics are convoluted is hardly news but the twists and turns can still surprise. Take, for instance, another event earlier this month – former prime minister, retired General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, announced he was joining the Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party, the successor to deposed prime minister and now fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra's outlawed Thai Rak Thai party. Other retired military types did the same. Chavalit earned a rebuke from his former colleague, ex-general, ex-prime minister Prem Tinsulanond, who now heads the Privy Council and is widely credited with leading the monarchist drive against Thaksin.

This could be dismissed as irrelevant. Chavalit and fellow retirees are yesterday's men and may be simply trying to find a way back into relevance. Nonetheless, it could also be seen as symptomatic of the fact that despite the apparent deep divisions in the country between the pro-Thaksin Reds and the anti-Thaksin Yellows there is still more than enough scope for opportunistic politics of the sort that brought about the current support for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's Democrat Party from former Thaksin ally and rural power broker Newin Chidchob. Purchasing the support of Newin's northeast allies secured the government but added to general cynicism about politicians, not least those claiming to be cleaning up after the Thaksin era.

The Democrats now face a challenge from a different direction, Yellow Shirt leader Sondhi Limthongkul, the rabble-rouser behind the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) that led the charge against Thaksin, and his New Politics Party formed in July. The new party gives Sondhi a vehicle for his own continuing political involvement off the streets as well as, potentially, on. It may well draw more votes away from the Democrats than from other parties. Sondhi, a media baron, will continue to push his agenda through his newspapers, TV stations and websites.

Pheu Thai's proximity to state enterprise unions is also a worry for a Democrat-led government. The party's first leader was Somak Kasaisuuk who led the fight against privatization of the Electricity Generation Authority of Thailand and is viewed as behind recent labor problems at the State Railway of Thailand, a corrupt and over-manned entity that many in the government and bureaucracy would like to see at least partially privatized.

The monarchists need Sondhi, who proclaims monarchism as his party's ideology, but do not much like him. Abhisit makes a more credible leader than most of the alternatives but the Democrats could be hard-pressed on all sides when they face elections due in late 2011, assuming they take place on schedule.

Put this mess into the context of a possible royal succession and it is no surprise that no sensible person will provide a forecast of the future. A hundred and one different scenarios can be readily sketched.

In the more immediate future, there is the issue of what will happen to Thaksin's assets. Will they be seized or is it possible that there will be a deal to let him keep them so long as he stays out of the country and keeps his mouth shut? But can he just be an offshore businessman? It seems unlikely. But any kind of deal, such as the royal pardon sought by some Thaksin supporters, is also unlikely. Indeed he might fear for his own life if he did return home.

Monarchist fears of him and his supposed republican sentiments may be exaggerated but they are still very strong. Thaksin may be loathed by many, but he is likely to remain second only to the king in popularity. No other politician comes close. Even in absentia he is likely to be a shadow over Thai politics for years, just as Argentina's President Juan Peron was for decades after his overthrow and even after death.

Nor would the departure of Prem, now 89, likely make a difference. His probable successor is the like-minded retired General Surayud Chulanont, who served as prime minister after the military coup that removed Thaksin.

The problems for the monarchists and the army however go beyond the issue of Thaksin. Both of these institutions face storms. First, the death of King Bhumibol will be a huge blow. It is hard to measure how much loyalty is given to the king as an individual who has done much for the nation and how much to the institution of the monarchy as a keystone of Thailand. But it is clear that no one has the standing to fill the king's shoes.

As for the army, defending the monarchy against “republican threats” becomes another role. Its budget has been boosted by the Abhisit government but the raison d'être for a large military budget is none too obvious. Indeed, there are concerns that military desires to justify its existence lie behind contrived border spats with Cambodia and stand in the way of any attempt to resolve the problems of a Muslim insurgency in the south by offering the provinces a degree of autonomy. In the short run the situation in the south may have improved slightly but the problem will linger.

But the army itself is not free of factions, nor are the courtiers who surround the monarchy. The monarchists need a credible monarch. Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, who spends much of his time in Germany, and also may not be fully fit, may lack the popularity accorded to his father and sister Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn. But no one doubts his determination to succeed his father. Nor is there any obvious way, short of death, that he won't achieve that goal, however much some close to the palace might like to see Sirindhorn succeed or become Regent till the Crown Prince's male heir reaches maturity. He was anointed as heir back in 1972 when he was 20.

Will the successor need to do some political deals of his own to protect his back? And if so, which side will Thaksin be on?

Beyond the issue of Thaksin and the politics of patronage are real issues of income distribution and the metropolitan/rural divide. Income distribution may not have been getting any worse in recent years, but the media and the declining supply of cheap rural labor have all helped raise political awareness. Thaksin's populist policies, with handouts to farmers and cheap health care, were nothing very radical. Certainly they did not risk – as the pampered Bangkok middle class claims – massive wealth redistribution or a dangerous government debt burden.

In practice there has been little to choose between macro policies under Thaksin and those of his successors, both military and civilian. Abhisit has even expanded some Thaksin policies to try to win rural support at the next election.

But class tensions have increased and among the Red Shirts there are plenty of aspiring radicals who have been demonstrating against the Bangkok-elite system rather than in favor of Thaksin the man. The media may have become generally compliant, almost unanimously pro-establishment and hostile to Thaksin, but non-governmental organizations still flourish. Some critics still brave the lese majeste laws, and long prison terms or voluntary exile to foster anti-monarchy radicalism that is as yet more incipient than real but could develop into a threat if the prestige of the monarchy plummets and democratic aspirations are thwarted by the military.

On balance a muddle-through scenario looks more likely as ideological positions yield to the power of money and the cynicism of public and politicians alike. But any forecast may be foolish.

Friday, May 08, 2009

Fear and loathing marks Thailand’s malicious monarchy

May 7, 2009
Tribune Magazine (UK)

Thailand’s monarchy is an affront to democracy. James Anstruther reports on how King Bhumibol Adulyadej crushes all dissent

THE King of Thailand, Bhumibol Adulyadej, is apparently thinking about going on a state visit to India. This is unusual, as the 82-year-old monarch largely gave up on such foreign trips in the 1960s. Even before then, he only went to see allies who would be useful in the Cold War fight against the left. Thus, while he visited South Vietnam in 1959, he has never been to North Vietnam or even Thailand’s neighbours, Laos and Cambodia.

He is understood to feel that his dharma-raja, or kingly virtue, is required at home to protect his kingdom from unseemly division and tribulation – such as the political crisis that has been played out on the streets of Bangkok for the past three years. But he could be about to make an exception for India, which he previously shunned because of its left-wing politics and friendship with the Soviet Union.

It is from India that Bhumibol’s kingly virtue derives. He is regarded by his supporters as a personification of the Hindu god Narayana (an avatar of Vishnu). The Hindu tradition is overlaid on an otherwise Buddhist monarchy.

And there is much need of the king’s dharma at home. After all, there have been frequent coups since Bhumibol ascended the throne in 1946 following the death from gunshot wounds of his brother, who had been king for just three months. Bhumibol, who in common with many Thais is very keen on firearms, was in the palace at the time, but has never been publicly blamed for the shooting.

Not all of the coups since his accession have had the king’s approval. However, the most recent one, in September 2006 against Thaksin Shinawatra, the country’s only genuinely elected prime minister, most definitely did.

The king is usually described in Thailand as a constitutional monarch, but there have been 17 written constitutions since the supposed end of absolute monarchy in 1932. These constitutions usually specify a parliamentary system, but some have required a military dictatorship. But they all feature the semi-divine nature of the king and all include provisions for lèse-majesté – a ban on insulting or even criticising the monarch, his immediate family or the institution itself.

In recent years, it has never been the king himself who institutes lèse-majesté proceedings, as this can safely be left to politicians, generals or even members of the public. The accusations come in vast numbers and the police are required to investigate all such tip-offs, however petty they may seem. The minimum sentence is three years in prison. While only those cases featuring unfortunate foreigners are widely reported abroad, jail sentences for Thai citizens committing lèse-majesté are usually harsher than those for foreigners.

Bhumibol was born in the United States while his father was studying at Harvard. He spent the Second World War at school in Switzerland. To act as his latest prime minister he has turned to another foreign-born Thai, the 44-year-old Abhisit Vejjajiva, the son of a Wallsend doctor. Abhisit, who was educated at Eton and Oxford, is apparently a good friend of Boris Johnson – although it is difficult to say which of the two has more to be ashamed of here.

Thaksin, the prime minister overthrown by the last coup, was the country’s first modern politician. He actually went campaigning for votes rather than politicking in Bangkok drawing rooms. His was the only government ever to have had an absolute majority in parliament, and it brought in a series of highly popular measures to alleviate rural poverty. Thaksin set up the country’s first universal healthcare programme.

A former policeman who had become a billionaire businessman, Thaksin has a little reminiscent of Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi about him and his policies were not always well thought-through. His highly confrontational actions against Muslim separatists in four southern provinces, along with a violent and unrestrained anti-drugs campaign, led to many avoidable deaths. But he was hugely popular in the countryside, with his triumphant re-election in 2005 attracting the highest voter turnout in Thai history.

It was not his policies that led to Thaksin’s downfall. In fact, it was his very popularity that sealed his doom. As he could not be beaten at the polls, a coup was only way to get rid of him. The generals accused him of corruption and, of course, lèse-majesté. His travels around the country in search of votes were making him popular. And being popular was the role of the king, not a politician, a mere commoner and particularly not of someone with Chinese blood. This meant he wanted to overthrow the king and set up a republic – or so it was claimed.

The generals ruled by themselves for more than a year, before establishing yet another constitution and holding new elections. They banned Thaksin’s party, but its successor grouping still managed to win.

The new government was under persistent attack from far-right royalist thugs and was harried from pillar to post. Eventually, a few of its parliamentary supporters were bought off. Reports suggest that some of them might have received payments of $3 million each to switch sides. And so Abhisit, the 44-year-old Old Etonian, was appointed premier. The party he leads, the Democrats, is Thailand’s oldest, having been established in 1946 to champion the cause of Thai royalty.

Since the coup, Thaksin has been on the run from Thai prosecutors and their army backers, who have convicted him in his absence. Nominally because of that conviction, he was banned from visiting Britain after the Thais applied diplomatic pressure. What, you might ask, was the concept of political asylum invented for?

Thaksin, who now travels on a Nicaraguan diplomatic passport, has been seen in places such as Hong Kong and Dubai, from where he speaks by video-link to vast crowds of his Thai supporters, who are demanding fresh elections to choose a government with a genuinely popular mandate.

They are unlikely get these elections until the present government finds some way of preventing Thaksin’s allies from winning. Meanwhile, the supposedly pro-business Democrat regime presides over a downward economic spiral.

But the elderly king cannot last forever. Might his successor usher in a new era of calm, democracy and prosperity? That is very unlikely. Like so many of the Thai elite, the heir to the throne, the thuggish Vajiralongkorn, now aged 56, went to a fee-charging school in England – Millfield, which has “non-academic” selection criteria.

He is loathed and feared throughout Thailand – although he, too, is covered by the lèse-majesté laws. He is going to need them.

James Anstruther is a journalist who worked in Thailand until recently. This is an assumed name