Carbon finance - a stock exchange for rainforests

Trading carbon credits on an international market may be the solution to global warming

6/09/2009
By Luke Hunt
Bangkok Post

Scientists have stepped up efforts to save what is left of Southeast Asia's disappearing rainforests with a report that portrays carbon trading as a serious weapon in preserving what's left of the world's natural habitat.

Not that long ago, the prospect of carbon trading on global financial markets had raised the hackles of environmentalists and a few laughs in the boardrooms of broking houses in Bangkok and elsewhere.

However, a new study recently published in Conservation Letters says that selling carbon credits linked to rainforests could prove just as profitable as clearing the land for rice, rubber or palm oil plantations.

It also indicates that forests in Thailand and across the region may have been sold to loggers at fire-sale prices in recent decades, putting the reputation of past politicians at the mercy of generations to come.

Oscar Venter, a conservationist and biologist with the University of Queensland in Australia, and the study's lead author, says the time has come for governments to re-write policy to incorporate the latest scientific findings.

"I think it could go a long way to protect these forests. I mean whether it's going to protect all forests so no more forests are going to be cleared is doubtful," he said.

"But from our results, from our carbon prices, I think certainly in some areas the reduced emissions from the deforestation and degradation carbon scheme will be able to protect forests."

The United Nations has endorsed a plan that would compensate countries for protecting the rich bio-diversity of their forests, which soak up vast amounts of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere each year.

Environmental activists hope the plan will be included in a new global agreement later this year on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, which many scientists think contributes to global warming.

The UN hopes that agreement will be reached at a summit in December in Copenhagen.

Compensation would be achieved through direct financial assistance or credits to countries that can be sold on an international carbon market to companies that exceed their allotted carbon limits.

Secondary markets would emerge in much the same way as they have on stock markets, and the forests would be entitled to the same legal protection as any other corporate asset.

Ideally, values would be dictated by an informed market operating on a transparent trading platform, and given the nature of such assets a futures market would follow. Derivatives spawned by call and put options would be a comfortable fit.

According to Mr Venter's study in Kalimantan, a rainforest would be worth more than a palm oil plantation if carbon credits were priced between US$10 and $33 a tonne (375 to 1,240 baht).

New Carbon Finance, a London-based investment adviser that tracks the market, predicts the world carbon trading market will reach US$3 trillion by 2020.

Mr Venter said Thailand had 28% remaining forest cover, though much of this is likely to be forestry plantations, and had reported only 65,000 hectares per year of de-forestation from 2000 to 2005.

As a result, Thailand would not be a major global player.

"People are really looking at Brazil and Indonesia because they are clearing so much forest every year, the thought is 'get them on board and you've gone a long way to dealing with the problem'."

Despite this, authorities claim Thailand would reap great benefits but the country had lagged in positioning itself ahead of the conference in Copenhagen.

Countries in the region such as China, the Philippines, Malaysia, Bangladesh, India and Indonesia had been faster to implement programmes that promote carbon trading.

Anat Prapasawad, managing director of the Advance Energy Plus Co, recently said this was a pity since Thailand has the potential to greatly expand the business.

"Thailand is one of the global leaders in renewable energy development, which is a key industry that could make more revenue from carbon trading through the United Nations tool," he said.

He said other countries were encouraging local business operators with tax holidays, soft loans and other facilities. Thailand had yet to offer strong incentives to attract operators.

It's a point not lost on David Ashwell, a consultant for the US-based Centre for Clean Air Policy. He sees a day when rainforests are protected national assets that enable carbon trading on a local stock market.

He also said there were many developing countries, including Thailand and Cambodia, with small plots of rainforests, and by working as a bloc their value would increase and so would their voting power in the international system. "Everybody is on a learning curve," he said, "[but] it could really work."

Erik Meijaard, a senior ecologist with the US-based Nature Conservancy, also contributed to the study and says putting a fiscal value on a natural habitat is a modern reality.

"We talk a lot about social values, we talk about environmental values, we talk about opportunities for economic development, but in the end it's pretty much all about money."

He says Southeast Asian governments will need five to 10 years before a viable carbon trading market can be established.

First, he said, a carbon accounting system, the financial framework and good governance procedures need to be established that would allow carbon trading to move beyond the "pet project stage" where it now sits. "Only then will investors trust the system enough to put their money in," he said.

"Once people start paying for actually keeping the forests then there can be a balance between the forests that are used and the forests that are being kept for the reduction of carbon."

If that balance can be found, countries will be rewarded for maintaining their rainforests.

But if the value of a rainforest is greater than the value of the crops that the same land can produce, what does that mean for Thailand's future environmental landscape?

Is Cambodia the future shelter for Vietnamese climate exiles?

Neak Leung (Prey Veng, Cambodia). 16/11/2002: Storm near the Neak Leung pier, on the road from Cambodia to Vietnam (Photo: John Vink/Magnum)

22-06-2009
By Laurent Le Gouanvic
Ka-set

Will Cambodia collapse under the weight of thousands of starving Vietnamese exiles, fleeing fields devastated by roaring waves? Much dreaded by Cambodians, the invasion of their territory by the children of Uncle Ho may result not from aggressive territorial ambitions, but from the dramatic consequences of a global warming that would force farmers into a rural exodus as their lands were gradually lost to the sea. If the scenario of a sudden arrival in mass of Vietnamese migrants on the Khmer soil seems unlikely today, several recent reports point out the major environmental risks which people in the Mekong Delta may be faced with in the forthcoming decades. A new challenge for the two nations after a long common history of much turmoil.

Predicting the future with maps, that is what researchers from the United Nations University, the NGO Care International and Columbia University have endeavoured to do in a report published in May 2009, entitled “In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement”. Supported by documents and statistics, the three authors attempt to understand and explain “how environmental shocks and stresses, especially those related to climate change, can push people to leave their homes in search of ‘greener pastures’ … or just to survive.” On the eight maps intended to present regions of the world that are particularly vulnerable and symbolic of ongoing changes, two focus on the consequences of climate changes in the countries where the Mekong flows.

From the sources to the Mekong Delta
One of them features the enormous Himalaya chain, genuine “water towers of Asia” due to the presence of gigantic glaciers where mythical and vital rivers such as the Ganges, the Irrawady or the Mekong take their birth. The glaciers, which constitute natural water resources, are melting at a worrying pace, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The accelerated melting may jeopardise the survival of hundreds of thousands of Cambodians and Vietnamese whose farming lands are subjected to the Mekong’s whims.

The fast melting of the glaciers of the Tibetan plateau, the authors stress, will likely provoke important flooding, mainly downstream first, that is in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam and Cambodia. In a second time, in addition to the disastrous floods, there may be the consequences of the construction of new hydropower dams upstream - which will temporarily benefit from important flows but may tend, with time, to deprive inhabitants downstream of diminishing hydraulic resources. A tragedy that is already unfolding, the report underlines.

Increasingly dramatic floods
If floods have long become an integral part of the daily lives of those living in the Mekong Delta, as their lives follow the river’s ebb and flow, their seriousness and frequency have been on the increase and become more and more problematic. “[E]nvironmental change (flooding in this case study) is shown to be a trigger for independent migration decisions [in the Mekong Delta] when livelihoods are negatively affected,” the authors claim, citing the testimonies of Vietnamese who settled in Cambodia, in Phnom Penh, and were interviewed for a field study carried out between October and December 2007 for the “Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios” (EACH-FOR) program.

“Disasters occurred so often [in my native region],” then explained one of the 32 Vietnamese migrants living in the Cambodian capital and interviewed for the study “[M]y family lost the crop [and] had to borrow money to spend. Now, my family is not able to pay off the loan so I have to come here to work to help my family to pay the loan.” Among the 32 people - a non-representative sample of the population of Vietnamese migrants in Cambodia -, three quarters of them spontaneously cited problems related to the natural environment as one of the causes that influenced their decision to leave their homes. Half of them even claimed that the environmental issues had been the reason for their departure. “[T]he floods and the storms occurred all the time, we decided to migrate to earn a living,” confided one of the respondents.

From climate change to human trafficking
In the same study, a Vietnamese doctor working in Phnom Penh reported even more tragic situations: some Vietnamese families allegedly sold their daughters to prostitution networks in Cambodia to ensure their survival, after their crops were destroyed by successive floods. Although this may not be made into a general statement, this observation seems to point to an unexpected consequence of climate change: the increase in human trafficking. The writers conclude that the link between the two phenomena is real, although it was not effectively measured.

Flooded worlds
In addition to the fears prompted by the melting glaciers in the Himalaya, there is another threat, which is more localised and addressed in another map of the report “In Search of Shelter”: the rising sea level. Here again, the researchers from the UNU, Care International and Columbia University echo the conclusions of a previous study made by the World Bank, which claimed that due to the density of its population and of threatened farming areas, Vietnam was one of the two countries at risk of suffering most seriously from a rising general sea level.

On the basis of predictions made in February 2007 by the experts mandated by the World Bank, the May 2009 report stressed that in the future, one Vietnamese out of ten would be faced with displacement due to a seal level rise in the Mekong Delta. Today, no less than 18 million people live in the Mekong Delta, that is 22% of the total population of Vietnam. Also and even more importantly, the region is Vietnam’s green belt, as it represents about 40% of the cultivated land in the country, which provide “half of its national rice production and 80% of its fruit production.”

Two-meter increase, 14 million migrants
The authors speculate that, should the global sea level rise of two meters, nearly 14.2 million Vietnamese - a figure higher than the total population of Cambodia, which currently stands at 13.4 million people - would lose their land to the waters. A frightening prospect. Especially when the figures are read in light of the introduction of the report: “[…] societies affected by climate change may find themselves locked into a downward spiral of ecological degradation, towards the bottom of which social safety nets collapse while tensions and violence rise. In this all-too-plausible worst-case scenario, large populations would be forced to migrate as a matter of immediate survival.”

Vietnam, but also the whole region, including Cambodia, would therefore be faced with an unprecedented migratory and humanitarian crisis that may have economic and political consequences. The Khmer Kingdom, itself subject to draught, in areas that already suffer from it, and to periods of flooding, would then also be faced with the arrival in mass of unwanted Vietnamese farmers ready for everything to save their lives.

Unpredictable consequences
However, the catastrophic scenario, which is based on a two-meter rise of the sea level, represents a hypothesis that not everyone agrees upon. The various patterns selected by the IPCC in the 2007 report, which serves as the reference on this issue, foresees that global warming will increase between +0.6oC and +4oC by 2099. According to the various envisaged predictions, the increases would result in the sea level rising from 0.18 to 0.59 meter by the end of the century. The IPCC warns that these figures are to be taken with a pinch of salt, as the Panel is issuing here scenarios that exclude “future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow”: “[T]he upper values of the ranges given are not to be considered upper bounds for sea level rise,” it stresses. “The projections include a contribution due to increased ice flow from Greenland and Antarctica at the rates observed for 1993-2003, but these flow rates could increase or decrease in the future.” Increase? Decrease? Under these circumstances, it is difficult to predict what the state of farming lands in the Mekong Delta will be in the next fifty years.

Prompting governments to react
The most pessimistic predictions therefore offer at least one interest: that of prompting governments of concerned countries to react in order to anticipate and adapt – if not to fight on their own against climate change. Thus, Vietnamese authorities have decided to set up a programme aimed at controlling population movements related to the new environmental phenomena, entitled “Vietnam Disaster Prevention”, which consists in relocating families living in vulnerable areas. The challenge is significant: the relocations are heavy operations as they require not only to find available land but also to make sure that the displaced families will have access to new means of subsistence and social, health and education structures.

In Cambodia, since 2006, the government drafted a “National Adaptation Programme of Action to Climate Change” supposed to coordinate the various operations and information in this area. However, the Kingdom appears as one of the Asian countries least prepared, according to the “Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia” published in January 2009 by the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia. Cambodia is reportedly the country with the weakest “adaptive capacity” in South-East Asia. Although less exposed than other territories to storms and natural catastrophes, the country is, after the Philippines, most at risk of being affected by climate change, due to its weak adaptive capacities.

At the regional level, a lukewarm awareness
Finally, at the regional level, the issue of global warming and CO2 emissions has timidly started to appear at the top of the agenda. On June 16th and 17th, the Asian Development Bank sponsored a high-level meeting on climate change in Asia and the Pacific, while the institution announced the doubling, from 2013, of its investments in “clean energies.” However, a long way remains before the issue of internal and transborder displacements of population be tackled upfront.
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Climate “refugees” or “migrants”, fundamental issues behind the words

While some organisations refer to “climate refugees”, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) recalls that the word “refugee”, as defined in the 1951 Geneva Convention on the statute of refugees, legally concerns only the individuals who have left the country of their nationality due to persecution or founded fear of persecution. Following this official definition, individuals who have left their place of residence for economic or environmental reasons may not be considered as refugees. The terms “environmental migrants or displaced people” are therefore used in the official jargon. The International Organization for Migration therefore uses the following definition: “Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to have to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their territory or abroad.” The issues involved in these terms and their definitions go beyond the linguistic dimension: a person benefiting from the statute of refugee has the right to be accepted on the territory of state parties to the Geneva Convention, a right that “economic” or “environmental migrants” may not claim currently. The UNHCR therefore demands a global discussion on the statute of the new migrants to ensure their global protection and, if required, to be entrusted with new responsibilities… and the funds necessary.

No Borders for Global Warming: Experts

By Pich Samnang, VOA Khmer
05 June 2008

Click here to listen to the program in Khmer

Developed countries are pushing climate change that poorer countries suffer from, officials said Thursday, on World Environment Day.

Cambodia will suffer from global warming as coastal areas such as Koh Kong and Sihanoukville will feel an increase in heat, Prach Sun, secretary of state for the Ministry of Environment, told VOA Khmer Thursday.

Global warming can also lead to the spread of diseases, such as diarrhea, he said.

Cambodia is implementing the Kyoto Protocol and other international environmental agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve forest cover to help the Earth absorb those gases, he said.

UNDP Country Director Lay Khim said Thursday global warming affects all countries, from Egypt to Vietnam. Developed countries are responsible for the most gases, but developing countries feel the most effects, he said.

Baby dolphin's health causes concern in Cambodia

PHNOM PENH, March 7 (Xinhua) -- Though infant mortality is on the decline among Cambodia's endangered Mekong Irrawaddy dolphin population, the overall health of the baby dolphins is of concern, national media on Friday quoted expert as saying.

Two of the nine baby dolphins born in 2007 died - one in January and another last week, said Touch Seang Tana, head of the governmental Commission of Mekong Dolphin Conservation.

In 2006, 14 babies were born, six of which died, he said, adding that these numbers were encouraging given the fact that the previous years saw an average of 15 babies die.

"Before there were a lot of deaths. Now there is only two," he was quoted by English-Khmer language newspaper the Cambodian Daily as saying.

The improvements are attributed to education campaigns over the last couple of years warning villagers not to use gill nets and encouraging them to find work in tourism instead of fishing.

However, the surviving baby dolphins are underweight and look unhealthy, he said, adding that the baby dolphin dying in January weighed only 3.8 kg and the baby found last week tangled in a fishing net 4 kg, some one kg shy of the normal weight.

"The remaining babies are small," he said, adding that the baby dolphin’s failing health is partly due to a shortage in the fish their mothers eat, which is something he attributed to global warming and shifting temperatures.

World Wildlife Fund' Cambodia Country Director Teak Seng said that global warming may be a threat to the dolphins, but there is no conclusive evidence to support the theory.

"We don't have any scientific evidence that supports this casual relationship, therefore further research needs to be conducted," he said.

"While dolphins are very sensitive to changes in their environment, such as water temperature and quality, other factors may be more influential such as diseases and water pollution," he added.

According to the Commission of Mekong Dolphin Conservation, there are currently 140 to 150 dolphins in Cambodia, over some 90 in 2006.

The Cambodian government has adopted a series of measures to protect the animal, such as no use of fishing net in its inhabiting area, and encouragement of local people to salvage those struggling in nets.

Renewed fears for rare Mekong dolphin in Cambodia

An Irrawaddy dolphin, also known as the Mekong dolphin, swims in the river at Kampi village in Kratie province, 230 km (143 miles) northeast of Cambodia, March 25, 2007. (Chor Sokunthea/Reuters)

PHNOM PENH, March 5 (Reuters) - A sharp drop in the number Mekong dolphins born in Cambodia has renewed fears for the survival of the rare mammals, wildlife experts said on Wednesday.

Only three baby dolphins, one of them dead, were found during an annual survey conducted in late November, down from six newborns in previous years, Touch Seang Tana told Reuters.

Their weight had also dropped to under 2 kg (4.4 lb) from 5 kg (11 lb) in the 1980s, the chairman of the Commission for Mekong Dolphins Conservation said.

"A group of 10 full-grown dolphins living in the upper Mekong River had no babies at all this year," he said, blaming a shortage of fish and rising water temperatures which might have affected their reproductive systems.

There are about 150 dolphins living in the upper Mekong River, up from only 90 before a 2006 ban on net fishing in the eastern provinces of Kratie and Steung Treng.

Conservationists had hoped for a surge in newborn dolphins after the ban was imposed.

"Global warming may be a possible indirect threat to the dolphin population, particularly if their fitness is reduced," said Teak Seng of the World Wildlife Fund.

"Dolphins are very sensitive to changes in their environment such as water temperature and quality. Other factors may be more influential such as diseases and water pollution," he said.

(Reporting by Ek Madra; Editing by Darren Schuettler)

Fires in Cambodia seen from NASA MODIS Satellite

Click on the photo to zoom in

[KI-Media note: The Tonle Sap is seen in dark green on the center left]

When the MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Southeast Asia on January 20, 2008, the sensor captured this image of the onset of the agricultural burning season in Cambodia. Places where MODIS detected actively burning fires are marked in red. Like other countries in Southeast Asia, Cambodia’s climate is dominated by the monsoon, with rainy, humid weather from June through November, and dry weather from November to May.

During the dry season, fires are widespread across the agricultural land in the heart of the country as farmers clear brush and the remains of the season’s harvest. Though it is not necessarily immediately hazardous, such large-scale burning can have a strong impact on weather, climate, human health, and natural resources.

Asia's Poorest Nations May Face Worst of Climate Change

By Kate Woodsome
Voice of America, Hong Kong
26 November 2007

Developing countries are likely to be among those suffering the most from the extreme weather conditions linked to global warming. At the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Indonesia, experts will discuss ways to reduce climate change, and to help nations prepare for it. VOA's Kate Woodsome reports from Hong Kong on how Asia's poorest nations are likely to be affected, and what steps they might take.

Rising global temperatures will affect different nations in different ways. Tiny Pacific island nations and low-lying Asian nations face rising sea levels encroaching on their land.

Melting Himalayan glaciers will affect the flow of Asia's great rivers, including the Mekong, Irrawaddy, the Red River and the Salween. The changes could cause both disastrous floods and water shortages for tens of millions of people from Tibet to Vietnam.

And for many countries, climate change could mean smaller harvests.

Shailendra Yashwant of Greenpeace in Bangkok says Asia's poorest nations could become even poorer.

"Poverty exists in the developing countries," she noted. "The governments have not been able to address the issue of poverty yet. Comes along climate change and the changing weather patterns impact farmers, which creates a famine-like situation, and that leads to more poverty."

Some Asian governments have already warned of the challenges they face.

Cambodia says increasing rising oceans will push saltwater farther onto land, and increased salinity will hurt rice crops and limit access to fresh water. Floods and droughts could further damage food sources.

Bangladesh, most of which is composed of low-lying river delta, will be even more vulnerable than it is now to disastrous floods.

And Bhutan says changing weather patterns could have an effect on river flows, harming farmers and the country's hydroelectric industry.

The Pacific Regional Environmental Program, a group established by the governments and administrations in the Pacific, is trying to help nations get ready for changes.

It is improving sea walls and drainage systems in the Cook Islands, fortifying roads against flooding in the Federated States of Micronesia, and planting salt-resistant crops in the Solomon Islands.

Greenpeace's Yashwant says governments also need to make institutional changes to prepare for the hazards of global warming.

"Right now, what is clear is that you're not going to be able to physically stop sea levels from rising by building dams or by building sea walls," she said. "What you need is a larger framework strategy to relocate and rehabilitate all those who are along and who are the most- and the worst-impacted by sea-level rise to another place safer, more secure."

Marcus Schuetz is an executive in residence at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Business School. He says countries need to treat climate change like any other national threat and involve all institutions in the response - from hospitals to banks to factories.

"Most of these problems we have are actually - they are sociological problems or social problems," he said. "They are not purely scientific problems where you have one technology which is going to help you out."

Most climate experts think that greenhouse gases, produced in large part by the burning of fossil fuels for energy, are causing much of the global warming seen in the past several decades.

The U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol requires developed nations that signed it to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but developing countries do not have to reduce their emissions. Environmental analysts, however, say developing countries will probably be expected to join the fight against climate change when the protocol expires in 2012.

The poorer Asian nations lack the money and skills to do so. They are highly dependent on international aid. But experts say aid agencies could have a big impact, by designating funds specifically for green projects.

For example, the Spanish government supports a solar power project in the Philippines. The Asian Development Bank has helped Indonesia explore ways to use waste from its palm oil industry to make clean, renewable and affordable fuel.

Hong Kong Science and Technology's Marcus Schuetz says Asia's poorest nations could profit from the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism. This allows industrialized nations to meet their emissions targets by funding projects that reduce greenhouse gases in countries that do not have to meet the targets.

"It can be some investment into some forestry or other means which are positively offsetting the environmental pollution you omit," he said. "Another thing is you can just plain go into places where renewable energies are not so common at the moment and start, for example, projects building up wind farms for harvesting electrical power from wind plants."

Schuetz says developing nations could also direct foreign investment toward clean technologies.

Dengue fever hits Asia hard; experts question whether global warming to blame

Friday, October 26, 2007
The Associated Press

HANOI, Vietnam: The worst outbreak of dengue fever in years has hit Southeast Asia, prompting the World Health Organization to call for better prevention campaigns as experts question whether global warming is partly to blame.

Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand have all experienced large outbreaks. Most of the victims are children who arrive at hospitals burning up with fever and crying from intense joint pain, a common symptom of the so-called "bone-breaker" disease.

There is no vaccine or cure for the four different varieties of the mosquito-borne virus spreading within the region. Even though outbreaks in several countries appear to be waning, many patients are still falling ill.

"We should really be in prevention mode, putting in place sound measures for suppressing the vector population so we can at least dampen down the epidemic," said Michael Nathan, a dengue expert at WHO in Geneva.

Every week for the past two months, some 350 patients have been admitted to hospitals in Vietnam's southern Ho Chi Minh City. That is double the number from the same period last year, said Nguyen Dac Tho, deputy director of the city's preventive medicine department

Nationwide, Vietnam has logged nearly 80,000 cases this year, including 68 deaths. That is a 50 percent increase over the same period in 2006, with the majority reported in the country's southern provinces where the monsoon season runs from June through December.

Nguyen Huy Nga, director of the national Preventive Medicine Department, said the number of cases has dropped down to about 2,000 cases each week since early October, from nearly 3,000 new cases reported weekly in September.

"We are now concentrating our efforts to completely wipe out dengue outbreaks to prevent possible flare ups next year," he said.

Dengue infects up to 50 million people worldwide every year; WHO estimates 19,000 deaths occurred in 2002, according to its most recent data. It causes rashes, blistering headaches, nausea and excruciating joint aches. The most serious form of the disease can cause internal bleeding, liver enlargement and circulatory shut down.

"This is the first time I've ever been this sick. Blood formed under my skin," said Ngo Dinh Khoi, 33, while resting in a bed he was forced to share with another dengue patient. "It was like someone was putting needles into my joints."

Indonesia has also had a bad year with more than 123,500 cases and 1,250 deaths, already surpassing the 114,000 cases for all of 2006. WHO sent regional expert Chusak Prasittisuk to Jakarta this week to assess the situation and help ready hospitals and the public for the rainy months ahead, when most cases are typically reported.

"I've come here to urge them to prepare for the worst scenario," he said.

Cambodia also has been hit hard, logging some 38,500 cases and 389 deaths — more than double the same figures from 2006. The bulk of those sickened were children younger than 15, said Ngan Chantha, head of the national dengue center.

However, he said the situation has improved in recent weeks, following an intense public awareness campaign warning residents to keep water from collecting in containers around their houses where mosquitoes can breed.

Thailand and Malaysia have recorded a combined 80,000 cases, with 67 and 88 deaths, respectively.

"Experts say it's partly due to global warming because it's increased the amount of water, not only sea water, but fresh water where mosquitoes breed," said Dr. Thawat Suntrajarn, director of Thailand's Department of Communicable Diseases. Thailand's rainy season started earlier this usual this year.

Scientists fear rising temperatures and longer rainy seasons, as Thailand experienced this year, will allow more vector-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria to flourish.

Singapore, for instance, saw mean annual temperatures increase 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) between 1978 and 1998, while the number of dengue fever cases jumped tenfold during the same period.

This year, the number of cases has tripled in the city state over last year. About 200 patients are still being admitted weekly, though only a handful have died.

The last major dengue outbreak to hit Southeast Asia was in 1998, when about 350,000 cases and nearly 1,500 deaths were reported. Indonesia and Thailand were not included in that tally.
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Associated Press writers Tran Van Minh in Vietnam; Ker Munthit in Cambodia; Sean Yoong in Malaysia; Mick Elmore in Thailand; Gillian Wong in Singapore and Irwan Firdaus in Indonesia contributed to this report.

[Himalayan] Glacier loss [due to global warming] to hit Asian farmers [including those living along the Mekong river]

Tuesday, 24 April 2007
Reuters

The loss of glaciers in the Himalayas from global warming threatens hundreds of millions of farmers across southern Asia and China, Chinese climate scientists say.

Commenting on their contributions to an upcoming UN climate change report the scientists said the disappearance of glaciers would first swell major river systems in the region before leading to substantial reduction in water flow.

The Himalayas, surrounding highlands and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are home to a network of glaciers covering 500,000 square kilometres, major sources of water for the Ganges river in India, China’s Yangtze and the Mekong feeding Cambodia and Vietnam.

The repercussions could be enormous for the populations of the region with food production cut and farmers’ livelihoods ruined.

Wu Shaohong of the Chinese Academy of Sciences said these glaciers could recede to just 100,000 sq km by 2030 if global warming continues unchecked.

Chinese climate scientist Qin Dahe predicted, however, that about one-quarter of glaciers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau could melt by 2050.

The Chinese government says lakes, wetlands and grasslands would retreat and more agricultural land would turn to desert.

The chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), India’s Rajendra Pachauri, said glacier loss would threaten disaster for his country, northern India being “the granary of South Asia”.