Cambodia: Opposition Accuses Ruling Party Of Electoral Fraud

Monday, June 23, 2008
Analysis by Andrew Nette

"I think the Cambodian People's Party knows that we are doing well. This is why they are working so hard on their psychological and political game" - Mu Sochua, the Sam Rainsy Party's deputy secretary-general

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia, Jun. 23, 2008 (IPS/GIN) -- The ruling Cambodian People's Party appears certain to maintain its role as the dominant party and, for the first time, win enough seats in the National Assembly to rule on its own after the next election.

According to the National Election Committee, approximately 8.6 million Cambodians are registered to vote in the election, which is still more than a month away. The election will be the fourth to take place since the United Nations-sponsored peace plan in the early 1990s heralded the end of one-party rule.

Cambodian nongovernmental groups and a number of countries are gearing up for a major monitoring effort, and charges of dirty tricks and voter intimidation are already being leveled against the powerful Cambodian People's Party.

"The election process can be considered free in the sense that violence is down, people are obviously not intimidated to cast their vote and the administration is better," said Jerome Cheung, country director for the National Democratic Institute. "It is what happens before the election that does not make it fair, including the Cambodian People's Party's total domination of broadcast media and intimidation of journalists and opposition."

"So far we have found some technical problems, but the capacity of the National Election Committee has been improving and the number of irregularities has been declining," said Mar Sophal, monitoring coordinator with the Committee for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia.

In one particularly positive change, votes will be counted at the polling station at which they are cast on the night of the election.

In 2003, they were transported to collective counting stations which, observers agree, gave increased scope for manipulation.

The most contentious part of the process, voter registration, took place last year with the National Election Committee deciding to remove nearly 600,000 voters' names from the list.

A recent audit of the voter list by a number of organizations, among them the Committee for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia and the National Democratic Institute, found that most eligible voters to be registered and the vast majority of invalid voters delisted.

Some problems are administrative, whereas others "are the result of overzealous party officials acting for their party," Cheung said. "There's no national conspiracy by any political party manipulating the registration process."

It is commune chiefs -- the vast majority of whom are affiliated with the Cambodian People's Party -- who administer the process undertaken manually in handwritten form. Only when the registrations lists are passed on to the National Election Committee in Phnom Penh are they computerized. This opens up the possibility of significant transfer error.

While observers give the National Election Committee credit for improving its performance, many have serious misgivings about the committee's capacity and lack of independence. Concerns include the appointment of National Election Committee council members by political parties and the body's location within the interior ministry. With the exception of the two months leading up to an election, the National Election Committee has no permanent sub-national structure and must rely on the commune councils that take directions from the ministry.

However, the most serious barriers to free and fair elections stem from the country's broader political culture. The country's electronic media, most of which is controlled by the Cambodian People's Party, gives little time to opposition party voices.

Independent media outlets are often harassed or -- as recently happened in the case of one radio station selling airtime to opposition parties in the central province of Kratie -- shut down.

There is also a lingering culture of intimidation that prevents people from speaking out more freely in the pre-election period.

In early June, a coalition of 40 Cambodian civil society organizations expressed deep concern over the increase in political violence in the first half of 2008. There were five assassinations of political party members and 21 cases of political persecution in the first half of the year. Most of the perpetrators have yet to be arrested, let alone tried, by the court system, which is heavily biased in favor of the Cambodian People's Party.

"Cases of murder, threat, intimidation and political prosecution are occurring, especially in far flung areas," said Thun Saray, president of local rights group ADHOC.

Rights lobbies such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have also accused the Cambodian People's Party of political intimidation and manipulation of the judicial system in the lead-up to the July poll.

While lamenting the lack of a more level playing field, commentators concede that the opposition's continued focus on point-scoring rather than presenting a unified front has also contributed to the situation. Eleven parties will be on the ballot in the July 27 poll, down from 23 in the 2003 election.

The most serious challenger, the Sam Rainsy Party, named after its leader, has been weakened by a series of high-level defections to the Cambodian People's Party in return for well-paid adviserships paid for by state funds.

"I think the Cambodian People's Party knows that we are doing well. This is why they are working so hard on their psychological and political game," said Mu Soc Hua, the Sam Rainsy Party's deputy secretary-general. "Our people are under pressure, heavy pressure, every day. Some people with less integrity have been bought off."

The other major political player, Funcinpec, which his a coalition partner of the Cambodian People's Party's, has virtually disintegrated after in-fighting following the ouster of its leader Prince Norodom Ranariddh two years ago. Ranariddh -- who has formed his own party and is running for office from exile in Malaysia -- could gain some seats.

A nationwide grassroots political machine, a formidable war chest, and the backing of most of the country's wealthiest business tycoons augment the Cambodian People's Party's dominance.

A recent opinion poll by the International Republican Institute in Phnom Penh found that 70 percent of Cambodians believe the country is headed in the right direction. While the poll did not posit any direct correlation to voter intentions, there is little doubt that the Cambodian People's Party has positioned itself well to take credit for Cambodia's rapid economic growth while blaming problems such as skyrocketing fuel and food prices on international factors beyond its control.

There has been some speculation that the "youth factor" will be potentially running against the Cambodian People's Party, and more than 50 percent of registered voters are between 18 and 30 years of age.

But John Willis, the International Republican Institute's country director, does not think this is the case. "There is no demographic group that is more pro-[Cambodian People's Party] than youth," he said, adding that most young people live in rural areas and are concerned with their livelihoods. "They want jobs and the Cambodian People's Party is able to deliver them," he said.

Prime Minister Hun Sen has already vowed that the Cambodian People's Party will govern alone, if victorious, ending an unstable coalition deal in place since Cambodia's first multi-party election in 1993.

His decision has been facilitated by a constitutional amendment that allows government to be formed on the basis of a simple majority rather than a two-thirds majority, as was the case in previous elections.

It will be a historic victory for the Cambodian People's Party, which was installed by the Vietnamese when they invaded the country in 1979 and overthrew the Khmer Rouge government, which was responsible for the deaths of nearly 2 million Cambodians.

It would also be a personal triumph for Hun Sen, a peasant's son and former Khmer Rouge cadre, who has destroyed, co-opted or outsmarted all his rivals since being installed as president by the Vietnamese in 1985.

The United States, Japan and the European Commission have announced that they will be sending monitors to the election.

The Committee for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia and the other major Cambodian poll-monitoring organization, the Neutral and Impartial Committee for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia, each plan to field some 7,000 short- and long-term monitors.

Opposition parties are dismissive of this effort.

"All the bad things have already happened," said Hua of the Sam Rainsy Party. "I say to all these international monitors, 'You may as well come to Cambodia and have a vacation on Election Day.'"

Cheung added, "The true test for this democracy will be when there is a peaceful transition of power ... this has not happened yet."