WASSANA NANUAM
Bangkok Post
The bilateral diplomacy between Thailand and Cambodia - which has seemed to wither away - could get a shot in the arm today when the two nations' foreign ministers are scheduled to meet in Siem Reap.
Admittedly, it's only proper that diplomacy returns to the fore in the feud over the overlapping land around the Preah Vihear Hindu temple.
That the sides are resuming talks will go a long way toward calming tensions in the area. The stalemate, however, does not appear as if it can be easily solved overnight.
And the military stand-off over the 4.6sqkm area under dispute looks set to be an overtime game.
For now, each side has deployed about 3,000 soldiers in the 3,000-rai area. Tensions have been slightly eased following a rearrangement of deployment positions so that the sides no longer directly face each other - a positive result of the first General Border Committee meeting in Sa Kaeo on July 14.
It does not appear that either side really wants to go to war or that a feeling of open animosity exists between the troops.
Still, as soldiers stand guard over each other, a theoretical question comes to mind: who has the military advantage in this situation?
In terms of armaments, military analysts believe that the Thai force has the upper hand. It has a greater number of army and air force troops, and more weapons which are also more sophisticated than Cambodian guns. In terms of geography and strategic location, however, Cambodia has a decided advantage from its higher position at the Preah Vihear temple.
For weapons, Cambodia mostly relies on those made in China and Russia, with a few from the United States and France. At present, there is a report that Phnom Penh has moved its tanks into position at Baan Komui at the back of Preah Vihear.
It's estimated the Cambodian army has about 300 T-55 tanks from Russia and Type 59 tanks from China, but only about half of those tanks are believed to be fully functional.
Other than that, it also has 30 to 40 Russian-made PT-76 light amphibious tanks, Chinese-made Type 62/63 light tanks and French-made AMX-13 light tanks.
The main actors at Preah Vihear, however, are some 10 Russian-made armoured personnel carriers.
The topography of the area under dispute, which consists of mountain cliffs and forests, does not facilitate the movement of tanks or armoured vehicles. Because of that, Thailand has focused on the deployment of infantry and eight 105mm howitzers.
When it comes to cannon systems, anti-aircraft guns and rockets, the Cambodian army has artillery from both Russia and the US. These include the M101 105mm light howitzer, the M114 155mm howitzer, the M1954 130mm towed field gun howitzer and M1955 semi-automatic towed howitzer. An intelligence report says six of these howitzers have been brought into the area.
The Cambodian air force mostly flies the rather old MiG family of fighters from Russia. There are about 20 MiG-21 fighters and L-39C fighters/trainers kept at air bases in Battambang and Sisophon.
What Cambodia has at the ready are helicopters, mostly made by France. These include the SA365 Eurocopter Dauphin, the Mi-8, Mi-17 and Mi-26 helicopters.
Thai air capability would be from Wing 21, Ubon Ratchathani and Wing 23, Udon Thani, where about 40 F16s and F5s are ready. This is apart from a number of helicopter gunships, Cobra attack helicopters, Bell 212 utility and battlefield helicopters and Twin Hueys that can be dispatched from the Army Aviation Centre in Lop Buri.
Thailand has a vast disadvantage in terms of strategic location. The Cambodian forces are stationed atop Preah Vihear itself, which is higher than the Thai command centre on Pha Mor E-daeng. The Cambodian howitzer systems would be able to do much damage to Thai positions within range.
The Cambodian supply route is also much easier to navigate than the Thai route. Cambodian troops trek down from the temple to get supplies and rations at Wat Wiharn - the designated neutral ground and weapons-free zone - to the west.
Thai troops have to trek up and downhill to reach the disputed area. Then they have to take a steep trail to reach Wat Wiharn.
The result is Thai soldiers sometimes eat a few hours later than they are supposed to because of the longer, more arduous supply route.
"The hindrance can work to our benefit in a sense that it can add an un-predictability factor to our campaign. Cambodians can't figure out when we will move our supplies each day," a support services officer from the Suranaree Task Force said.
That the Thai side choose to have support soldiers walk up and down the hill instead of relying on dry rations or cooking food for themselves is a deliberate tactic.
"If we have soldiers cooking food where they are stationed, they will be stationary. We would rather have them walk in and out of the area regularly so that it does not spook the Cambodian forces when we make a move," said Maj-Gen Kanok Netrakawesana, commander of the Sixth Infantry Division and the Suranaree Task Force.
Both camps, where some troops are only an arm's length away from each other, have to be extremely cautious against causing an accident that triggers violence.
Both sides strictly ban soldiers from drinking alcohol. Still, they have to go further to ensure they do not make sudden moves that spook the opposing side.
A recent incident occurred when a Thai paramilitary soldier became tired after standing guard for a long time. He tried to sit down. As soon as he shifted his body, the gun barrels of three Cambodian soldiers were aimed at him. The Cambodian soldiers told each other in their own language that the Thai soldier "was about to fire at them".
Luckily, another Thai paramilitary soldier could speak Cambodian and managed to explain in time that the Thai soldier only wanted to sit down.
Another formidable defence advantage for Cambodian troops is Preah Vihear itself. Soldiers are based in and around the temple.
If fighting somehow erupts, Thais would be forced to aim their howitzers at the ancient structure, which is now a World Heritage site. If they did, Thailand would be condemned by the international community. Would Thailand dare take such action?
An air force commander agreed that the Cambodian position drastically limits Thailand's military options.
"If we are forced to attack from the air, we couldn't help but aim at the headquarters, which is the temple itself. And we would not want to risk the integrity of the world's heritage," he said.
For now, air force patrols are taking extreme caution and remain at high altitude since there is a report that Cambodia has in use portable, shoulder-fired SAM-7 rockets which are capable of shooting down aircraft.
It is safe to say for now that neither Thailand or Cambodia want a war as it would bring great losses to both countries.
And no battle would would solve the demarcation problem central to the current strife.
No country can take a neighbour's land by force and gain recognition in the eyes of the international community in this era. Victory can only be found at the negotiating table.
At the end of the day, diplomacy seems the only channel that can save the day. As both sides talk, however, it does seem the stand-off will continue and nobody knows how long it will last.
Admittedly, it's only proper that diplomacy returns to the fore in the feud over the overlapping land around the Preah Vihear Hindu temple.
That the sides are resuming talks will go a long way toward calming tensions in the area. The stalemate, however, does not appear as if it can be easily solved overnight.
And the military stand-off over the 4.6sqkm area under dispute looks set to be an overtime game.
For now, each side has deployed about 3,000 soldiers in the 3,000-rai area. Tensions have been slightly eased following a rearrangement of deployment positions so that the sides no longer directly face each other - a positive result of the first General Border Committee meeting in Sa Kaeo on July 14.
It does not appear that either side really wants to go to war or that a feeling of open animosity exists between the troops.
Still, as soldiers stand guard over each other, a theoretical question comes to mind: who has the military advantage in this situation?
In terms of armaments, military analysts believe that the Thai force has the upper hand. It has a greater number of army and air force troops, and more weapons which are also more sophisticated than Cambodian guns. In terms of geography and strategic location, however, Cambodia has a decided advantage from its higher position at the Preah Vihear temple.
For weapons, Cambodia mostly relies on those made in China and Russia, with a few from the United States and France. At present, there is a report that Phnom Penh has moved its tanks into position at Baan Komui at the back of Preah Vihear.
It's estimated the Cambodian army has about 300 T-55 tanks from Russia and Type 59 tanks from China, but only about half of those tanks are believed to be fully functional.
Other than that, it also has 30 to 40 Russian-made PT-76 light amphibious tanks, Chinese-made Type 62/63 light tanks and French-made AMX-13 light tanks.
The main actors at Preah Vihear, however, are some 10 Russian-made armoured personnel carriers.
The topography of the area under dispute, which consists of mountain cliffs and forests, does not facilitate the movement of tanks or armoured vehicles. Because of that, Thailand has focused on the deployment of infantry and eight 105mm howitzers.
When it comes to cannon systems, anti-aircraft guns and rockets, the Cambodian army has artillery from both Russia and the US. These include the M101 105mm light howitzer, the M114 155mm howitzer, the M1954 130mm towed field gun howitzer and M1955 semi-automatic towed howitzer. An intelligence report says six of these howitzers have been brought into the area.
The Cambodian air force mostly flies the rather old MiG family of fighters from Russia. There are about 20 MiG-21 fighters and L-39C fighters/trainers kept at air bases in Battambang and Sisophon.
What Cambodia has at the ready are helicopters, mostly made by France. These include the SA365 Eurocopter Dauphin, the Mi-8, Mi-17 and Mi-26 helicopters.
Thai air capability would be from Wing 21, Ubon Ratchathani and Wing 23, Udon Thani, where about 40 F16s and F5s are ready. This is apart from a number of helicopter gunships, Cobra attack helicopters, Bell 212 utility and battlefield helicopters and Twin Hueys that can be dispatched from the Army Aviation Centre in Lop Buri.
Thailand has a vast disadvantage in terms of strategic location. The Cambodian forces are stationed atop Preah Vihear itself, which is higher than the Thai command centre on Pha Mor E-daeng. The Cambodian howitzer systems would be able to do much damage to Thai positions within range.
The Cambodian supply route is also much easier to navigate than the Thai route. Cambodian troops trek down from the temple to get supplies and rations at Wat Wiharn - the designated neutral ground and weapons-free zone - to the west.
Thai troops have to trek up and downhill to reach the disputed area. Then they have to take a steep trail to reach Wat Wiharn.
The result is Thai soldiers sometimes eat a few hours later than they are supposed to because of the longer, more arduous supply route.
"The hindrance can work to our benefit in a sense that it can add an un-predictability factor to our campaign. Cambodians can't figure out when we will move our supplies each day," a support services officer from the Suranaree Task Force said.
That the Thai side choose to have support soldiers walk up and down the hill instead of relying on dry rations or cooking food for themselves is a deliberate tactic.
"If we have soldiers cooking food where they are stationed, they will be stationary. We would rather have them walk in and out of the area regularly so that it does not spook the Cambodian forces when we make a move," said Maj-Gen Kanok Netrakawesana, commander of the Sixth Infantry Division and the Suranaree Task Force.
Both camps, where some troops are only an arm's length away from each other, have to be extremely cautious against causing an accident that triggers violence.
Both sides strictly ban soldiers from drinking alcohol. Still, they have to go further to ensure they do not make sudden moves that spook the opposing side.
A recent incident occurred when a Thai paramilitary soldier became tired after standing guard for a long time. He tried to sit down. As soon as he shifted his body, the gun barrels of three Cambodian soldiers were aimed at him. The Cambodian soldiers told each other in their own language that the Thai soldier "was about to fire at them".
Luckily, another Thai paramilitary soldier could speak Cambodian and managed to explain in time that the Thai soldier only wanted to sit down.
Another formidable defence advantage for Cambodian troops is Preah Vihear itself. Soldiers are based in and around the temple.
If fighting somehow erupts, Thais would be forced to aim their howitzers at the ancient structure, which is now a World Heritage site. If they did, Thailand would be condemned by the international community. Would Thailand dare take such action?
An air force commander agreed that the Cambodian position drastically limits Thailand's military options.
"If we are forced to attack from the air, we couldn't help but aim at the headquarters, which is the temple itself. And we would not want to risk the integrity of the world's heritage," he said.
For now, air force patrols are taking extreme caution and remain at high altitude since there is a report that Cambodia has in use portable, shoulder-fired SAM-7 rockets which are capable of shooting down aircraft.
It is safe to say for now that neither Thailand or Cambodia want a war as it would bring great losses to both countries.
And no battle would would solve the demarcation problem central to the current strife.
No country can take a neighbour's land by force and gain recognition in the eyes of the international community in this era. Victory can only be found at the negotiating table.
At the end of the day, diplomacy seems the only channel that can save the day. As both sides talk, however, it does seem the stand-off will continue and nobody knows how long it will last.
13 comments:
Now kinky post is a military strategist. What next?
"It does not appear that either side really wants to go to war or that a feeling of open animosity exists between the troops."
Do you really think that by invading our Cambodia's territory bring joy to its people.
What a bunch of retarded motherfucker you are!!!
If the 2000 memorandum is the Thai biggest gun, then ask Cambodia supreme court to cancel. Like they did when they support us for Preah Vihear enlisting.
The Thai forbid their reporters to go to Preah Vihear under the pretext that this can have a leak of military intelligence.
It's more like they don't want their nation to know that their troops is complaining like little girls.
And the war haven't started yet.
Important points to remember:
A)If the ruling party gave in, yes, indeed, it was a political charade, which played by both sides. B)If the high-level talks failed, the ruling party is partly played political card. C)If the border crisis escalated into a war, then the ruling is completely exculpated.
Now, we're anxiously looking forward to the outcome of the meeting.
People are waiting!
Go Joint Development to save the Temple.
If the ruling party decided to go for joint development, the people of Cambodia should join together and protest using people power.
Say NO to joint development!
I think if we cannot get all 4.6Km, we would compromise to spit half and then stop Thai tourist from coming in to visit Preah Vihea.
Khmer Youn/Hunsen dip shit.
don't accept any compromise, it's our land. Otherwise it would be a treason.
We must exploit our khmer temple though Cambodia only.
Don't be too much presumptuous and look down at us, you, Thai thieves.
Though your soldiers are very well equipped and cruel, you are unable for decades to handle the insurgency of the small group of PATRIOT MALAY or to WIN the 1986 war with SMALL LAO which made your country ASHAMED of YOUR PRETENDED GLORIOUS SOLDIERS ( MORE THAI KILLED THAN LAO).
May be you will win some battles, but you will never win the war. And for 1 skinny soldier khmer rouge killed, we swear to have your FAT SOLDIERS 10 and if the war keep on we will make you terribly suffer as the Malays have been doing to you.
REMEMBER THAT!
We Khmer ready for war against any shameless intruder at whatever cost. We have good geographic location and enough weapons and especially unbeatable bravery and experience in wars to deal with all shameless Siamese invaders. However, We Khmer love peace and If you Siamese are brave enough let us go to the international court. If you don't dare, war will be our last resort.
From what I can remember in 1962, after the International Court ruled that Preah Vihear was belonged to Khmer side, the Thai refused to withdraw its troups from occupying the Temple and the regiment of the FARK (Forces Arme Royal Khmer)under the commendement of Gen. Teap Ben,ordered by H.M. Norodom Sihanouk have to attack the Thai troups from the bottom of the mountain up to take over Preah Vihear. We won the war and occupied the site since.
Cheyyo Iron Fist
Cheyyo Samdach Decho...
Cheyyo Cheyyo..
We are looking forward to seeing our PM's Iron Fist
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