Saturday, September 06, 2008

Who'll blink first [in Thailand]?

Neither the government nor the People's Alliance for Democracy have given any indication they may be willing to drop their very different agendas, said a THAI RATH writer

Saturday September 06, 2008
KAMOL HENGKIETISAK
Bangkok Post


Thai society is facing widespread unrest. Many people are afraid that history may repeat itself, with Thais taking up arms against their countrymen. Then the nation would suffer irreparable harm, noted a Thai Rath writer.

However, the present situation is even more critical than any past period in Thai history, with the real prospect of a violent civil war. Both anti-government and pro-government forces have massive support and both seem to be running out of patience.

The government won't let the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) continue to occupy the Government House indefinitely, as it would affect its ability to administer the country. Meanwhile, the PAD will not be content to merely stage protests when its express intent is to topple the government.

Since both sides have their own timetables, it is a matter of who is going to blink first, said the writer, who expressed hope that any changes would follow a democratic path. It is not so important that the government survives, but the system of constitutional monarchy must remain intact.

As long as Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej does not lose his spirit and resign or dissolve the House of Representatives, the six-party coalition government will continue to support him. Even though Government House is occupied, the government can continue its business; the cabinet can hold its weekly meeting at the Supreme Command headquarters, while Mr Samak as defence minister can continue to administer the country from the Defence Ministry.

Other elected officials can also find temporary offices.

The bigger problem is the hundreds of career bureaucrats who work at Government House, as their office equipment, documents and data are still housed there. This will surely affect the government's function.

Furthermore, with the current political crisis it is hard to expect the government to pay full attention to important issues at hand. The Thai Rath writer cited the example of the Thai-Cambodia joint border committee meeting to negotiate troop withdrawal and joint development of the overlapping areas of jurisdiction around Preah Vihear temple. There is also the issue of border demarcation.

The joint border committee was expected to hold a meeting in Siem Reap in Cambodia on Aug 29. However, an advance party of about 30 Thai officials who had gone to Siem Reap to prepare for the meeting had to come back home, as the meeting was postponed due to the worsening political crisis in Thailand. The resolution of this important issue now has to be postponed to an indeterminable time in the future.

This is only one of several opportunities lost due to the current political crisis. What a pity, said Thai Rath. Thais should be ashamed for quarrelling among themselves and jeopardising the country's future.

Samak's days numbered

Even though he is the prime minister of the country, Samak Sundaravej seems unable to govern, said a Post Today writer, who remarked that the PM had delegated the authority to enforce the emergency decree in Bangkok to Army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda.

The event that led to the declaration of the state of emergency on Tuesday was a clash between the pro-government United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) and the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) around 1am Tuesday.

After achieving its objective of provoking the clash, said the writer, the UDD withdrew to allow the military forces under Gen Anupong to clear the PAD's occupation of the Government House, said the writer.

However, the protesters and PAD sympathisers at the Government House don't seem to be afraid of the emergency declaration, which prohibits the assembly of more than 5 persons. This may be because after the declaration Gen Anupong convened a meeting with police and various army unit commanders for several hours and then gave a press conference in which he said the army would not use force against anti-government demonstrators and would prevent clashes between pro- and anti-government groups. He urged using democratic means to solve the problem.

It seems that Gen Anupong did not fall into the prime minister's trap, said Post Today. It has been widely speculated that the UDD was deliberately incited by banned Thai Rak Thai politician Newin Chidchob, at the behest of Mr Samak, to create a disturbance to allow the government to declare the state of emergency in Bangkok and authorise the army to clear Government House.

Clearly, if the government allows the PAD to continue occupying the Government House for a long time, its authority will be gradually diminished. The PAD is increasingly gaining allies from various state enterprises which have been threatening to strike throughout the country.

Before the clash, Mr Samak used parliamentary means to try to shore up his authority by requesting a joint sitting of both houses to give opinions on how to solve the crisis. There were various proposals from the floor, including the advice that Mr Samak should lessen his strident and confrontational tone, resign, or dissolve the House, which opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva suggested as a way out even though his Democrat party would be at disadvantage in a new election.

However, Mr Samak discounted all suggestions. Post Today conjectured that he just wanted to use the joint session to make himself look good, as well as a forum to condemn the PAD as an unruly mob.

Ultimately Mr Samak chose to use confrontation means, urging his supporters via government TV channel NBT to rise up against the PAD. The writer noted the police allowed the UDD to move their force from Sanam Luang to near Government House to confront the PAD. The police only moved in after the two forces clashed, resulting in one death and several injuries.

Fortunately, Mr Samak failed to convince Gen Anupong to use force to expel the PAD from the Government House.

The Post Today concluded that Mr Samak no longer has any cards to play. He is a lame duck prime minister with no legitimacy. He can only prolong his government for a certain period before he is forced to either resign or dissolve the House of Representatives, wiping the slate clean again.

No more bloodshed

A Matichon editorial also focussed on the clash between the pro- and anti-government supporters on Tuesday, after the United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) assembled its followers at Sanam Luang and then moved to the Government House, armed with weapons. They were met near the Government House by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) guards who barred their way.

The writer questioned the UDD's contention that it never intended to resort to violence. Then why then did they move on Government House, he asked.

Was it really the intention of the UDD to provoke the clash to create violence which would enable Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej to use police and military forces to evict PAD from the Government House and the gathering at Makkawan Bridge and declare a state of emergency in Bangkok?

The writer noted that the political crisis is intensifying, as several state enterprise unions - such as railways, water and electricity - have threatened to cut off services to any government unit involved in using force to suppress the PAD. If the state of emergency continues and force is used, the damage could be incalculable, especially in the eyes of the global community.

For this reason, the Matichon editorial urged the government forces to refrain from cracking down on protesters. They should think long and hard whether they want to shore up Mr Samak's regime or protect the people.

Throughout more than 100 days that the PAD gathered to protest against Samak administration, the police failed to do their duty to keep peace, said the writer. Even when the UDD were mobilising to confront the PAD, the police just looked on without trying to prevent violence.

Now that the military have been recruited to maintain the peace under the state of emergency, the writer challenged them to do a better job.

The editorialist commended Gen Anupong's remark that the military would not use force to expel the protesters from the Government House, but would prevent the UDD and the PAD from clashing again, and remarked that it would be pointless to maintain the state of emergency, which forbids the assembly of more than five persons. Political problems should be resolved through political means, concluded the writer.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Go to hell a Siam!!!!

Anonymous said...

Come on Thai people you can do that ,look at Cambodia the government lead their country till they start from Zero so do Thai go Thai go!

Anonymous said...

They antagonise burma and Cambodia. they had a brief war with Laos. Now they are fighting between themselves.

Bye bye thailand. see you in hell.

Good news for Vietnam and Cambodia.

SpicyGroup said...

Thailand must be careful not to cause trouble with Cambodia. Otherwise, Vietnam will rule the whole ASEAN because they have strong army and get support from U.S. and respect from many!