Bangkok Pots EDITORIAL
The decision by Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat to defy the coordinated demand of uniformed military and police chiefs to resign is high-risk politics. But so was the nationally televised demand of the four top military men and the police chief for the prime minister to quit. Mr Somchai and army chief Anupong Paojinda are clearly on a collision course. But it is already clear who will lose this hand-to-hand combat on the political high wire: the people of Thailand and their growing problems, and the country's image.
Gen Anupong took the wrong step when he gathered up the supreme commander and the chiefs of the navy, air force and police for a provocative interview by leading TV presenter Sorayuth Sutassanajinda. The united front may have been confident of a "digital coup" without troops on the street. Instead, the generals merely upped the stakes and tension. Like the blueprint to bring the Democrats to power last year, the military once again failed to consider all the ways their plan could fail.
The "coup" by TV was an initial failure for at least one major reason. Architect Gen Anupong presented no alternative to Mr Somchai. Indeed, in the normal course of events, Mr Somchai's resignation would bring in first Deputy Prime Minister Sompong Amornvivat as premier. Gen Anupong may have had something else in mind. By not presenting his ideas about what should follow the resignation of Mr Somchai, Gen Anupong alone is to blame for the failure of this silent coup.
But consider: whether it is Mr Somchai or his successor, there is an unappetising selection of national problems, political conflict and self-inflicted wounds on the Thai plate. Any prime minister must deal seriously with the three responsibilities mentioned by Mr Somchai. These are the royal funeral of Her Royal Highness Princess Galyani Vadhana in less than a month, followed by the celebration of the birthday of His Majesty the King, followed by the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Then he also must face the deadly Cambodia conflict, the five-month protest by the PAD and the economic slowdown, identified by the premier as the biggest problem facing the country. This is not to mention the more day-to-day problems vital to those involved. Southern rubber planters, for example, have suffered a huge price drop, and are asking for assistance to get through the low-demand winter months. The rice-mortgage scheme is an economic back-breaker.
As leader of the People Power party, Mr Somchai faces an electoral fraud lawsuit which could see the party disbanded and its leaders languishing in the political wilderness for five years, a suit by hostile senators over his stock market holdings and fallout from a string of court cases and arrest warrants against the party guru, Thaksin Shinawatra. As head of government, he faces the pending results of a committee investigation which could rule he is responsible for Oct 7. Meanwhile, the Human Rights Commission has already found the government guilty of using excessive force. Legally, Mr Somchai can ignore these probes. Ethically, he should not. Politically, he simply cannot.
That is a lot of priority problems. Inevitably, the political conflicts will bubble to the top. The real problems of the nation will suffer - the economy, unsatisfactory border security, foreign relations with Asean partners. If Mr Somchai hangs on, there will be government paralysis. A real military coup will bring major violence. Instead of solving problems, the TV appearance by the top brass has left the country in worse shape.
Gen Anupong took the wrong step when he gathered up the supreme commander and the chiefs of the navy, air force and police for a provocative interview by leading TV presenter Sorayuth Sutassanajinda. The united front may have been confident of a "digital coup" without troops on the street. Instead, the generals merely upped the stakes and tension. Like the blueprint to bring the Democrats to power last year, the military once again failed to consider all the ways their plan could fail.
The "coup" by TV was an initial failure for at least one major reason. Architect Gen Anupong presented no alternative to Mr Somchai. Indeed, in the normal course of events, Mr Somchai's resignation would bring in first Deputy Prime Minister Sompong Amornvivat as premier. Gen Anupong may have had something else in mind. By not presenting his ideas about what should follow the resignation of Mr Somchai, Gen Anupong alone is to blame for the failure of this silent coup.
But consider: whether it is Mr Somchai or his successor, there is an unappetising selection of national problems, political conflict and self-inflicted wounds on the Thai plate. Any prime minister must deal seriously with the three responsibilities mentioned by Mr Somchai. These are the royal funeral of Her Royal Highness Princess Galyani Vadhana in less than a month, followed by the celebration of the birthday of His Majesty the King, followed by the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Then he also must face the deadly Cambodia conflict, the five-month protest by the PAD and the economic slowdown, identified by the premier as the biggest problem facing the country. This is not to mention the more day-to-day problems vital to those involved. Southern rubber planters, for example, have suffered a huge price drop, and are asking for assistance to get through the low-demand winter months. The rice-mortgage scheme is an economic back-breaker.
As leader of the People Power party, Mr Somchai faces an electoral fraud lawsuit which could see the party disbanded and its leaders languishing in the political wilderness for five years, a suit by hostile senators over his stock market holdings and fallout from a string of court cases and arrest warrants against the party guru, Thaksin Shinawatra. As head of government, he faces the pending results of a committee investigation which could rule he is responsible for Oct 7. Meanwhile, the Human Rights Commission has already found the government guilty of using excessive force. Legally, Mr Somchai can ignore these probes. Ethically, he should not. Politically, he simply cannot.
That is a lot of priority problems. Inevitably, the political conflicts will bubble to the top. The real problems of the nation will suffer - the economy, unsatisfactory border security, foreign relations with Asean partners. If Mr Somchai hangs on, there will be government paralysis. A real military coup will bring major violence. Instead of solving problems, the TV appearance by the top brass has left the country in worse shape.
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