Sunday, October 19, 2008

Defending The Nation – Part I: Threat Assessment

Friday, October 17, 2008
Comment by Davan Long

Dear Fellow Khmers,

As the prospect of full scale armed conflict with Thailand is looming, a number of concerned citizens have openly asked questions on our defense strategy and recommendations. Obviously, the best strategy is to live in peace with our neighbors, as long as they respect our territorial integrity. Unfortunately, this is not happening. Our border has been repeatedly encroached. Our bilateral negotiations have yielded no results and we are left with no other option but to defend our motherland vigorously by any mean including the military option.

Although we hope to be able to resolve the border issues peacefully at the international court, the situation on the ground clearly shows that large scale armed hostility is increasingly inevitable. Facing such threat, National Defense Association (NDA) has conducted some assessment on the Thai military structure and capability, and would like to communication this vital information to our fellow citizens, soldiers, military planners and government so that we are all aware of what we are up against, and that we can decide what specific counter measures we must take during the military confrontations.

As summarized in the attachment, the Royal Thai Armed Forces (RTA) has a combined strength of roughly 301,000 regular plus 200,000 reserve, and an estimated annual budget (2009) of $4.08 billion dollar (US). The RTA consists of three service branches - Royal Thai Army with 190,000 soldiers; the Royal Thai Navy which has 68,000 men (sailors, marines and naval aviators); and the Royal Thai Air Force which consists of 43,000 airmen. Furthermore, there are around11,000 paramilitary known as rangers operating along border areas.

Thai military arsenal includes 315 aircrafts, 185 of which are fighters such as L-39, Alpha Jet, AU32, F5 and F16 fitted with advanced medium range air-to-air missiles; over 180 helicopters; 360 main battle tanks; 460 light tanks; 1150 armored personel carriers; 650 field artilleries [11.5 to 39.6Km range]; 240 anti aircraft artilleries; 1 aircraft carrier, 11 frigates; 7 corvettes; 9 amphibious landing ships; 110 patrol boats;

Thai defense is organized into four areas - Western and central provinces protected by 1st Army; North Eastern area under the command of the 2nd Army; North and Northwestern area under the command of the 3rd Army; and finally the Southern area protected by the 4th Army. Thai military current involvements include border dispute and drug smuggling surveillance along Burma border, border dispute with Cambodia, and controlling the Muslim revolts in the Southern provinces along Malaysia border.

Numerically, Thai military strength and budget are impressive. However according to several military experts, Thai soldiers lack combat experiences and are ill-prepared for battlefields. The bulk of their defense budget goes to the staff salary and only minimum amount is spent on training. Thai generals spend more times to exercise their influences in domestic politics than preparing the troop for combat readiness. This is largely due to the fact that Thai defense strategy from the cold war era relies on US to provide protection against external armed conflict and to resort to political solution to avert potential war.

NDA assessment is that Thai government is unlikely to commit huge materials and ground troops for a prolonged conflict with Cambodia. Thailand has nothing to gain from such conflict. However, she is testing our solidarity and determination to fight. If we don't response swiftly and decisively on the border incursions, Thais will continue to repeatedly violate our sovereignty.

In part II, NDA will provide some high level recommendations on the tactical manoeuvering in the battlefields.

Regards,

Davan Long,
NDA

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Cambodia do not have to fight with weapons; we can fight with our heads. Meanwhile we must update our weapons and train our army to be discipline, efficient and knowledgable.

Anonymous said...

My personal feeling is that in order to avoid another coup by top military officiers, the current Thai government needs to make the border clash happen at any cost. So, the Thai public would focus more on border clash than the coup itself. It will bring a bad image to the coup planners if they wish to go while border stand off still continues. It would make thing complicated for coup planners to mobilize the troops for the coup. The public would punish them. That's why Thai PM needs to get closer to the local Thai commanders. PM won't prefer clash, but just a stand off and sometimes fighting because soldiers are human and their patiece is limited. It's a political game in Thai politics. The question is do Khmers want to play the game with them or do we really need to think about the territory? The latter is to have international mediation, but Thai government won't choose it at least until the threat from coup planners is over.

Whether Khmer government wants to play the game with them or not, lives of Khmer soldiers need to be protected and treated fairly.

If a large scale conflict happens, Thais would be united, and the military will take the government completely. Somchai never wants this to happen either. It's a tough situation there. If coup fails, there is a high risk for the coup planners and those behind them.

In my opinion, Khmers should not involve with their game for the best interest of the nation. Thais ALWAYS get advantages while we were in troubles. Why not we? We should focus more on economic development and leave the works to the international communities because we have law and peace accord. Just like Singapore, the more we have strong economics and humand resources, no one would touch us. Hun Sen should really think about this.

Anonymous said...

Defending the Nation,

Thank you. Your article is very analytical and informative. In April 2003, I was part of the U.S military personnel to Thai’s military base in Lopburi to conduct military to military training. Thai military do not impress me at all. They sweated like pigs in a tactical road march with just 2 lbs. Where I and many other Cambodian-American Soldiers can roach marched 20 miles with 75 lbs can do it all day at Fort Bragg, NC.

On television and on the news, often experts stated that Thai military is modern and well-equipped. I unequivocally repudiate that notion. Having been to Thailand, I say that majority of Thai Soldiers possesses American make M-16 that is obsolete and out of date. It more likes the Philippine Military.

They have mixed and matches old uniforms, obsolete military vehicle or HMMVV, old LCE, useless individual body Armor (IBA), and cheap head gear. Yes, Cambodia is more primitive but war is not about equipment, it is ultimately about human hardware.

Cambodia is not modern in term of military equipment but Cambodia is modern in term of coming together to fight for our country, modern in term of uniting, modern in term of thinking, modern in term of using our brain.

This time around, Cambodia is not going to lose. WE are better educated now.


SF Truth: Human is more important than hardware.

Anonymous said...

Khmers will loose no more territory to this siam thief. full stop! Siams have well, military equipments, but Khmers have high moral and are solid in unity. Let them try. I am ready to go to the frontline too if necessary.
Kaun khmer

Anonymous said...

Psychologically we Khmers are much stronger in "the compelling cause" of fighting. A cause to die for.

What is this "compelling cause"? It is the psychological pain of losing so much of what belonged to the Khmer and yet the loss continues until this day seemingly endless because the enemy sees us as weak and small and harassable. Yes, we are to them harassable.

Therefore our hearts are so much more potent because of this compelling cause and we'll swiftly defend ourselves courageously and do it to the best of our capability.

The guilty guy must be defeated or the Khmers will be molested and harassed time again and again.

We will march to our victory.
God bless the Khmer. Death to the uncivilized beast and its blind/foolish supporters.

Let's make the whole world a better place and destroy the damned and despicable that cannot live honorably and peacefully.

Cheyo Khmer!!

Anonymous said...

I have seen the US and Thai war machine, yes materiel wise they are impressive no doubt. But nowhere that I have been that I saw the kind of ferocious will power for fight like the Khmers (rouge, Republic, or the KKK). Khmer troops can function with bare minimum of hardware. We are light, and very mobile on our own soil ( we can sure walk and live on roots, bugs, and frogs).
We can build the Thai army a kind of roach motel which they can check in but never check out.

"He who fights and runs away will live to fight another day" - the wisdom of the native American Indians.

Anonymous said...

During angka loer ( khmer krahom) announce at the meeting. We angka loer will distroy pouk chak krorpot (USA) by using small canoe that made by palm tree. Now a day we had samak mith yourn sen who was a khmer rouge cammander and lead srok Khmer. I think our samak mith can take care our country as a piece of cake and don't need much more wapons or troop. We can fight without shoes and so on...
I bet you he can do it.

Anonymous said...

4:08 AM
I agreed. Khmers are educated and smart now, and because Khmers are based on facts (not fake the story), we are always in the winning side, except the past image had brought us down. In the next several years or so, we would see the difference between ours and theirs. I think the West had no choice but to choose Thailand as their allies. If the Pre-1970 leader didn't ally himself with the communist, the west would have been our allies today. If we are stable like now for ever, and let the young Khmer generations to fight each others using their educated brains, we can even move faster.

Just keep unity among Khmers!

Anonymous said...

Pound for pound, the Khmer fighters are effective and worth every ounce of power they possess. The Siams think just because they were trained and received American hardwares, they should be considered as US Marines or Navy SEALS. I can only imagine what possibility if the US actually built up the Khmers soldiers - light & lethal.

Anonymous said...

go to kiss ass hun and hissssshow about yuon and our border?????

Anonymous said...

Show ah siam that there will be great devastation if Ah sima continues encroaching and not pullin its troops out of khmer territories. Don't just kowtow or bow and crawl to beg for negotiations with siam. The world is having difficulties to have in-dept understanding of the incident since the khmer-gov.t does not make clear stance and reaction. It is unclear by khmer gov.t response and move if siam whether is invading khmers or not!

Aiming not to let the military standoff or future clash happen and prolong, Cambodia MUST SHOW ITS MUSCLE AND GET AH SIAM TO REALIZE THAT THERE WILL BE GREAT DEVASTATION AND LOSS FOR AH SIAM (ECONOMICALLY) AND BIG DESTRUCTION IS FOR AH SIAM IS INEVITABLE!!!

Anonymous said...

The sheer number doesn't mean a damn thing but quality will mean everything!

One bullet and one kill still apply here!

Anonymous said...

Confucius once said: Three armies may be robbed of their leader, no wretch can be robbed of his will.

Geronimo the legendary Apache Indian kept 1/3 of the US Army and the Mexican Army busy for years hunting him and his raiding band of less than a dozen fellow Apaches when he went in rampage attacking both Mexicans and white settlers in the US Southwest.
They could not catch him - he finally surrendered to the US government because he saw the unbearable misery of his tribe's women and children.
Khmer army is fully capable of delivering misery to the enemies at their door steps.

Anonymous said...

go to kiss viet ass how about ar yuon and our border prey norkor ????

Anonymous said...

go to kiss viet ass how about ar yuon and our border prey norkor ????

Anonymous said...

The World and the human beings admire only the powerful, the forts and the winners and disdains the weak and the losers .

You should not forget it.

If we want the peace with the Siameses, it is necessary to prepare now the war with them.

What counts in the war it is the final victory.

And the public opinion will follow.

Anonymous said...

Through out Khmer history, we love to boast how capable to defeat our foes, and eventually resulting in loss of land and dominant by enemies. Now let stop bragging and quietly carry a big stick to defense our motherland. If the full scale war exploded Khmer can't defense herself but relies on Vietnam military might to push back Thai encroachment. And when all things are normalize, how much Khmer land has to cede to compensate the Viet help? Hun Sen regime is not good for Cambodia, BUT majority of Khmer still insisting to vote for CPP knowing that it a impunity government and the Vietnamese puppet . I just can't figure out Khmer mentality!
Peace to our motherland.

Khmer in Cal.

Anonymous said...

To 11:02 PM Khmer in California!

Is that so? Hey! Cambodia still exists as a country and that is good enough for me! The fact that you continue to praise how mighty the Vietnamese is not a surprise because past performance of Cambodian leaders will not guarantee future result! Do you honestly think that Cambodian leaders want to destroy their own country for nothing? How would you like to deal with the World Super Powers who don't give a fuck about you but their own special national interest? I like to see you dealing with dealing with Uncle SAM, the Russian bear, the Chinese Panda at the same time!


By the way, no Khmer people are bragging about anything and it is you who said it! Cambodia had been through 30 years of war including, Carpet bombing, Vietnamese occupation, genocide, the civil war, and the military coup! So is this the Cambodian legacy to brag about?

You are one stupid mother fucker!

Unknown said...

KI Media - Thank you very much for posting the subject article on your your blog.

All Anonymous- Thank you all for your comments and your nationalist spirit. You all have good and valid arguments.
Without a doubt, it is our ultimate goal to live in peace with all neighbors, but not by compromising our territorial integrity, sovereignty and dignity. Thai internal politic is in such a mess right now. Thai generals and politicians are using border conflict to unite their people. We understand this game, but we must stand firm and demonstrate to the Thais that we will not allow them to bully or harass our sovereignty and dignity. Our population and soldiers are courageous, experienced and motivated to defend the motherland.
Our high moral will lead us to victory. However, we shall remain prudent, not to become overconfident or underestimate the enemy firepower. The assessment on Thai military was conducted with an objective to provide our population, soldiers, military planners and government a solid understanding of the enemy organizational structure, strength and firepower so that we can deny them their firepower superiority, and make them fight our battles not theirs. Some days some of us may lead the troops into battlefields, our knowledge on the enemy strength will save our soldier lives.

Part II of the article will provide some high level recommendations on our defense strategy and tactics. I know some of you have field experiences on conventional or/and modern warfare and tactics. If you like to contribute to the next article, please send your suggestion, recommendations to me (davan.long@gmail.com). I don't want the next article to be my article, but our article. We have better chance to prevail in the conflict if more of us engage in the process.

Again, thank you all for your nationalist spirit and wish you all well.