SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Much at Stake for Thai Premier over Cambodia Row

Analysis by Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Nov 13 (IPS) - Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva faces his toughest foreign policy challenge as his first year in office draws to a close. At stake is this South-east Asian kingdom’s standing in a regional bloc.

So far the worsening relationship between Thailand and its eastern neighbour Cambodia has only produced limited public pressure from government leaders in the countries that belong to the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Such response comes in the wake of Cambodia’s brazen behaviour, challenging a defining principle of the 10-member regional grouping—where non-interference in the domestic affairs of a fellow ASEAN member is considered sacred.

Phnom Penh has done the very opposite by the warm embrace Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has given to former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra since Tuesday. Thaksin—whose popular elected government was ousted in a 2006 military coup and who lives in exile to avoid a two-year jail term after a Thai court found him guilty in a conflict of interest case—was welcome by Hun Sen as a very close friend.

On Thursday, Thaksin delivered a speech in Phnom Penh in his capacity as Hun Sen’s newly appointed economic advisor. The fugitive former premier has also used his stay in Cambodia to attack the Abhisit government and to meet scores of his visiting supporters from Thailand.

After initially accusing Cambodia of interfering in Thailand’s domestic affairs, Bangkok turned the diplomatic heat by recalling its ambassador in Cambodia. It then revoked an agreement between the two countries to explore oil and gas reserves in the Gulf of Thailand and later declared that all ties between the two countries will be reviewed.

By the week’s end, Cambodia, which recalled its ambassador in Thailand following Bangkok’s move, had fuelled more tension. Phnom Penh declared a senior Thai diplomat in the capital persona non grata and then accused a Thai national of spying.

The Hun Sen administration has not buckled under pressure from its richer neighbour in another, more politically significant, area. It pooh-poohed a request by Bangkok to have Thaksin extradited, saying provocatively in a letter capitalised in some parts for emphasis that the nemesis of the Abhisit government had been forced out of power although he had been "OVERWHELMINGLY and DEMOCRATICALLY elected by the Thai people."

Cambodia’s reference to elections stems from the manner the coalition government Abhist heads was formed. It emerged after a controversial court ruling last December that saw the collapse of an elected government allied to Thaksin. Subsequently Thailand’s powerful military brokered a deal— including enticing parliamentarians with money—for the new coalition to win a vote in parliament than be endorsed at a general election.

Hun Sen’s dismissive attitude towards Thailand’s concerns—that Thaksin would use Cambodia as a launching pad for his political comeback—has only prompted muted appeals in some ASEAN capitals for a solution through bilateral means.

It comes as Abhisit raised the tempo on Friday in response to Cambodia’s spying charges and the expulsion of the Thai diplomat. He told reporters here that it was aimed to provoke a "violent response" from Bangkok and "the Thai government didn’t fall for their trick," according to The Nation, an English-language daily here.

So far Singapore has expressed worry twice, the most recent on Tuesday, when Foreign Minister George Yeo told journalists that he was concerned and wanted both parties "to find a way to resolve their problems."

Yet when asked if Cambodia was violating the ASEAN charter by interfering in a neighbouring country’s affairs, he responded diplomatically: "I don’t want to comment on that."

A meeting on Thursday night in the city-state between Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono did not have concerns about the Cambodia-Thai diplomatic row on the agenda. The two leaders "did not discuss the conflict between Cambodia and Thailand," reports Bernama, Malaysia’s national news agency.

ASEAN—whose members include Brunei, Burma (or Myanmar), Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam— has during its 42-year-history religously guarded the principle of non- interference. Even military-ruled Burma, the bloc’s most troublesome member, has enjoyed long spells of protection.

The timing of the plummeting relations with Cambodia could not have come at a worse time for Abhisit, who at 45 years and barely a year in office is relatively a greenhorn when ranked against some of the other regional leaders. For this year has the Thai premier as the head of ASEAN, which began a journey though 2009 to transform itself into becoming a more cohesive, rules-based regional bloc by 2015.

Abhisit, in fact, used two ASEAN summits hosted in Thailand this year to cut an image of a modern, forward-looking leader at a time of ASEAN’s transformation. He used his speeches to express his commitment towards a democratic culture and human rights. Groundbreaking exchanges between leaders of civil society and ASEAN leaders at the two summits earned Abhisit credit from non-governmental groups.

Yet not all ASEAN governments, it seems, are impressed by such a record. The interaction between ASEAN leaders and civil society representatives that Abhisit spearheaded remains a sore point.

Bangkok is being faulted for trying to get ahead rather than conforming to an ASEAN tradition of toeing a common line and sticking to a common message.

"There was agreement before the second ASEAN summit that all governments will have a say in choosing the civil society representatives, but then just before the meeting the Thais said their foreign ministry will not get involved in the selection process," said a South-east Asian diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. "This was embarrassing to the other countries who stuck to the initial agreement."

Abhisit’s efforts to impress his regional peers about his credentials to be a voice of democracy and human rights in the region is not going down well either. "Thailand is not Indonesia, where the current leader has been elected twice," added the diplomat. "Thailand’s freedom of expression record is also under scrutiny because of growing Internet censorship."

ASEAN’s lack of a dispute-settling mechanism adds another hurdle. The traditional ASEAN way of solving disagreements by leaders of the region shaping a dialogue will not be easy for the bloc’s chair, given Abhisit’s role in the ongoing dispute.

Little wonder why ASEAN secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan is making a desperate appeal. "The dispute is no longer an internal affair of Thailand or Cambodia," the former Thai foreign minister was quoted as having told reporters in Singapore, according to a report in the ‘Bangkok Post’. "It is a conflict between two member countries of ASEAN and could affect the organisation’s plan to become an economic community in the near future."

Lawless government and Thailand encroachment lie in the same margin

The current arresting of journalist Hang Chakra, and trial in absentia of Ho Van and Meoung Song with the strong charges, as well as the distorting of lawyer to defend Mu Sochua are the same tragedy like the Khmer Rouge and the pain like border encroachment of Thailand.

Impressive eloquence, but on behalf of one of the important leaders in the ministry of defense, Khaou Vireth has his shortcomings of not paving any concrete ideas and feasible backups to the issue of border conflict with Thailand.

I am praising with high class language, but I am disappointed with the lack of feasible strategy to implementing it. This writing compares like the bubbles of the ocean waves.

I suggest H.E.Kaou Vireth has to point out concrete solutions and reliable backups to defend the Cambodian territory land and face with Thailand intelligently.

More than this, the issue of conflict with Thailand is somehow should be in a balanced concern with Vietnam.

More than this, the issue with Thailand is dangerous as the same issue of domestic violation of national constitution, the over-control on the judiciary and assembly branch and the instilling fear inside Cambodian society by the current government led by Hun Sen.

Thailand is encroaching Cambodian border in the same time that Hun Sen and his cabinets are encroaching the national constitution by not complying with the rule of laws. They have relentlessly influenced the judiciary and the assembly institutions.

The current arresting of journalist Hang Chakra, and trial in absentia of Ho Van and Meoung Song with the strong charges, as well as the distorting of lawyer to defend Mu Sochua are the same tragedy like the Khmer Rouge and the pain like border encroachment of Thailand.

KY

Defending The Nation – Part II: The (Probable) Battle Plan

Thursday, November 06, 2008
Op-Ed by Davan Long

Dear Fellow Khmers,

The volatile political environment in Thailand continues to put pressure on the border issues, and Cambodia has a legitimate concern that Thai ultra nationalists may attempt to exploit such volatility to stage a major cross-border military offensive. After all, this is how the current border standoff got started in the first place.

Despite of recent public announcement by both Cambodia and Thailand on their commitment to peaceful solution on the border issues, the military situation on the ground remains tense. Both sides have troops entrenched in and on high alert a few hundred meters from each others. It is inherently dangerous. Accident poises to happen and any misunderstanding could ignite the gunfight.

In part I of Defending the Nation entitled Threat Assessment, National Defence Association (NDA) exposed Thai military structure, strength and arsenal. In this part, NDA will highlight its view or anticipation of a possible battle plan being drawn up by Thai generals, and recommends some counter measures.

It is unusual to openly discuss potential military plan or preparation in public place. Nonetheless, NDA is taking this unusual step in order to inform our population, soldiers, military planners and government of how it thinks the Preah Vihear Battle is likely to be fought by the Thai side should the war breaks out. NDA exercises utmost diligent in its writing and is well aware that this article can fall into the enemy hands. Rest assured that the information presented here has been carefully screened so that it will only benefit our nation. It will not put our troops in any harm way, and the enemy will not gain anything valuable out of this article.

Analyzing the current Thai political context, military structure, arsenal, training and war experience, there is a high degree of certainty that the Royal Thai Armed Forces (RTA) will fight the Western-style battle with a two-phase-strategy. From the Thai perspective, this is not an invasion for occupying the whole country or for toppling the Cambodian government, but a quick and muscular military offensive specifically set out to humiliate, weaken and demoralize the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces, and to ultimately occupy all disputed areas by forces.

To achieve the objective of the first phase, the RTA will likely mobilize a significant number of regular ground troops and call up on its air force to launch a swift offensive, expecting to defeat and inflict severe damages and casualties on Cambodian troops. Once it believes it has achieved that objective, the RTA will promptly redeploy its regular ground troops to mislead the international communities, while covertly sending in its paramilitary units (rangers) to establish military outposts on our soils, occupy our temples, and to assail or/and evict our local population from their villages.

Our best defense in such scenario is not to fight their battle but to make them fight our battle. By not fighting their battle, we have effectively deny them their firepower and air superiority. We must avoid concentrating our troops to resist their major offensive, but prepare to make tactical retreats and regroup for counter-offensives. What the Thai generals really want is for us to commit a large number of troops and materials to resist their direct assault so that they can use their firepower and logistical advantages to slaughter our troops.

Tactically, it is pointless to pay a heavy price in terms of troops and materials for defending a particular position or line along the border areas. Let the enemy troops move in, and then ambush them with coordinated counter-offensives based on pre-established plans to inflict heavy casualties on their ground troops.

Our troops must remain light and highly mobile, and be prepared to operate behind the enemy line. This is our major strength as most of our troops have the ultimate knowledge of the terrain and were grown up with the way-of-life in the jungle. To ensure that our troops can effectively operate behind the enemy line, we must hide critical supplies (non-perishable food, medicines and ammunitions) in sufficient quantities at key strategic locations.

Any major offensive by the RTA will certainly be supported by heavy artillery shelling and low-altitude air strikes. Similarly, any RTA rapid troop movement or reinforcement during our counter-attacks will be done through airlift (helicopters). It is urgent for the government to equip our troops with more portable shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles (SAM) to counter low-altitude air threat. A few well known portable SAMs are FIM-92 Stinger made by US, Igla-S made by Russia, QianWei-1 exported by China, and Anza-MKII produced by Pakistan. During the Soviet occupation war in the 1980s, the Afghan Mujahadeens had used the Stinger to destroy numerous Soviet helicopter gunships, and effectively changed the tide of the war in their favor.

Radio communications are one of the key elements for coordinated attacks, but it has inherent vulnerability that will be exploited by the enemy. We must increase awareness among our soldiers on modern warfare capabilities, especially in the areas of Electronic Support Measures (ESM) and Counter-Measures (ECM). The RTA has significantly invested in its Command, Control and Communications (C3) systems and is deploying such systems to disrupt or/and intercept our radio communications. Our soldiers must be trained how to react to mitigate the impact of enemy jamming and eavesdropping.

Orders should be issued to all combat units to maintain strict radio silence and to only talk over the radios when it is absolutely necessary. Every soldier must clearly understand that every time he talks over the radio (or cell phone), there is a great risk that the enemy will either intercept the message or/and pinpoint our tactical positions. Do not use plain language, use coded words or messages instead. Learn to recognize each other voice over the radios. Ask the caller to verbally authenticate to prevent the enemy impersonating our troops. Do not use the same passwords for each authentication. Do not blindly trust or rely on the radio built-in encryption features. They are likely to be known and already broken by the enemy.

Our troops have years of field experiences in fighting guerillas or insurgency battles. But facing the new threats, weapons and technology, they need to be trained to have adequate understanding of modern warfare tactics and capabilities. There are new generation of expatriate Khmers who have trained and served with Western armed forces. They are well verse with modern weaponry and special ops, and ready to counsel our troops at home. Together, we can blend our traditional and modern fighting skills and knowledge to yield a formidable fighting force.

NDA strongly advocates and hopes for a peaceful settlement on the border issues, but fears that such resolution is virtually unattainable as the current Thai negotiators unreasonably insist to negotiate on a map that their country has unilaterally drawn. Should a military confrontation become unavoidable, NDA is confident that our nation has the will, the strength and the necessary mean to defend itself unassisted. We will prevail in the present or future armed conflict, provided that we are all united, and remain utmost prudent in our strategy and preparations, not to overlook details that could be exploited by the enemy during the battles.

Yours truly,

Davan Long
NDA
davan.long@gmail.com

Defending The Nation – Part I: Threat Assessment

Friday, October 17, 2008
Comment by Davan Long

Dear Fellow Khmers,

As the prospect of full scale armed conflict with Thailand is looming, a number of concerned citizens have openly asked questions on our defense strategy and recommendations. Obviously, the best strategy is to live in peace with our neighbors, as long as they respect our territorial integrity. Unfortunately, this is not happening. Our border has been repeatedly encroached. Our bilateral negotiations have yielded no results and we are left with no other option but to defend our motherland vigorously by any mean including the military option.

Although we hope to be able to resolve the border issues peacefully at the international court, the situation on the ground clearly shows that large scale armed hostility is increasingly inevitable. Facing such threat, National Defense Association (NDA) has conducted some assessment on the Thai military structure and capability, and would like to communication this vital information to our fellow citizens, soldiers, military planners and government so that we are all aware of what we are up against, and that we can decide what specific counter measures we must take during the military confrontations.

As summarized in the attachment, the Royal Thai Armed Forces (RTA) has a combined strength of roughly 301,000 regular plus 200,000 reserve, and an estimated annual budget (2009) of $4.08 billion dollar (US). The RTA consists of three service branches - Royal Thai Army with 190,000 soldiers; the Royal Thai Navy which has 68,000 men (sailors, marines and naval aviators); and the Royal Thai Air Force which consists of 43,000 airmen. Furthermore, there are around11,000 paramilitary known as rangers operating along border areas.

Thai military arsenal includes 315 aircrafts, 185 of which are fighters such as L-39, Alpha Jet, AU32, F5 and F16 fitted with advanced medium range air-to-air missiles; over 180 helicopters; 360 main battle tanks; 460 light tanks; 1150 armored personel carriers; 650 field artilleries [11.5 to 39.6Km range]; 240 anti aircraft artilleries; 1 aircraft carrier, 11 frigates; 7 corvettes; 9 amphibious landing ships; 110 patrol boats;

Thai defense is organized into four areas - Western and central provinces protected by 1st Army; North Eastern area under the command of the 2nd Army; North and Northwestern area under the command of the 3rd Army; and finally the Southern area protected by the 4th Army. Thai military current involvements include border dispute and drug smuggling surveillance along Burma border, border dispute with Cambodia, and controlling the Muslim revolts in the Southern provinces along Malaysia border.

Numerically, Thai military strength and budget are impressive. However according to several military experts, Thai soldiers lack combat experiences and are ill-prepared for battlefields. The bulk of their defense budget goes to the staff salary and only minimum amount is spent on training. Thai generals spend more times to exercise their influences in domestic politics than preparing the troop for combat readiness. This is largely due to the fact that Thai defense strategy from the cold war era relies on US to provide protection against external armed conflict and to resort to political solution to avert potential war.

NDA assessment is that Thai government is unlikely to commit huge materials and ground troops for a prolonged conflict with Cambodia. Thailand has nothing to gain from such conflict. However, she is testing our solidarity and determination to fight. If we don't response swiftly and decisively on the border incursions, Thais will continue to repeatedly violate our sovereignty.

In part II, NDA will provide some high level recommendations on the tactical manoeuvering in the battlefields.

Regards,

Davan Long,
NDA

Cambodia-Thai War and the Hidden Agenda

October 15, 2008
Op-Ed by Sokheoun Pang
Originally posted at http://sokheounpang.wordpress.com

The recent conflict between Cambodia and Thailand did pose serious concerns over our country´s stability and security. We really don´t know to what extent the war will become in the future. And we are asking if there would be any hidden agenda in the conflict, and if not, what is the resolution to stop this unnecessary war?

The possible hidden agenda:

Cambodia

• Hun Sen may want to help his close and shared-interest personal friend, Thaksin Shinawatra who was ousted by the military coup last year, by helping his in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, to stay in power. The PPP governement has always been troubled by the People Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the extremist Thais, who, with their daily mass protests, deepens Thai internal conflict day after day. This act of declaring war of Hun Sen can divert the PAD´s attention from protest against its own government to look at the external issues and calm down or become united with the government.
• It can also be a political strategy of Hun Sen. This is the only alternative to finish the conflict through the help of the third parties - UN, ICJ, and Asean - as Cambodian people wanted. Unfortunately, this resolution is not welcomed by the UN and Asean body as long as the situation is not seriously concerned. So this might make Hun Sen government to have patience for the right time to come.
• If Hun Sen government is really protecting the sovereignty of Cambodia, Hun Sen's government must understand that to pursue bilateral negotiation is not at all to Cambodia's advantage and she might lose her territorial integrity to Thailand. Therefore only a third party´s intervention may help and protect the nation from loss, so the third party is needed and the resolution is to react militarily against the endless invasion by Thailand.
• It can also be a boost for political support for Hun Sen's government and divert the Cambodian people´s attention from the quiet protest of the opposition against the disturbing results of the recent unfair national election, and more importantly, to divert Cambodians from launching another protest against the third anniversary of the 15 October 2005 Supplemental Treaty which validated the 1985 treaty of the Vietnamese invasion back to life - a treaty which he himself personally signed it.
• Hun Sen may be pushed to war by Vietnam for Vietnam will not want to see Cambodia at peace for this will cause the loss of its future political control over Cambodia. And Hun Sen may get any secret agenda with Vietnam as well.

Will Cambodia lose the war? It could be said that Cambodia won´t lose it, but Cambodia will take advantage by asking for international intervention if Cambodian government truly serves the country. If the war is just conducted to help Thaksin´s crony to stay in power, then Cambodia will be absolutely at a big loss.

Thailand

• It can also be Thailand hidden politics to bring its unity by provoking an outrage against Cambodian leaders by keeping its invasion until Cambodia loses its patience in order to wage war against Cambodia. The reason is that the weak Thai government can divert the PAD to become its alliance and be united as a nation to move against an external country: Cambodia.
• It´s about superiority. Thailand and Cambodia keep claiming superiority over each other. We are seeing the rivalry between the two neighbors throughout history. This act means that Thailand wants to take pride over Cambodia that they will not submit to Cambodia.
• It actually about increasing nationalism among the Thais and with this, the PPP government will be able to collect political sympathy among the Thais.
• This will play as a military show-off to its neighbors because Thai military is known as weak and inexperienced, even though they are equipped with modern weapons, they will have a hard time dealing with poorly equipped but better experienced Cambodian soldiers. If they can bug down Cambodia soldiers, it will bring more confidence among their soldiers for future military operations against other neighbors. With this, they will not let the opportunity goes away easily.
• It could also be the case of taking revenge over the lost of Khmer Preah Vihear temple.
• Thai politics is always about saving face. This operation actually may save its losing face from the last few months´ invasion acts as the international community views it, and it also allows Thailand to become righteous by not being the one who declares war first. But it also takes this advantage to ignite war.

All these hidden agenda can be called the strategy of “Uniting one´s Country on the expense of the other nation.” Cambodian leaders must be aware of this inhuman strategy.

Will Thailand win the war? Thailand will not win the war. But Thailand may win over its people´s heart for unity. With this war, Thailand could just regain national unity for a while if possible and save its face but it will then have to confront the international judgment and lastly it will lose its greed and alibi forever to invade Cambodia in the future.

Can we solve the conflict peacefully? Yes!

The resolution is easy as everyone must say:

• The two countries must bring the case to credible third parties: UN Security Council, International Court of Justice or at least Asean.
• It also can be solved through bilateral resolution.

The two countries must stick to a truly honest neighborhood principle and the resolutions stated above must be solved based on recognized legal international documents and treaties, such as the 1904 and 1907 Siam-French Treaty, the 1962 ICJ verdict and the 1935 Siam-French border resolution treaty.

But this has not happened because Thailand has claimed that it needs bilateral resolution rather than the international intervention or it keeps claiming that its country is having internal problems and asks Cambodia to wait. Furthermore, it always flip-flops by claiming it has the will to solve the issues peacefully. Cambodia cannot wait: the longer the issue is prolonged, the more the Cambodian advantage will be lost. Therefore, pushing for a third party´s intervention to stop the war must be the last choice.

However, we doubt Thailand's political attitude because of its dishonesty and treachery, as observed in the following cases:

• If Thailand is truly honest in its national and international politics and is a true friendly neighbor, Thailand should be the one who takes a lead in bringing the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the United Nation Security Council, and Asean, because Thailand always keeps claiming that Cambodia invades its territory and that the ICJ is unfair. But why does it deny Cambodia challenge at the international level and yet keeps demanding the bilateral resolution? Thai diplomacy can reach the rest of the world at any time it wants, so why does it refuse to openly fight peacefully for its justice in the international arena with Cambodia through court and dialogue?
• If Thailand is truly a good neighbor, Thailand must not have sent its troop to station on Cambodian land. If Thailand also claims for the land and have materials in hand recognized by the international body, why it doesn´t use the existing Joint Committee for Border Resolution that the two countries have established to solve the issue instead of sending troop to provoke war?
• If Thailand itself acknowledges its internal political trouble and have often asked Cambodian to be patient and understanding, why does the Thai government allow its troops to encroach on Cambodia day after day? Why it doesn't use the spare time allotted to them by the Cambodian government to strengthen Thailand's internal stability and its nation in order to regain its reputation within the international community?

These are truly unacceptable political games undertaken by Thailand towards its neighbor. The world must see understand this and push for a peaceful resolution as soon as possible in order to avoid any unpredictable casualty from conflicts.

Conflicts casualties as of today

Cambodia:

• Two Cambodian soldiers died.
• Three Cambodian soldiers slightly wounded.

Thailand:

• Three Thai soldiers lost their legs by stepping on landmine.
• Seven Thai soldiers seriously wounded.
• Ten Thai soldiers captured.

Sacrava's Political Cartoon: The Cockfights

Cartoon by Sacrava (on the web at http://sacrava.blogspot.com)