Cambodia-Thai War and the Hidden Agenda

October 15, 2008
Op-Ed by Sokheoun Pang
Originally posted at http://sokheounpang.wordpress.com

The recent conflict between Cambodia and Thailand did pose serious concerns over our country´s stability and security. We really don´t know to what extent the war will become in the future. And we are asking if there would be any hidden agenda in the conflict, and if not, what is the resolution to stop this unnecessary war?

The possible hidden agenda:

Cambodia

• Hun Sen may want to help his close and shared-interest personal friend, Thaksin Shinawatra who was ousted by the military coup last year, by helping his in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, to stay in power. The PPP governement has always been troubled by the People Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the extremist Thais, who, with their daily mass protests, deepens Thai internal conflict day after day. This act of declaring war of Hun Sen can divert the PAD´s attention from protest against its own government to look at the external issues and calm down or become united with the government.
• It can also be a political strategy of Hun Sen. This is the only alternative to finish the conflict through the help of the third parties - UN, ICJ, and Asean - as Cambodian people wanted. Unfortunately, this resolution is not welcomed by the UN and Asean body as long as the situation is not seriously concerned. So this might make Hun Sen government to have patience for the right time to come.
• If Hun Sen government is really protecting the sovereignty of Cambodia, Hun Sen's government must understand that to pursue bilateral negotiation is not at all to Cambodia's advantage and she might lose her territorial integrity to Thailand. Therefore only a third party´s intervention may help and protect the nation from loss, so the third party is needed and the resolution is to react militarily against the endless invasion by Thailand.
• It can also be a boost for political support for Hun Sen's government and divert the Cambodian people´s attention from the quiet protest of the opposition against the disturbing results of the recent unfair national election, and more importantly, to divert Cambodians from launching another protest against the third anniversary of the 15 October 2005 Supplemental Treaty which validated the 1985 treaty of the Vietnamese invasion back to life - a treaty which he himself personally signed it.
• Hun Sen may be pushed to war by Vietnam for Vietnam will not want to see Cambodia at peace for this will cause the loss of its future political control over Cambodia. And Hun Sen may get any secret agenda with Vietnam as well.

Will Cambodia lose the war? It could be said that Cambodia won´t lose it, but Cambodia will take advantage by asking for international intervention if Cambodian government truly serves the country. If the war is just conducted to help Thaksin´s crony to stay in power, then Cambodia will be absolutely at a big loss.

Thailand

• It can also be Thailand hidden politics to bring its unity by provoking an outrage against Cambodian leaders by keeping its invasion until Cambodia loses its patience in order to wage war against Cambodia. The reason is that the weak Thai government can divert the PAD to become its alliance and be united as a nation to move against an external country: Cambodia.
• It´s about superiority. Thailand and Cambodia keep claiming superiority over each other. We are seeing the rivalry between the two neighbors throughout history. This act means that Thailand wants to take pride over Cambodia that they will not submit to Cambodia.
• It actually about increasing nationalism among the Thais and with this, the PPP government will be able to collect political sympathy among the Thais.
• This will play as a military show-off to its neighbors because Thai military is known as weak and inexperienced, even though they are equipped with modern weapons, they will have a hard time dealing with poorly equipped but better experienced Cambodian soldiers. If they can bug down Cambodia soldiers, it will bring more confidence among their soldiers for future military operations against other neighbors. With this, they will not let the opportunity goes away easily.
• It could also be the case of taking revenge over the lost of Khmer Preah Vihear temple.
• Thai politics is always about saving face. This operation actually may save its losing face from the last few months´ invasion acts as the international community views it, and it also allows Thailand to become righteous by not being the one who declares war first. But it also takes this advantage to ignite war.

All these hidden agenda can be called the strategy of “Uniting one´s Country on the expense of the other nation.” Cambodian leaders must be aware of this inhuman strategy.

Will Thailand win the war? Thailand will not win the war. But Thailand may win over its people´s heart for unity. With this war, Thailand could just regain national unity for a while if possible and save its face but it will then have to confront the international judgment and lastly it will lose its greed and alibi forever to invade Cambodia in the future.

Can we solve the conflict peacefully? Yes!

The resolution is easy as everyone must say:

• The two countries must bring the case to credible third parties: UN Security Council, International Court of Justice or at least Asean.
• It also can be solved through bilateral resolution.

The two countries must stick to a truly honest neighborhood principle and the resolutions stated above must be solved based on recognized legal international documents and treaties, such as the 1904 and 1907 Siam-French Treaty, the 1962 ICJ verdict and the 1935 Siam-French border resolution treaty.

But this has not happened because Thailand has claimed that it needs bilateral resolution rather than the international intervention or it keeps claiming that its country is having internal problems and asks Cambodia to wait. Furthermore, it always flip-flops by claiming it has the will to solve the issues peacefully. Cambodia cannot wait: the longer the issue is prolonged, the more the Cambodian advantage will be lost. Therefore, pushing for a third party´s intervention to stop the war must be the last choice.

However, we doubt Thailand's political attitude because of its dishonesty and treachery, as observed in the following cases:

• If Thailand is truly honest in its national and international politics and is a true friendly neighbor, Thailand should be the one who takes a lead in bringing the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the United Nation Security Council, and Asean, because Thailand always keeps claiming that Cambodia invades its territory and that the ICJ is unfair. But why does it deny Cambodia challenge at the international level and yet keeps demanding the bilateral resolution? Thai diplomacy can reach the rest of the world at any time it wants, so why does it refuse to openly fight peacefully for its justice in the international arena with Cambodia through court and dialogue?
• If Thailand is truly a good neighbor, Thailand must not have sent its troop to station on Cambodian land. If Thailand also claims for the land and have materials in hand recognized by the international body, why it doesn´t use the existing Joint Committee for Border Resolution that the two countries have established to solve the issue instead of sending troop to provoke war?
• If Thailand itself acknowledges its internal political trouble and have often asked Cambodian to be patient and understanding, why does the Thai government allow its troops to encroach on Cambodia day after day? Why it doesn't use the spare time allotted to them by the Cambodian government to strengthen Thailand's internal stability and its nation in order to regain its reputation within the international community?

These are truly unacceptable political games undertaken by Thailand towards its neighbor. The world must see understand this and push for a peaceful resolution as soon as possible in order to avoid any unpredictable casualty from conflicts.

Conflicts casualties as of today

Cambodia:

• Two Cambodian soldiers died.
• Three Cambodian soldiers slightly wounded.

Thailand:

• Three Thai soldiers lost their legs by stepping on landmine.
• Seven Thai soldiers seriously wounded.
• Ten Thai soldiers captured.