Op-Ed by Davan Long
Dear Fellow Khmers,
The volatile political environment in Thailand continues to put pressure on the border issues, and Cambodia has a legitimate concern that Thai ultra nationalists may attempt to exploit such volatility to stage a major cross-border military offensive. After all, this is how the current border standoff got started in the first place.
Despite of recent public announcement by both Cambodia and Thailand on their commitment to peaceful solution on the border issues, the military situation on the ground remains tense. Both sides have troops entrenched in and on high alert a few hundred meters from each others. It is inherently dangerous. Accident poises to happen and any misunderstanding could ignite the gunfight.
In part I of Defending the Nation entitled Threat Assessment, National Defence Association (NDA) exposed Thai military structure, strength and arsenal. In this part, NDA will highlight its view or anticipation of a possible battle plan being drawn up by Thai generals, and recommends some counter measures.
It is unusual to openly discuss potential military plan or preparation in public place. Nonetheless, NDA is taking this unusual step in order to inform our population, soldiers, military planners and government of how it thinks the Preah Vihear Battle is likely to be fought by the Thai side should the war breaks out. NDA exercises utmost diligent in its writing and is well aware that this article can fall into the enemy hands. Rest assured that the information presented here has been carefully screened so that it will only benefit our nation. It will not put our troops in any harm way, and the enemy will not gain anything valuable out of this article.
Analyzing the current Thai political context, military structure, arsenal, training and war experience, there is a high degree of certainty that the Royal Thai Armed Forces (RTA) will fight the Western-style battle with a two-phase-strategy. From the Thai perspective, this is not an invasion for occupying the whole country or for toppling the Cambodian government, but a quick and muscular military offensive specifically set out to humiliate, weaken and demoralize the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces, and to ultimately occupy all disputed areas by forces.
To achieve the objective of the first phase, the RTA will likely mobilize a significant number of regular ground troops and call up on its air force to launch a swift offensive, expecting to defeat and inflict severe damages and casualties on Cambodian troops. Once it believes it has achieved that objective, the RTA will promptly redeploy its regular ground troops to mislead the international communities, while covertly sending in its paramilitary units (rangers) to establish military outposts on our soils, occupy our temples, and to assail or/and evict our local population from their villages.
Our best defense in such scenario is not to fight their battle but to make them fight our battle. By not fighting their battle, we have effectively deny them their firepower and air superiority. We must avoid concentrating our troops to resist their major offensive, but prepare to make tactical retreats and regroup for counter-offensives. What the Thai generals really want is for us to commit a large number of troops and materials to resist their direct assault so that they can use their firepower and logistical advantages to slaughter our troops.
Tactically, it is pointless to pay a heavy price in terms of troops and materials for defending a particular position or line along the border areas. Let the enemy troops move in, and then ambush them with coordinated counter-offensives based on pre-established plans to inflict heavy casualties on their ground troops.
Our troops must remain light and highly mobile, and be prepared to operate behind the enemy line. This is our major strength as most of our troops have the ultimate knowledge of the terrain and were grown up with the way-of-life in the jungle. To ensure that our troops can effectively operate behind the enemy line, we must hide critical supplies (non-perishable food, medicines and ammunitions) in sufficient quantities at key strategic locations.
Any major offensive by the RTA will certainly be supported by heavy artillery shelling and low-altitude air strikes. Similarly, any RTA rapid troop movement or reinforcement during our counter-attacks will be done through airlift (helicopters). It is urgent for the government to equip our troops with more portable shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles (SAM) to counter low-altitude air threat. A few well known portable SAMs are FIM-92 Stinger made by US, Igla-S made by Russia, QianWei-1 exported by China, and Anza-MKII produced by Pakistan. During the Soviet occupation war in the 1980s, the Afghan Mujahadeens had used the Stinger to destroy numerous Soviet helicopter gunships, and effectively changed the tide of the war in their favor.
Radio communications are one of the key elements for coordinated attacks, but it has inherent vulnerability that will be exploited by the enemy. We must increase awareness among our soldiers on modern warfare capabilities, especially in the areas of Electronic Support Measures (ESM) and Counter-Measures (ECM). The RTA has significantly invested in its Command, Control and Communications (C3) systems and is deploying such systems to disrupt or/and intercept our radio communications. Our soldiers must be trained how to react to mitigate the impact of enemy jamming and eavesdropping.
Orders should be issued to all combat units to maintain strict radio silence and to only talk over the radios when it is absolutely necessary. Every soldier must clearly understand that every time he talks over the radio (or cell phone), there is a great risk that the enemy will either intercept the message or/and pinpoint our tactical positions. Do not use plain language, use coded words or messages instead. Learn to recognize each other voice over the radios. Ask the caller to verbally authenticate to prevent the enemy impersonating our troops. Do not use the same passwords for each authentication. Do not blindly trust or rely on the radio built-in encryption features. They are likely to be known and already broken by the enemy.
Our troops have years of field experiences in fighting guerillas or insurgency battles. But facing the new threats, weapons and technology, they need to be trained to have adequate understanding of modern warfare tactics and capabilities. There are new generation of expatriate Khmers who have trained and served with Western armed forces. They are well verse with modern weaponry and special ops, and ready to counsel our troops at home. Together, we can blend our traditional and modern fighting skills and knowledge to yield a formidable fighting force.
NDA strongly advocates and hopes for a peaceful settlement on the border issues, but fears that such resolution is virtually unattainable as the current Thai negotiators unreasonably insist to negotiate on a map that their country has unilaterally drawn. Should a military confrontation become unavoidable, NDA is confident that our nation has the will, the strength and the necessary mean to defend itself unassisted. We will prevail in the present or future armed conflict, provided that we are all united, and remain utmost prudent in our strategy and preparations, not to overlook details that could be exploited by the enemy during the battles.
Yours truly,
Davan Long
NDA
davan.long@gmail.com
The volatile political environment in Thailand continues to put pressure on the border issues, and Cambodia has a legitimate concern that Thai ultra nationalists may attempt to exploit such volatility to stage a major cross-border military offensive. After all, this is how the current border standoff got started in the first place.
Despite of recent public announcement by both Cambodia and Thailand on their commitment to peaceful solution on the border issues, the military situation on the ground remains tense. Both sides have troops entrenched in and on high alert a few hundred meters from each others. It is inherently dangerous. Accident poises to happen and any misunderstanding could ignite the gunfight.
In part I of Defending the Nation entitled Threat Assessment, National Defence Association (NDA) exposed Thai military structure, strength and arsenal. In this part, NDA will highlight its view or anticipation of a possible battle plan being drawn up by Thai generals, and recommends some counter measures.
It is unusual to openly discuss potential military plan or preparation in public place. Nonetheless, NDA is taking this unusual step in order to inform our population, soldiers, military planners and government of how it thinks the Preah Vihear Battle is likely to be fought by the Thai side should the war breaks out. NDA exercises utmost diligent in its writing and is well aware that this article can fall into the enemy hands. Rest assured that the information presented here has been carefully screened so that it will only benefit our nation. It will not put our troops in any harm way, and the enemy will not gain anything valuable out of this article.
Analyzing the current Thai political context, military structure, arsenal, training and war experience, there is a high degree of certainty that the Royal Thai Armed Forces (RTA) will fight the Western-style battle with a two-phase-strategy. From the Thai perspective, this is not an invasion for occupying the whole country or for toppling the Cambodian government, but a quick and muscular military offensive specifically set out to humiliate, weaken and demoralize the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces, and to ultimately occupy all disputed areas by forces.
To achieve the objective of the first phase, the RTA will likely mobilize a significant number of regular ground troops and call up on its air force to launch a swift offensive, expecting to defeat and inflict severe damages and casualties on Cambodian troops. Once it believes it has achieved that objective, the RTA will promptly redeploy its regular ground troops to mislead the international communities, while covertly sending in its paramilitary units (rangers) to establish military outposts on our soils, occupy our temples, and to assail or/and evict our local population from their villages.
Our best defense in such scenario is not to fight their battle but to make them fight our battle. By not fighting their battle, we have effectively deny them their firepower and air superiority. We must avoid concentrating our troops to resist their major offensive, but prepare to make tactical retreats and regroup for counter-offensives. What the Thai generals really want is for us to commit a large number of troops and materials to resist their direct assault so that they can use their firepower and logistical advantages to slaughter our troops.
Tactically, it is pointless to pay a heavy price in terms of troops and materials for defending a particular position or line along the border areas. Let the enemy troops move in, and then ambush them with coordinated counter-offensives based on pre-established plans to inflict heavy casualties on their ground troops.
Our troops must remain light and highly mobile, and be prepared to operate behind the enemy line. This is our major strength as most of our troops have the ultimate knowledge of the terrain and were grown up with the way-of-life in the jungle. To ensure that our troops can effectively operate behind the enemy line, we must hide critical supplies (non-perishable food, medicines and ammunitions) in sufficient quantities at key strategic locations.
Any major offensive by the RTA will certainly be supported by heavy artillery shelling and low-altitude air strikes. Similarly, any RTA rapid troop movement or reinforcement during our counter-attacks will be done through airlift (helicopters). It is urgent for the government to equip our troops with more portable shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles (SAM) to counter low-altitude air threat. A few well known portable SAMs are FIM-92 Stinger made by US, Igla-S made by Russia, QianWei-1 exported by China, and Anza-MKII produced by Pakistan. During the Soviet occupation war in the 1980s, the Afghan Mujahadeens had used the Stinger to destroy numerous Soviet helicopter gunships, and effectively changed the tide of the war in their favor.
Radio communications are one of the key elements for coordinated attacks, but it has inherent vulnerability that will be exploited by the enemy. We must increase awareness among our soldiers on modern warfare capabilities, especially in the areas of Electronic Support Measures (ESM) and Counter-Measures (ECM). The RTA has significantly invested in its Command, Control and Communications (C3) systems and is deploying such systems to disrupt or/and intercept our radio communications. Our soldiers must be trained how to react to mitigate the impact of enemy jamming and eavesdropping.
Orders should be issued to all combat units to maintain strict radio silence and to only talk over the radios when it is absolutely necessary. Every soldier must clearly understand that every time he talks over the radio (or cell phone), there is a great risk that the enemy will either intercept the message or/and pinpoint our tactical positions. Do not use plain language, use coded words or messages instead. Learn to recognize each other voice over the radios. Ask the caller to verbally authenticate to prevent the enemy impersonating our troops. Do not use the same passwords for each authentication. Do not blindly trust or rely on the radio built-in encryption features. They are likely to be known and already broken by the enemy.
Our troops have years of field experiences in fighting guerillas or insurgency battles. But facing the new threats, weapons and technology, they need to be trained to have adequate understanding of modern warfare tactics and capabilities. There are new generation of expatriate Khmers who have trained and served with Western armed forces. They are well verse with modern weaponry and special ops, and ready to counsel our troops at home. Together, we can blend our traditional and modern fighting skills and knowledge to yield a formidable fighting force.
NDA strongly advocates and hopes for a peaceful settlement on the border issues, but fears that such resolution is virtually unattainable as the current Thai negotiators unreasonably insist to negotiate on a map that their country has unilaterally drawn. Should a military confrontation become unavoidable, NDA is confident that our nation has the will, the strength and the necessary mean to defend itself unassisted. We will prevail in the present or future armed conflict, provided that we are all united, and remain utmost prudent in our strategy and preparations, not to overlook details that could be exploited by the enemy during the battles.
Yours truly,
Davan Long
NDA
davan.long@gmail.com
17 comments:
Let's start fighting corruption, landgrabbing and stop torturing people's life first if you want to fight Thailand.
We have 100 times worse of invasion at the border of Vietnam. We have a lot of Viets living near our noses (Phnom Penh) why there is no monkey expert got any solution ?????? well you go to prison my friend if you open your fucking mouth on Great Vietnam ?
You dog are allowed to bark on what Vietnam want you to bark.
Mr Davan Long I appreciate your concern and analysis.....this can only be done and achieved if we have true Khmer leaders at the top. Hun Sen is using this border issue with Thailand to boost his status and blind the Khmers from protesting the eastern border with his boss.
We must prepare ourselves, against any Thai attack.
Very good analysis Mr. Davan Long. I believe the Thais will use the Southern insurgency as a scapegoat to invade Cambodia. There were car bombs that detonated in Thailand, and Thai officials could easily manipulate evidence to hold Cambodia responsible for terrorism in their country. We must find a way to cleanse this bad international image in order to win favor to the eyes of the world. Please, let us all hope for peace by preparing for war.
It's well written and presented, and it is obviously coming from people with a defence analysis background on modern warfare.
Of course, we must also assume that the RTA would have already done an in-depth analysis of our military tactics and counter-measure, which we don't know without a good intelligence. As they say "information is power", and if we don't have intelligence information from the other side we will be fighting blind.
Some of our commentators here rightly said the encroachment on the our Eastern border is much worse, but it does not make the news in the mainstream media. Any protesters demonstrate against the Eastern border encroachment will face the risk of being "suicided" and floated down the Mekong and Bassac rivers to Kampuchea Krom.
We are sandwiched between two powerful neighbours, and we certainly cannot fight on two fronts at the same time. Obviously, our current rulers have sided with the Eastern neighbour who has committed a more serious violation of our territorial integrity countless of times.
Our forefathers since the 15th century faced a similar dilemma: being eaten by the crocodile in water or by the tiger on the ground. We will have to learn how to fly to escape both predators. The French gave us a pair of wings once (we got back 3 provinces from Siam) but with a heavy price tag (we lost Kampuchea Krom to Yuon). Let's hope the Chinese, the emerging regional superpower, is more generous in defending whatever left of Cambodia's territorial integrity.
To 9:30 AM how must we choose between two super-powers? History is forcing us to become pawns once more. Now I truly understand Sihanouks stance on neutrality. China or the United States? We must choose Cambodia over these two powers.
I believe in any war there is an element of surprise. The Thai military planners can plan out their attack and undermine Cambodian military capability and there is something that they will never know until they engage in the real war.
It would be a real tragedy for Thailand to attack a neutral Cambodia because now Cambodian leaders have a cause to ask the third party for help and without a doubt Cambodian military will achieve 100% capability overnight to fight Thailand because of the free flow of weapons of all types to match any Thailand modern military equipment!
I have study the history of Cambodian war and the third parties always involve and it won't be the first and it won't be the last in any Cambodian war!
Cambodia will not be a trophy for Thailand!
A lesson that Khmer should learn is that never depend and rely on others to protect our interests, but on Khmer alone and only.
10:02 AM
Hint: The US is on Thai side for 175 years.
9:30 AM
The French gave us nothing these are Khmer territories anyway.
Thai soldiers are overrated. I saw their tanks and firearms during the coup last year, it is too old. The corruption of the military leaders is their problems. Of course, their airforces have F16, L39...IT is useful but with limited power due to the age of those jets. Their reliance helicopters are only for the military transportation, the Bell UH-1H from the VN war. Their Bell AH-1F Huey Cobra are too old and very few only 3 or 4. Black hawks are not combated helicopters, their weakness have shown in Somaly where they were shot down by just RPG.
The Tanks are also old even they are far better comparing to Cambodian tanks. Firearms are mostly M16 dated from VN's war and rarely update. And Our SAM-7 and Armbrust can deal with their F16 and Cobras.
The point I wanna make here is that the Thai has been trying to use psychological warfare with our soldier rather than the military power. They tried to threat our soldiers and the world that they possess world class and western weapons, while that power is actually very limited
The recent battles has shown their weakness. 16 of their soldiers were dead and some of their soldiers surrounded without a fight.
After that you can see that they dare not to raise the news about the readiness of their F16 or their tanks..No more...coz they know clearly WHO THEY ARE...
Cambodian's soldiers are really experienced and never care so much about modern weapons or tactics, coz they think they can fight the thais. They don't even use the bullet proof or proper clothes when given, coz they think they feel unease with that. It is our weakness. We better learn about it no matter what.
Amateur Military Analysis..
Don't be fool this topic is to keep everyone's mind off the historic changes made by American people. This is just a way keeping people around us from want to start thinking about changes.
Well, your're right about the border with Vietnam, 8:15AM. But if you have any suggestion or idea, let's hear it. Don't just bark like a loose canon. It does not solve anything.
The Eastern border, ah hah, what a pain! Everybody gets emotional, exited and miserable. You all need to cool down and put your brains, not emotions, to work. Don't worry, no one is forgetting or ignoring the gravity of the Eastern border.
By the way 10:02AM, we don't need to chose between the two super-powers (US or China), coz we need both of them to deter any future Eastern invasion. Be VERY nice to both of them, boys.
Uncle Sam, being the world police, will help us coz that is the nature of his foreign policy. Beside, he still sees Vietnam as Russian satellite. What about China? Oh baby, she will intervene big time and trust me on this point. China sees (and needs) Cambodia as a strategic ally, just as how she views Pakistan.
Got it folks? It is a far complex issue than you think. The best thing Cambodia (and you all) need to do is to maintain the country stability in order to progress and mature economically, intellectually and judicially. It is a slow-pace evolution that you need to be patience with. Thread carefully, and BE VERYVERYVERY.... NICE TO US & CHINA.
HANOI : No Paris peace agreements talks Xen,only our Day 7 MAKARA victory day.(cause VN occupied illegally Khmer territory at Eastern border and Kah Tral...for years ago)
THAI : If you(Xen)talk about Paris Peace Agreements why you don't talk to VN to move closer the boundery into Khmer territory as well????????? so...the western border (Preah Vihear)let's talking soon.<< cause Thai and VN were the signing comitte,they know well about this meaning article said)
Xen : I follow my boss...
HANOI : Good jobs.
10:43 AM Amateur Military Analysis.. Imagine a die-hard Khmer soldier equipped with the latest combat gear. That is death in the purest form.
Ah chhkae hun sen ning chit dol pel ah kantob chak thnam aoy ngoab hoey, eylov nis vea kampong bom chunh chuok pi reas tuk aoy mae ov vea ning propun konn prom eang chav vea ning puoch vea. Ah slab khmean dey kob hun sen. Ah chhkae na chea pak puok ah hun sen, ahaeng hok mok. Boe ahaeng kroan boe muoy tul ning muoy, day tul ning day, ahaeng kom kroan boe tae chea muoy reas dael khmean kam pleung, khmean am nach. Ahaeng chet soeung chea konn monus, mok muoy tul muoy, min tha tae anh te, nona phseng ko ke hean dae, ah tapae, ah o'bok, ah sam rae, ah kbot reas, kbot dey khmae.
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