RULES OF ENGAGEMENT: A stranded passenger talks on her mobile phone next to an empty counter at Suvarnabhumi Airport.
FREEZE FRAME: These tourists taking pictures of the dormant Suvarnabhumi Airport may be reluctant to return to Thailand amid fears of further unrest.
ALTERNATIVE DESTINATION: The famed Angkor Wat temple in the Siem Reap province of Cambodia.Sunday December 07, 2008
Luke Hunt
Bangkok Post
The aftermath of the Thai political crisis will have far-reaching implications for Southeast Asia as investors and tourists shy away from what they see as a land in turmoil.
Thailand's regional competitors are casting a fiscal eye over the troubled country as it lurches from one political crisis to the next. Food and textile exporters, car manufacturers, golfers, scuba divers, bankers and airlines are just a handful of industries in a position to cherry-pick business away from the kingdom, after the latest anti-government protests ground the country to halt.
But against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth and looming recession in many developed countries, there are also deep-seated fears on a broader level that turmoil in Thailand is putting the entire region's reputation at risk.
This was largely because of its image abroad where Thailand holds a prominent place in the Western mindset as the centre of South East Asian culture, prosperity and relative stability.
"When a country has problems tourists will look at other destinations, and we are a key destination," Cambodian Tourism Minister Thong Khon told Spectrum. "But we want Thailand to solve the crisis as soon as possible because when a country in our region has a problem, then it affects all the countries in our region."
Protests and sometimes bloody battles between pro and anti-government forces reached a fresh peak last week when thousands of protesters stormed Bangkok's two airports, shut them and cut air links with the capital for eight days leaving 350,000 people stranded. Routine operations are unlikely to be back to normal until the end of the month.
The siege ended when a court stripped Somchai Wongsawat of his post as prime minister and outlawed the ruling People Power party (PPP), which holds close ties with ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra _ the first premier to serve a full term _ and two coalition partners.
They had won elections last December.
Sondhi Limthongkul, media mogul and founder of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), immediately halted the 192-day campaign aimed at ousting the government but there are no guarantees those loyal to the PPP and Thaksin will not be returned to power once fresh elections are held. They enjoy enormous support among the rural poor, meaning any return to normality could be little more than a brief respite until the next poll takes place.
The economic impact of such great uncertainties have been noted at the highest ends of Thai life and certainly not lost on Duangmanee Vongpradhip, an assistant governor at the Bank of Thailand (BoT) who has warned political problems were having quite a severe impact on the economy.
He aired his fears after the BoT said it would revise down next year's growth forecasts of between 3.8% and 5.0% and as it announced a cut in its key interest rate by a much larger 100 basis-points to 2.75%, the biggest cut in eight years. The BoT has a well-earned reputation for moving conservatively when setting monetary policy. Most analysts had expected a cut of about 25 basis points, as such the sheer size of the rate reduction underscores central bank concerns for the nation's tourism and export industries.
Putting a final figure on the costs endured by Thais is difficult to quantify.
However, one industry group reckons the country lost US$7 million in tourism revenue a day while Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports were closed and the Federation of Thai Industries estimated another US$85 million a day was lost in exports and imports that never made it to market.
On that basis a bill for the siege alone would be in excess of US$1 billion.
Going further afield, hotels are virtually empty and the Thai stock market has fallen about 50% since the PAD launched its latest campaign in May. Meanwhile, losses incurred since September 2006, when Thaksin was ousted in a coup amid allegations of corruption, defy the imagination.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor's has revised its outlook to negative from stable and the International Crisis Group listed the country as a potential conflict zone, occupying a spot normally held by Thailand's insurgent prone southern provinces, partly due to rampant rumours of an imminent coup and the declaration of a state of emergency.
''The recent occupation of the two airports in Bangkok by anti-government protestors has increased the risks to sovereign credit worthiness,'' S&P credit analyst Kim Eng Tan said when announcing the revision. ''It has caused serious disruptions to economic activities in the kingdom and raises the possibility of widespread violence markedly. These developments will add to the negative pressures of a global slowdown on Thailand's economy.''
Mr Sondhi has warned his movement would return to the streets if politicians loyal to Thaksin are re-elected.
It's a tale that is being heard across the region.
Jakarta-based security analyst with Concord Consulting, Keith Loveard, said there was no doubt that everyone in Indonesia has been alarmed by the situation in Thailand.
He said one line of thought was that the situation in Thailand was proving just how fragile democracy can be. Given Indonesia's history for social upheaval, Mr Loveard said any political fallout from Thailand should prove minor.
''Its economic problems, especially in its tourism industry, might in fact benefit Indonesia, which at the moment definitely appears by far to be more stable politically,'' he said.
Back in Cambodia, Thong Khon said Thai airport closures had hurt his country to the tune of US$1 million a day but the losses were partially offset by tourists in Thailand fleeing overland to Siem Reap, home of the famed Angkor Wat temples, and Phnom Penh. Until a few years ago Thailand, self-styled as the ''land of smiles'', enjoyed a near monopoly on handling tourists heading into Cambodia.
''Thailand is still the main gateway for tourists coming into Cambodia,'' Thong Khon said. ''More than 30% of tourists who come to Cambodia go through Thailand and because of the crisis at the Thai airports we lost 10 flights and 1,500 tourists, a day.
''But at the same time, there are lots of tourists coming now through gateways such as Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, China, South Korea, and through European charter flights _ so we're not that badly affected,'' he said. ''We can cope and plan for it.''
Costly cancellations were a widespread affair prompting Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia to suggest that Thailand surrenders what's left of its 12-month term as chair of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean). Only Burma has faced such humiliating calls due to its atrocious human rights record, and Rangoon was forced to relinquish the rotating chair in 2005.
Cambodia _ once considered the basket case of South East Asia _ has also developed a thriving garment industry and Thong Khon added that any further disruptions in Thailand could see a production shift across to his side of the border. The same might be said for Malaysia, which competes with Thailand in vehicle production and food exports.
On the northern tip of Borneo, British golfer and coach Neil Douglas has seen it before and is expecting a lift in the number of clients he coaches.
He said that business had increased with golfing tourists diverting to Kota Kinabalu in the Malaysian state of Sabah in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami and during the Thai coup two years later.
''The golf industry in Thailand has always been the leading market for golf holidays in Southeast Asia for European visitors, however, with the recent happenings things have turned again,'' he said.
''Using the coup a couple of years ago as an example Malaysian golf courses will no doubt benefit from this again.''
He also said Thailand had proven itself in the golfing world by boasting the best courses in the region but this was changing as other countries had caught-up over recent years.
''Our golf courses are manicured to the same standard as the top courses in Thailand and also boast a wonderful charm and service with a smile,'' Mr Douglas said. ''Malaysian golf courses still remain a unadvertised product overseas but once here its a very pleasant surprise. So this will change and events in Thailand will help.''
Aina Lai, Destination manager with Malaysian-based Pacific World Destination, said any impact on the Malaysian travel industry would not be known until quarterly statistics are released next year while, inside Thailand, other areas, particularly Phuket, had picked-up business out of the chaos in the Thai capital.
''It is probably a little to early to tell as the airport has just opened up and most people who were due for Bangkok diverted to Phuket or Indonesia, from what we have gathered within the last few days,'' she said.
''Even with the Bangkok situation, we still have clients confirming conference and incentive groups to Phuket within the last week.''
Thailand's regional competitors are casting a fiscal eye over the troubled country as it lurches from one political crisis to the next. Food and textile exporters, car manufacturers, golfers, scuba divers, bankers and airlines are just a handful of industries in a position to cherry-pick business away from the kingdom, after the latest anti-government protests ground the country to halt.
But against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth and looming recession in many developed countries, there are also deep-seated fears on a broader level that turmoil in Thailand is putting the entire region's reputation at risk.
This was largely because of its image abroad where Thailand holds a prominent place in the Western mindset as the centre of South East Asian culture, prosperity and relative stability.
"When a country has problems tourists will look at other destinations, and we are a key destination," Cambodian Tourism Minister Thong Khon told Spectrum. "But we want Thailand to solve the crisis as soon as possible because when a country in our region has a problem, then it affects all the countries in our region."
Protests and sometimes bloody battles between pro and anti-government forces reached a fresh peak last week when thousands of protesters stormed Bangkok's two airports, shut them and cut air links with the capital for eight days leaving 350,000 people stranded. Routine operations are unlikely to be back to normal until the end of the month.
The siege ended when a court stripped Somchai Wongsawat of his post as prime minister and outlawed the ruling People Power party (PPP), which holds close ties with ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra _ the first premier to serve a full term _ and two coalition partners.
They had won elections last December.
Sondhi Limthongkul, media mogul and founder of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), immediately halted the 192-day campaign aimed at ousting the government but there are no guarantees those loyal to the PPP and Thaksin will not be returned to power once fresh elections are held. They enjoy enormous support among the rural poor, meaning any return to normality could be little more than a brief respite until the next poll takes place.
The economic impact of such great uncertainties have been noted at the highest ends of Thai life and certainly not lost on Duangmanee Vongpradhip, an assistant governor at the Bank of Thailand (BoT) who has warned political problems were having quite a severe impact on the economy.
He aired his fears after the BoT said it would revise down next year's growth forecasts of between 3.8% and 5.0% and as it announced a cut in its key interest rate by a much larger 100 basis-points to 2.75%, the biggest cut in eight years. The BoT has a well-earned reputation for moving conservatively when setting monetary policy. Most analysts had expected a cut of about 25 basis points, as such the sheer size of the rate reduction underscores central bank concerns for the nation's tourism and export industries.
Putting a final figure on the costs endured by Thais is difficult to quantify.
However, one industry group reckons the country lost US$7 million in tourism revenue a day while Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports were closed and the Federation of Thai Industries estimated another US$85 million a day was lost in exports and imports that never made it to market.
On that basis a bill for the siege alone would be in excess of US$1 billion.
Going further afield, hotels are virtually empty and the Thai stock market has fallen about 50% since the PAD launched its latest campaign in May. Meanwhile, losses incurred since September 2006, when Thaksin was ousted in a coup amid allegations of corruption, defy the imagination.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor's has revised its outlook to negative from stable and the International Crisis Group listed the country as a potential conflict zone, occupying a spot normally held by Thailand's insurgent prone southern provinces, partly due to rampant rumours of an imminent coup and the declaration of a state of emergency.
''The recent occupation of the two airports in Bangkok by anti-government protestors has increased the risks to sovereign credit worthiness,'' S&P credit analyst Kim Eng Tan said when announcing the revision. ''It has caused serious disruptions to economic activities in the kingdom and raises the possibility of widespread violence markedly. These developments will add to the negative pressures of a global slowdown on Thailand's economy.''
Mr Sondhi has warned his movement would return to the streets if politicians loyal to Thaksin are re-elected.
It's a tale that is being heard across the region.
Jakarta-based security analyst with Concord Consulting, Keith Loveard, said there was no doubt that everyone in Indonesia has been alarmed by the situation in Thailand.
He said one line of thought was that the situation in Thailand was proving just how fragile democracy can be. Given Indonesia's history for social upheaval, Mr Loveard said any political fallout from Thailand should prove minor.
''Its economic problems, especially in its tourism industry, might in fact benefit Indonesia, which at the moment definitely appears by far to be more stable politically,'' he said.
Back in Cambodia, Thong Khon said Thai airport closures had hurt his country to the tune of US$1 million a day but the losses were partially offset by tourists in Thailand fleeing overland to Siem Reap, home of the famed Angkor Wat temples, and Phnom Penh. Until a few years ago Thailand, self-styled as the ''land of smiles'', enjoyed a near monopoly on handling tourists heading into Cambodia.
''Thailand is still the main gateway for tourists coming into Cambodia,'' Thong Khon said. ''More than 30% of tourists who come to Cambodia go through Thailand and because of the crisis at the Thai airports we lost 10 flights and 1,500 tourists, a day.
''But at the same time, there are lots of tourists coming now through gateways such as Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, China, South Korea, and through European charter flights _ so we're not that badly affected,'' he said. ''We can cope and plan for it.''
Costly cancellations were a widespread affair prompting Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia to suggest that Thailand surrenders what's left of its 12-month term as chair of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean). Only Burma has faced such humiliating calls due to its atrocious human rights record, and Rangoon was forced to relinquish the rotating chair in 2005.
Cambodia _ once considered the basket case of South East Asia _ has also developed a thriving garment industry and Thong Khon added that any further disruptions in Thailand could see a production shift across to his side of the border. The same might be said for Malaysia, which competes with Thailand in vehicle production and food exports.
On the northern tip of Borneo, British golfer and coach Neil Douglas has seen it before and is expecting a lift in the number of clients he coaches.
He said that business had increased with golfing tourists diverting to Kota Kinabalu in the Malaysian state of Sabah in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami and during the Thai coup two years later.
''The golf industry in Thailand has always been the leading market for golf holidays in Southeast Asia for European visitors, however, with the recent happenings things have turned again,'' he said.
''Using the coup a couple of years ago as an example Malaysian golf courses will no doubt benefit from this again.''
He also said Thailand had proven itself in the golfing world by boasting the best courses in the region but this was changing as other countries had caught-up over recent years.
''Our golf courses are manicured to the same standard as the top courses in Thailand and also boast a wonderful charm and service with a smile,'' Mr Douglas said. ''Malaysian golf courses still remain a unadvertised product overseas but once here its a very pleasant surprise. So this will change and events in Thailand will help.''
Aina Lai, Destination manager with Malaysian-based Pacific World Destination, said any impact on the Malaysian travel industry would not be known until quarterly statistics are released next year while, inside Thailand, other areas, particularly Phuket, had picked-up business out of the chaos in the Thai capital.
''It is probably a little to early to tell as the airport has just opened up and most people who were due for Bangkok diverted to Phuket or Indonesia, from what we have gathered within the last few days,'' she said.
''Even with the Bangkok situation, we still have clients confirming conference and incentive groups to Phuket within the last week.''
2 comments:
cambodia need to ask to build larger airports. our airports are probably the smallest in the world. wake up, please call for large scale airports insfrastructure so we can be proud of cambodia when we see large airports like changi in singapore or something. i don't understand why french company wants to build everything so small in cambodia? wake up! we need large airport for long haul flights and very large jets too. the present aiport in siem reap needs to be turned to an executive airport and a newer, larger airfield ought to be built in another location as this one is so near the angkor archaeological park. don't tell me that cambodia can't do it, it's all in the mind, my dear. have some vision and vision will take us far and better places. thank you and god bless cambodia.
well combodia will never get a new airport.
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