Unrest a blow to democracy

Lawless protests that shuttered Thailand's airports caused massive economic damage, with police unable or unwilling to uproot them. (PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Dec 14, 2008
AFP

"Although Cambodia saw another round of successful elections in July, Prime Minister Hun Sen has largely cemented his 23-year iron-fist rule by intimidating and undercutting his rivals."

BANGKOK - LAWLESS protests that shuttered Thailand's airports will be seen by authoritarian regimes in an increasingly undemocratic Southeast Asia as a vindication of their own iron rule, analysts say.

For eight days, protesters determined to bring down a democratically-elected government blockaded Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi international airport causing massive economic damage, with police unable or unwilling to uproot them.

They only agreed to leave when a court dissolved the ruling party and forced the Thai prime minister from office in early December, leaving the kingdom scrambling to put together a new coalition government.

'There may be some people who are saying 'if this is what democracy leads to, then maybe we're better off without it',' said Mr John Virgoe, Southeast Asia director for global think-tank International Crisis Group.

Thailand's reputation as a beacon for democracy in the region was already tarnished after the army removed twice-elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a coup in September 2006 following massive street protests.

Elections in December 2007 notionally returned the kingdom to democracy, but two prime ministers aligned to Thaksin have been removed by court decisions which critics have labelled 'disguised coups'.

Mr Virgoe said that Indonesia's democracy was flourishing with elections due next year, but said there were few other shining lights in the region.

'Indonesia aside, it is hard to point to anything by way of democracy in Southeast Asia that you could feel particularly encouraged about,' he said.

'The Philippines is in a perpetual crisis and now Thailand, which always was the bell-wether for democracy in Southeast Asia, has allowed three prime ministers to get kicked aside by court action and action on the streets.'

Elsewhere in the region, Myanmar has been ruled by the military since 1962 and keeps pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi locked up.

The junta has promised elections in 2010, but pro-democracy groups say this is simply a ploy to legitimize their rule.

Although Cambodia saw another round of successful elections in July, Prime Minister Hun Sen has largely cemented his 23-year iron-fist rule by intimidating and undercutting his rivals.

Malaysia's own version of democracy has been sullied by suppression of the media, widespread corruption in politics and business, election-rigging and a lack of faith in the police and judiciary.

The departure in 2003 of premier Mahathir Mohamad, who ruled for two decades, lifted the lid a little and allowed a measure more freedom, but his successor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi failed to make good on his promise of reform.

Vietnam and its smaller neighbour Laos have been ruled by communist governments since their 1975 victories over US-backed forces that ended the Vietnam War.

Both have introduced market reforms, but politically they remain authoritarian states with a tight grip on all political activity and the media.

Mr Carlyle Thayer, a Southeast Asia specialist and visiting fellow at the Australian National University, said Thailand's recent turmoil received heavy media coverage in Vietnam.

'It's a good example to the Vietnamese what happens if you do try to adopt democratic norms,' he said.

Thayer said Thailand's troubles also weakened its position in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which is in the process of adopting a common charter with a human rights bill.

Singapore, which has been dominated by one party since independence in 1965, 'would be absolutely shocked' by the Thai experience, he said.

'Even the opposition, I think, in Singapore would be shocked by that because of the violent aspect and the destruction to the economy,' Mr Thayer said.

Mr Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said Myanmar, Vietnam and even China would all be wary.

'They are very uneasy about this whole civil society movement and protests and the machinations and mechanics and dynamics of democratisation,' he said.

'Thailand will be used by the repressive regimes, less democratic regimes, as a justification for maintaining things the way they are.'

But Virgoe warns that although there may be short-term boons to authoritarian governments such as economic growth and relative stability, the long-term effects can be catastrophic.

'You can see from the history of a number of countries in Southeast Asia, that without democracy, social strains build up, problems build up, nepotism builds up and corruption builds up to the point that it can explode,' he said.

And the slide back from democracy does not bode well for Asean, which has tried to position itself as the European Union of Asia.

'I think the setbacks in Malaysia and Thailand are quiet but significant blows,' Mr Thitinan said.