November 12, 2009
By Suthichai Yoon
The Nation
Two great puzzles have kept me totally mystified over the Hun Sen-Thaksin-Abhisit affair:
1. Cambodian Premier Hun Sen says this spat has nothing to do with the two countries. Nor does it have anything to do with the armed forces on both sides. It's strictly a confrontation between him and the Thai premier, Abhisit Vejjajiva.
2. One part of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra's inner circle (yes, he has several layers of them) has privately warned him that Hun Sen could in fact be - don't laugh - a double agent: He may be trying to snare Thaksin with his public statements to welcome him to Phnom Penh. But once there, Hun Sen may trap Thaksin and deliver him to Abhisit.
If I am naive enough to believe the first claim, I probably would have to lend some credence to the second - much wilder - story. On the other hand, if I somehow manage to come to the conclusion that the first statement is too comical to be true, I would have to dismiss the second one as an absurd conspiracy theory.
I must admit that Hun Sen's attempt to "personalise" his conflict with Thailand is a brilliant diplomatic stroke, except that it sounds too much like a hooligan challenging his neighbour to a fight after ganging up with another buddy who had split up with the latter. The guy also happens to be the target of a police manhunt.
But the ongoing flap between the two countries isn't a gangland war. It's a diplomatic tussle between two sovereign states - or that's what Hun Sen, prodded by his "good friend Thaksin" - has made it out to be.
The ties between Hun Sen and Thaksin may be "personal". And few people have any doubt that there are lots of "personal gains" to be made by the two. But when Hun Sen decided to make his Thai friend - the subject of an extradition request from the Thai government - an official economic adviser, the Cambodian premier inevitably raised the bar to the uncomfortable level of a diplomatic showdown.
Thaksin, likewise, has "personalised" his whole battle with his own country. For him, it's all about "my personal assets" and "my popularity" and "my political future". It has never been about the Thai Rak Thai Party, or Palang Prachachon, or even today the Pheu Thai Party. It's all about Thaksin.
Everything being equal, and if logic prevails, Hun Sen should be protecting Cambodia's benefits and Thaksin should be primarily concerned about Thailand's interests. How, then, do you explain the fact that Hun Sen and Thaksin are now on the same side in the battle against Thailand?
The only explanation, however implausible, is that these two remarkable politicians seem to think everything is "personal" in politics. In other words, for them, the line between national interests and personal benefit is always blurred - and with staggering political control, they might have somehow convinced themselves that the whole country's resources are, or should be, under their personal jurisdiction.
That's where Hun Sen's hubris lies. He probably thinks he could wage a "personal war" on behalf of Thaksin without placing his country's interests at risk. What's more, he might even think that if he could put Thaksin back into power in Thailand, the latter would be at his beck and call. Thaksin would become his personal running dog.
That brings me to the second big riddle: Some of Thaksin's lieutenants are beginning to wonder whether Hun Sen is playing a dangerous game. There must be something much more menacing than meets the eye. These aides simply can't believe the Khmer premier can do anything straight. Hun Sen's vigorous public stand to defend a neighbouring country's fugitive ex-premier is simply too good to be true.
Some of Thaksin's aides are asking: Is it possible that Hun Sen has in fact colluded with Abhisit to ensnare Thaksin into Cambodia so that he can detain the former Thai leader and then deliver him to the Thai government?
I must confess, I am not sure whether to believe the two theories - or to take the first seriously and dismiss the second out of hand.
But since I subscribe to the adage that "birds of a feather flock together", I am tempted to think perhaps both myths may be right. Or both could be wrong … which means that since both men are basically after personal benefits disguised as national interests, the possibility of mutual back-stabbing and betrayal at every turn can't be ruled out at all - not until Thaksin leaves Phnom Penh safely, that is.
But then, if you think the second story is preposterous, you would have to say the same about the first.
These are absurd times, after all.
1. Cambodian Premier Hun Sen says this spat has nothing to do with the two countries. Nor does it have anything to do with the armed forces on both sides. It's strictly a confrontation between him and the Thai premier, Abhisit Vejjajiva.
2. One part of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra's inner circle (yes, he has several layers of them) has privately warned him that Hun Sen could in fact be - don't laugh - a double agent: He may be trying to snare Thaksin with his public statements to welcome him to Phnom Penh. But once there, Hun Sen may trap Thaksin and deliver him to Abhisit.
If I am naive enough to believe the first claim, I probably would have to lend some credence to the second - much wilder - story. On the other hand, if I somehow manage to come to the conclusion that the first statement is too comical to be true, I would have to dismiss the second one as an absurd conspiracy theory.
I must admit that Hun Sen's attempt to "personalise" his conflict with Thailand is a brilliant diplomatic stroke, except that it sounds too much like a hooligan challenging his neighbour to a fight after ganging up with another buddy who had split up with the latter. The guy also happens to be the target of a police manhunt.
But the ongoing flap between the two countries isn't a gangland war. It's a diplomatic tussle between two sovereign states - or that's what Hun Sen, prodded by his "good friend Thaksin" - has made it out to be.
The ties between Hun Sen and Thaksin may be "personal". And few people have any doubt that there are lots of "personal gains" to be made by the two. But when Hun Sen decided to make his Thai friend - the subject of an extradition request from the Thai government - an official economic adviser, the Cambodian premier inevitably raised the bar to the uncomfortable level of a diplomatic showdown.
Thaksin, likewise, has "personalised" his whole battle with his own country. For him, it's all about "my personal assets" and "my popularity" and "my political future". It has never been about the Thai Rak Thai Party, or Palang Prachachon, or even today the Pheu Thai Party. It's all about Thaksin.
Everything being equal, and if logic prevails, Hun Sen should be protecting Cambodia's benefits and Thaksin should be primarily concerned about Thailand's interests. How, then, do you explain the fact that Hun Sen and Thaksin are now on the same side in the battle against Thailand?
The only explanation, however implausible, is that these two remarkable politicians seem to think everything is "personal" in politics. In other words, for them, the line between national interests and personal benefit is always blurred - and with staggering political control, they might have somehow convinced themselves that the whole country's resources are, or should be, under their personal jurisdiction.
That's where Hun Sen's hubris lies. He probably thinks he could wage a "personal war" on behalf of Thaksin without placing his country's interests at risk. What's more, he might even think that if he could put Thaksin back into power in Thailand, the latter would be at his beck and call. Thaksin would become his personal running dog.
That brings me to the second big riddle: Some of Thaksin's lieutenants are beginning to wonder whether Hun Sen is playing a dangerous game. There must be something much more menacing than meets the eye. These aides simply can't believe the Khmer premier can do anything straight. Hun Sen's vigorous public stand to defend a neighbouring country's fugitive ex-premier is simply too good to be true.
Some of Thaksin's aides are asking: Is it possible that Hun Sen has in fact colluded with Abhisit to ensnare Thaksin into Cambodia so that he can detain the former Thai leader and then deliver him to the Thai government?
I must confess, I am not sure whether to believe the two theories - or to take the first seriously and dismiss the second out of hand.
But since I subscribe to the adage that "birds of a feather flock together", I am tempted to think perhaps both myths may be right. Or both could be wrong … which means that since both men are basically after personal benefits disguised as national interests, the possibility of mutual back-stabbing and betrayal at every turn can't be ruled out at all - not until Thaksin leaves Phnom Penh safely, that is.
But then, if you think the second story is preposterous, you would have to say the same about the first.
These are absurd times, after all.
4 comments:
Eh Mr.Suthichai Yoon!!
Why you made so complicated statement for Ki-reader like this. Are you phylo or foolish..! why dont you go strait to your point what you are going to express? why you put many crazy thought while our reader have to time to read yours?...
Khmer
Jungle man hun sen considers cambodia his private property . He puts personal hatred of abhisit over national interests.
Why doen(t he do the same when vietnam steals cambodian land?
About time the thais topple him and we have a change in government.
You are correct Khmer (11:08 AM)
Because of my poor English, Suthichai Yoon's sentences are too difficult for me to understand his point.
If I'm not wrong he's trying to explain that Hun Sen is going to arrest Thaksin for Abhisit. Or Hun Sen and Thaksin are both self-minded take national interest as personal.
Whatever you think, to me Hun Sen KOs Abhisit. Now I'm counting to 8 but Abhisit doesn't seem to make any response.
I believ that it will take Abhisit and his team at least a week to take further step while Hun Sen already prepared for all kind of responses.
I hope Abhisit will learn this lesson, but anyway until then Hun Sen going to give another lesson in a day or two. Wait and see!
its a great posting thanks for sharing this with us.
Post a Comment