21/11/2009Bangkok Post
As the Thai-Cambodian media skirmish continues, Thai executives are starting to fear their operations will suffer.
Gamblers are staying away from casinos in Koh Kong and Poipet, while tourist numbers are on the slide. Kasikorn Research Center said the escalating tensions could affect businesses and populations on both sides of the border.
The conflict between the Thai and Cambodian governments recently reached a new and alarming level when both countries withdrew their ambassadors after Cambodia named fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra as an economic adviser and refused to extradite him when he visited the country.
But the Thai-Cambodian border remains open so the border trade, which accounts for as much as 80% of bilateral trade, continues as usual.
If the conflict is quickly resolved without either side resorting to force, trade will not be disrupted, said K-Research.
Even a temporary border closure, similar to that caused by the earlier Preah Vihear temple dispute, would only have a limited impact, the researchers said. But a prolonged closure would inevitably damage trade, causing Thai exporters to lose their share in Cambodia's market.
Thai exports to Cambodia last year were worth 67 billion baht, while imports from Cambodia were only 3 billion baht.
Thailand's trade surplus reflects Cambodia's inability to supply its market's demand, while Cambodian consumers are accustomed to imported Thai products such as sugar, beverages, cosmetics, soaps and related products. The Cambodian business sector also relies on imported processed oil and cement.
Thailand is currently the largest exporter to Cambodia, supplying 23% of its imports, followed by Vietnam with 17% and China with 15%.
Like Thailand, Vietnam benefits from close proximity with Cambodia, with significant border trade. Vietnam's exports to Cambodia have soared from US$178 million in 2002 to $1.43 billion last year. The country is now competing directly with Thailand in oil, sugar and cement.
Chinese goods, currently in third place, also have good opportunities for growth due to the strength of the Chinese economy and the development of the logistics system linking China and Asean.
But Cambodia would also face losses from this scenario. Materials and intermediate goods from other countries for its production sector would likely have higher prices due to the logistics costs. Similarly, Cambodian consumers would likely have higher living costs.
Gamblers are staying away from casinos in Koh Kong and Poipet, while tourist numbers are on the slide. Kasikorn Research Center said the escalating tensions could affect businesses and populations on both sides of the border.
The conflict between the Thai and Cambodian governments recently reached a new and alarming level when both countries withdrew their ambassadors after Cambodia named fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra as an economic adviser and refused to extradite him when he visited the country.
But the Thai-Cambodian border remains open so the border trade, which accounts for as much as 80% of bilateral trade, continues as usual.
If the conflict is quickly resolved without either side resorting to force, trade will not be disrupted, said K-Research.
Even a temporary border closure, similar to that caused by the earlier Preah Vihear temple dispute, would only have a limited impact, the researchers said. But a prolonged closure would inevitably damage trade, causing Thai exporters to lose their share in Cambodia's market.
Thai exports to Cambodia last year were worth 67 billion baht, while imports from Cambodia were only 3 billion baht.
Thailand's trade surplus reflects Cambodia's inability to supply its market's demand, while Cambodian consumers are accustomed to imported Thai products such as sugar, beverages, cosmetics, soaps and related products. The Cambodian business sector also relies on imported processed oil and cement.
Thailand is currently the largest exporter to Cambodia, supplying 23% of its imports, followed by Vietnam with 17% and China with 15%.
Like Thailand, Vietnam benefits from close proximity with Cambodia, with significant border trade. Vietnam's exports to Cambodia have soared from US$178 million in 2002 to $1.43 billion last year. The country is now competing directly with Thailand in oil, sugar and cement.
Chinese goods, currently in third place, also have good opportunities for growth due to the strength of the Chinese economy and the development of the logistics system linking China and Asean.
But Cambodia would also face losses from this scenario. Materials and intermediate goods from other countries for its production sector would likely have higher prices due to the logistics costs. Similarly, Cambodian consumers would likely have higher living costs.
3 comments:
It sounds like a deja vu.
Vietnam now takes a strategic approach to manipulate Cambodia's leader and remotely Thailand's leader. However, Cambodia repeats her history of the 60's as she serves as the strategic pawn for Thaksin Shinawatra to claim back his power. This will be a disaster for Cambodia and Thailand. You all know who wants to benefit from this strategy at the end if Thaksin Shinawatra regains his power.
I feel sorry for both Cambodia and Thailand's leaders who do not get a big picture from this trap: one is rustically self-made man, and another urbanely Oxford-educated man.
Anyway, Cambodia has nothing to gain from this short term battle against Thailand. It is not too late to devise a plan together with Thailand to consecrate and protect this holy place before we focus on the economic and social development.
Do not let the sad history of Cambodia repeat again.
It the economic trade going sours forever then the riches in Cambodia will suffer the most. They have been enjoyed with Thais products/goods for years and these products/goods cannot simply replace by products/goods from Vietnam- they are bad quality.
I mean If the economic.....sorry
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