Thaksin provides Democrats unexpected ratings boost

12/11/2009
Nattaya Chetchotiros
Bangkok Post

The government's popularity ratings may rise now convicted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra has accepted Phnom Penh's invitation to serve economic adviser. But it has no room for complacency.

The swing of public support is back with the government, which has for some time been trying to turn around its administrative mediocrity. Ironically, it has Thaksin to thank for the sudden boost.

Public opinion has swayed to the government's side because many people see that national pride was hurt by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's verbal hostility against the justice system which he blames for Thaksin's fall from grace after losing the Ratchadaphisek land trial.

The diplomatic friction has spurred a large number of people who were ''politically non-reactive'' into backing the government's retaliatory measures against Phnom Penh, which started with the recall of the Thai ambassador.

The government is reaping the windfall from Thaksin's refusal to heed his supporters' warning that landing the economic adviser post extended by Cambodia would have a far-reaching backlash.

The appointment would touch off a nationalistic fervour, the supporters warned. Thaksin being seen as unpatriotic would jolt the support base of the opposition Puea Thai Party in the North and Northeast, the two regions which are key to the party's success in the next poll. That victory is crucial in securing Thaksin's return to power.

Despite the surge in popularity, it remains uncertain how the government can sustain the upward trend.

Political observers believe Thaksin has played his trump card as he is stepping up his campaign to heap pressure on the government, this time from outside the country. He hoped it would hasten the government's fall in coming months.

Puea Thai and some elected senators whose electoral support is sourced from political parties have also intensified the pressure on the government while the red shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, the pro-Thaksin fight ing wing, is mounting protests outside the parliament.

The red shirts have announced a protracted, anti-government demonstration in Bangkok later this month. It is predicted the UDD may be setting out to emulate its rival People's Alliance for Democracy's siege of Government House to incite a political gridlock and eventually cause the situation to come to a head.

If Thaksin's scheme is to battle the government from the outside in, it is not producing the effect he wants. It is true Thaksin's economic adviser appointment is the result of Hun Sen's long-held disgruntlement with the Thai government over the border dispute. But it is also undeniable that using a foreign hand to get at an opponent pushes the pendulum of nationalistic resistance against Thaksin and pours oil on the raging social divisions.

The diplomatic row with Cambodia is alleged to have been ignited by Puea Thai chairman and former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. Soon after the retired general's return from a recent working visit to Phnom Penh, Hen Sen shot his broadside at the government and made known his plan to make Thaksin an economic adviser.

Gen Chavalit also envisages a harmonisation of the strife-torn South. He has led a visit to the region and revived his old idea of establishing the special administrative zone called Pattani City encompassing the insurgent-infiltrated provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat. He has been accused of attempts to overshadow the government and his Pattani City initiative _ which was ironically shot down while he was deputy prime minister in the Thaksin government _ is criticised as a platform for the separatist insurgent movement to secede.

Gen Chavalit has been attacked over the vagueness of his idea which he contends would restore peace by giving the locals a fair degree of self-administration and better treatment from authorities.

It was becoming clear the government was not yet affected by the Cambodian relations spat or the Pattani City proposal. It remains a mystery as to why Thaksin did not decline the economic adviser job, which would have earned him admiration, if not praise, from the wider Thai public beyond his supporters. He is usually smart enough to realise when a U-turn will serve him best, which explains why many had been waiting with expectation for him to leave the Cambodia's economic adviser seat alone.

Thaksin made another blunder with his interview with TimesOnline in which certain things he was quoted as saying could border on lese majeste. Many pundits would hope that a former prime minister who has been the frequent target of lese majeste allegations would learn to watch his mouth.

Thaksin's questionable comments could have stemmed from his poor English, but his critics charge that it is unequivocally clear that he meant what he said.

The government was quick to contemplate applying the lese majeste law against anyone, most likely the Thaksin supporters, who reproduced the interview amid caution from experts who reckon the law could be interpreted as a tool to persecute political opponents.

However, government spokesman and renowned security academic Panithan Wattanayagorn has defended the merit of the law. He insisted that it helps draw a line which keeps politics out of the palace. The law deters acts of disrespect to the monarch as well as prosecutes those who defy it. The Justice Ministry is currently proceeding against offences associated with lese majeste.

The tension is expected to rise with the announcement by the anti-Thaksin PAD that it would hold a major gathering on Sunday in a show of force to protect the monarchy. The alliance has shrugged off claims that it was leaning towards the ruling Democrat Party and said it was an independent movement which harbours no fear of confronting the government if it mismanages the country.

The coming gathering, however, could be a test of the alliance's solidarity which it has to muster in order to counter the Red Shirts.

The PAD is losing trust in the Democrat Party, which it feels is being too soft on Thaksin. It has chosen to ignore accusations that it was whipping up a nationalistic craze. The alliance said the term was rooted in some academics' ignorance of the fact that few Thais love their country enough to be ''crazy'' over it over a short period of time.

The government, in the meantime, has taken the comfort in the thought that its popularity has shot up again. However, the next several months will be especially testing. The political war has not been won and it is plainly evident that it is too early to rest on laurels.

Nattaya Chetchotiros is Assistant News Editor, Bangkok Post and former President of the Thai Journalists Association.