Cracks appearing in Thai military?

Friday, 29 January 2010
By Martin Petty
Reuters

A grenade attack on the office of Thailand’s army chief this month is stoking fears of a worst-case scenario in Thailand’s political crisis – a possible fissure in the military along fault lines that have divided the country.

Analysts, diplomats and military sources say it is premature to talk of a split in Thailand’s powerful and politicized army but that festering ideological differences show signs of broadening in one of the most charged climates in decades.

A divide in an institution central to Thailand’s power structure would deepen uncertainty over the outlook for Thailand’s export-dependent $260 billion economy, Southeast Asia’s second-largest, and raise the prospect of instability in a country seen as a gateway to the region for foreign companies.

Large numbers of soldiers of lower ranks and some senior officers, analysts say, are sympathizers of Thailand’s rural, grassroots anti-government, red-shirted protest movement.

In contrast, many of the military’s top brass are at the other end of the political spectrum, allied with royalists, business elites and the urban middle classes, who wear yellow at protests and largely support the present government.

The red-yellow divide is growing increasingly intractable.

And Thailand’s markets remain vulnerable to a correction, after benefiting from waves of foreign money moving into the Asian emerging markets that rebounded first from the global crisis. The stock market is off its January highs but is still up around 85 percent from the lows it hit in November 2008.

“When there is chaos and the country is divided, people look to the military to be in control,” said a Bangkok-based security analyst, who asked not to be identified because discussions of the military are sensitive.

“But it’s the first time in a generation that we’ve seen military divisions like this. There’s definitely an ideological split. It’s unlikely there’s any danger just yet, but that all depends on where this crisis will go.”

The Jan. 15 attack on army chief Anupong Paochinda’s office – he was not there at the time – and the apparent attempt to cover it up, have eroded public confidence in the military, polls show. Although there were no injuries, the brazen attack was widely seen as a challenge to Anupong’s authority.

Rogue soldier

The authorities’ reluctance to arrest their prime suspect, a rogue major general openly allied with an anti-government movement, has raised questions about how the army perceives his influence among parts of the rank-and-file.

The infamous Khattiya Sawasdipol – a maverick, self-proclaimed warrior better known as “Seh Daeng” – is dismissed by his critics as a loud-mouthed attention-seeker. But he enjoys a cult-like following among some soldiers and has made bold public threats to Anupong, warning him of a “gang attack.”

Khattiya is also a close associate of exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, a twice-elected billionaire ousted in a 2006 coup and the assumed leader of the opposition Puea Thai party and the “red shirt” protest movement – both of which seek to topple Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s military-backed government.

“This government has survived because of the military,” added the security expert. “Without its support, it would have tanked.”

The military played a pivotal role in brokering the ruling coalition government to keep Thaksin at bay. But the six-party alliance is looking vulnerable, facing internal divisions of its own and lacking enough popular support to win an election.

That raises questions over what the military and its backers would do if the government falls and if Thaksin’s allies, who they have fought hard to sideline, wrestle back power through an election win for his Puea Thai party.

Convicted of graft while in self-imposed exile, Thaksin is very much back in the picture, forming a provocative alliance with neighbouring Cambodia’s prime minister, Hun Sen, and rallying supporters from just over the border.

Thaksin’s opponents say he is disloyal to revered 82-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Thaksin says his conviction was politically motivated and insists he supports the monarchy.

Adding to the combustible political mix is the question of succession of the ageing king, who has been hospitalized since Sept. 19, and whether an eventual change of monarch would lead to a change in the balance of power in the military, which has traditionally been closely aligned with the palace.