Tuesday, March 09, 2010

US ponders China's Southeast Asian rise

Mar 10, 2010
By Peter J Brown
Asia Times (Hong Kong)


The United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) last month held a lengthy hearing on China's activities in Southeast Asia and the implications for US interests in the strategic region. The USCC was addressed by five members of the US Congress, a pair of senior US government officials and 10 experts and came at a time the US has promised to re-focus its diplomacy towards Southeast Asia.

USCC commissioner Larry Wortzel emphasized China's rising economic influence in the region, noting that numerous China-funded resource extraction projects were underway "with the goal of fueling China's continued economic development". He noted that Beijing also provides low-interest loans to fund infrastructure projects, especially in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.

While China's economic overtures in the region are well documented, Wortzel noted that China has recently expanded its security interactions with Southeast Asia, including through arms sales and joint military exercises. "High-level military visits between China and Southeast Asia have been on the rise, as have port calls from Chinese naval vessels," said Wortzel.

The hearing followed a trip in December by USCC members to Taiwan and Vietnam, where discussions were held regarding China's growing presence in the region. While security ties are expanding, the USCC was frequently reminded in Vietnam that there was increasing anxiety in Hanoi about China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, where several regional countries have overlapping claims.

"As the Chinese navy improves its strength to include a possible aircraft carrier fleet in the near future, the balance of power in the region will swing strongly in China's favor,” said Wortzel. "Already some nations are beginning to react, as demonstrated with Vietnam's recently announced plans to purchase from Russia six advanced submarines and 12 fighter aircraft. The confirmed presence of oil and natural gas in the region only exacerbates this trend," said Wortzel.

US congressman Dana Rohrabacher, a ranking member of the House's Foreign Affairs Committee, was more outspoken in his criticism of Beijing's rising regional influence, referring to China as "a totalitarian country seeking to become a totalitarian empire [and] spreading its influence and domination throughout the region, particularly in Southeast Asia".

Of all the countries in Asia, "perhaps the most friendly relationship [China] has is with the gangster regime that now controls Burma [Myanmar]. China has armed the Burmese junta to the teeth and in exchange it has ripped off the Burmese people, taking their great natural resources," said Rohrabacher.

Ellen Frost, visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said Southeast Asian governments are keeping a watchful eye on China's growing military might. While they have been greatly reassured by China's recent behavior, some are still unsure of China's ultimate goals, she said.

"Older leaders remember the time when China was actively supporting insurgencies in their countries. Rather than seeking to build a coalition against China, Southeast Asian statesmen have opted to 'embed' China in organizations whose location and agenda are in their control," said Frost.

"They calculate that enmeshing China in a plethora of agreements and committees encourages peaceful and cooperative behavior and bolsters regional stability. But just to be safe, many ASEAN governments are reaffirming or strengthening their military ties with the United States." The Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Frost emphasized that ASEAN leaders are seeking to maximize their collective voice in the region and in the wider world. "They calculate that giving China a leading role in regional organizations makes it more likely that other powers will pay more attention to the region and engage with ASEAN countries on even more attractive terms," said Frost.

Double-edged economics
According to David Shear, US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, "It is clear that both [China] and the ASEAN countries see mutual benefits to be had from expanded trade," and, "China's economic ties to the region will likely grow further under the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement [CAFTA] that became effective [on] the first of this year."

Shear also contended that in the process "China has produced local economic dislocation and tensions for some Southeast Asian economies" and there is growing concern "that competition from low-cost goods from China could adversely affect their domestic industries". Shear noted that Indonesia has already called for a revision to the agreement due to those concerns.

While Southeast Asians "recognize big opportunities in China, they continue to see economic ties with the US and others as vital", said Shear.

China's total trade with the region reached US$193 billion in 2008, up from $45.5 billion in 2001. While Beijing's direct investment in the region still pales compared with the US and Japan, its direct aid has been considerably larger.

Beijing has put forward a $10 billion infrastructure investment fund to improve roads, railways, airlines and information-telecommunication links between China and ASEAN countries, according to ASEAN secretary general Surin Pitsuwan. Beijing has also provided a $15 billion credit facility to promote regional integration and connectivity, he said.

Chinese diplomacy, often referred to as "soft power”, has also emphasized cultural connections. For example, more Thai students - some 10,000 - now study in China than in the US. Shear noted that China opened its first Confucius Institute in Asia in 2004 and that today there are 70 across Asia and 282 globally. "There are 12 institutes in Thailand alone, and China recently opened the first institute in Cambodia," said Shear.

The competition for hearts and minds has also taken to the airwaves. While the US has long promoted Radio Free Asia and Voice of America radio programs in the region, China launched China-Cambodia Friendship Radio in December 2008. "The actual effects of China's efforts on local views of and sensitivities to Chinese interests remain an area of US interest," said Shear.

"It has been said that in order to pursue successful diplomacy in Southeast Asia, all you have to do is show up. This is too low a standard and this administration will do more," said Shear. He acknowledged that previous US presidents had missed Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits, secretaries of state had bypassed ASEAN Regional Forum meetings and senior US officials had not spent enough time tending to regional bilateral relationships.

"The [Barack] Obama administration's message to resolve this problem has been simple: we're back and ready to be actively involved," said Shear, noting that Washington intends soon to name a Jakarta-based ambassador to ASEAN and begin consultations on how the US can play a role in the East Asia Summit, a grouping of 16 countries in the East Asian region that meets annually.

Ernest Bower, senior adviser and director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies emphasized that "Southeast Asia wants and needs the US [to] step up its game and articulate a strategy to advance its interests in the region. Only then will Southeast Asia's atavistic hunger for balance be fed."

Bower said China is not perceived in Southeast Asia as "a very large, awkwardly ideological, self-focused, security concern to the north", but rather "an engaged and interested neighbor providing significant benefits in trade, aid, tourism and the promise of increased investment and prosperity".

"China has made it easier for Southeast Asian students to travel and study in China and is providing scholarships at several levels, including master's and doctorate degrees. Chinese policies toward Southeast Asia over the last 15 years have transformed from ideological to opportunistic and pragmatic," said Bower.

He said on occasion China has overplayed its hand to its disadvantage, including in the South China Sea or when it pressured the government in Cambodia to send Uyghur refugees back to China late last year.

"The region's leaders recognize these examples as the iron fist that flexes under the velvet glove of China's new diplomacy," said Bower. "Southeast Asia's primary concern, as it was 15 years ago, remains maintaining balance among the major powers ... Perhaps the most significant difference between China and the US in Southeast Asia is that China has a clear strategy for the region, and the US does not," he said.

Divergent diplomacies
Walter Lohman, director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation in Washington, noted key differences in how the US and China conduct diplomacy towards the region.

"You simply cannot understand ASEAN's decision-making process the way we learned it in school, with countries strategically seeking to maximize advantages without consideration for the domestic, sometimes personal, demands on leaders. The Chinese approach to economic diplomacy accounts for this dynamic in a way that ours does not," said Lohman.

"The US cannot replicate the Chinese effort in Southeast Asia. Obviously, American officials are accountable to the American people in a way that the Chinese are not to their own. We cannot structure trade agreements in ways that choose winners and losers by diplomatic or industrial policy imperative.

"The Chinese are also closer and have more diplomats to throw at ASEAN. We can do better than we are in covering ASEAN, but we cannot match the Chinese diplomat for diplomat, forum for forum," Lohman added, saying that the US should not "buck the current economic order", but instead "leverage" into it.

"If the Chinese want to invest in ASEAN's infrastructure, fine. The US should have relationships in the region that help ASEAN determine its priorities and voice its concerns. If Chinese multinationals want to invest in ASEAN, great. Work to bring them into compliance with US-friendly standards and integrate them into American supply chains," said Lohman.

"If there is to be more ASEAN-China trade, American companies ought to be invested in it on both sides of the border and integrated into markets back home. Fighting current economic trends undermines the credibility of our leadership."

Catharin Dalpino, visiting associate professor at Georgetown University, addressed Beijing's sub-regional strategies and how China's role in mainland Southeast Asia "is increasingly distinct from its relationship to maritime Southeast Asia".

"This is primarily a matter of degree rather than dramatic differences in Chinese policy toward the two sub-regions; however, China's greater focus on and penetration of the mainland has created a de facto separation," said Dalpino. "This growing edge in mainland Southeast Asia has not developed in a vacuum; it was facilitated by the unevenness of US policy toward these two sub-regions for several years and Washington's relative neglect of mainland Southeast Asia."

She noted, for instance, that "the alliance with Thailand has been on auto-pilot for several years".

"On a more fundamental level, younger-generation Thais do not grasp a rationale for the alliance relationship and point to the reluctance of the United States to offer bilateral aid to Thailand in the 1997 financial crisis and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which are remote to many Thais, as examples of the dissonance between the two countries," said Dalpino.

Bronson Percival, senior advisor at CNA's Center for Strategic Studies in Virginia, contended that "the US is well-balanced in Southeast Asia" and that it had consistently insisted that the "theme is not the US versus China in Southeast Asia".

"Moreover, the Obama administration has now reversed popular anti-Americanism during the [George W] Bush administration and the widespread perception of US neglect through several symbolic gestures, including signing ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. The US Pacific Command has built a dense network of military-to-military ties, particularly in maritime Southeast Asia," said Percival, who called for the US to "shift its focus in Southeast Asia from humanitarian issues such as Burma to critical security issues such as the South China Sea.

"We don't know if Beijing is launched on a process of 'nibbling imperialism' in the South China Sea, but preventing Chinese domination of this sea and maintaining free passage for US armed forces and for energy supplies is critical for US alliances in Northeast Asia and, indeed, for the maintenance of the entire US position in East Asia." he said.

Peter J Brown is a freelance writer from Maine USA.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

why not china is helping to develop these poor countries with low-interest rate loan. why can't the world follow china's example like this?

Anonymous said...

Yeah, while China is helping poor countries in Southeast Asia, the US is trying to ask Cambodia to repay the loan they gave to Lon Nol regime. Why should Cambodia pay the dang loan the US giving to its ally to fight the communist. The US lost the war. The money is gone. It is not fair to ask Cambodian to repay this old loan. If the US still insist that Cambodia repay the loan, Cambodia should ask the US to pay billions in damage for B52 bombs on Cambodia. How many lives and properties lost to this carpet bombing!

So if the US want to be friend with SouthEast asian nations, they should play nice. Forgive old loan and helping the poor countries to rebuild their infrastructure.

Anonymous said...

Its was the US that started all the problems in S.E.A back in the 60's/70's! Without vietnam war, and US' coupe, there would be no khmer rouge!

These big countrie like china, us, and russia don't play by the rule.

Anonymous said...

I hope that Cambodian politician understand the US Gov. attitude. The US never help you with their heart, they will help you only if there is some thing to gain, either vote in the UN or polical gain in the region.
Democratcy is just the words to cover up the bigger picture that they don't reveal to regular people. They don't play to loose, they play to win on any situation.
There is no way that Cambodian politician can match with them.
I am living in the US, I know, even the state Gov. don't even trust the Fed. Gov. So don't try with them, if you do, you will be in the loose, loose situation.

Anonymous said...

USA complains but does nothing.
USA should follow China because they burned Cambodia together years 1960-1970.

Anonymous said...

If the US wants to side with Cambodia, the US needs to take the evil elements out from Cambodia. Those evil elements are Hun Sen/CPP and Sihanouk.

If those two gangsters are in charge of Cambodia, the US won't get control of Cambodia. The US knows already that Sihanouk sided with China 100% whereas Hun Sen sided with Vietnam.

No way that the US can influence Cambodia. Hun Sen tries to cooperate with the US in some area to make sure the US is unhappy, but behind the close door, Hun Sen won't give damp with the US. Example the US provided Cambodia old used army trucks last year. Hun Sen laughed out loud of the US aids.

Anonymous said...

11:14 PM, i think u got great ideas, hmm, i think there is better solution. go to ICJ to sue america for their bombing in Cambodia claim more incentives to the destruction of their behavior. now there are thousands of tons (even millions, m not sure)in the eastern part of our country. hmm, this is a tragedy for khmer ppl to suffer from the destructive US-made bombsss. GOD CURSE America! its high time america to pay back!

Anonymous said...

Don't say China is helping you without any string attached. China is not stupid. China helped Khmer rouge to kill milliion of Cambodia. American tried to make democracy in Cambodia, but your king, Sihanouk, who helped the North Vietcong to win the war. That's why the US took Sihanouk out from power.

Don't blame the US who created that war and destroyed Cambodia. Blamed your stupid leader, the king, who helped to destroy it. If the asshole king did not help the Vietcong to fight American, we won't lost any land to Vietcong nowaday.

For the guy who said State governors don't trust Federal government. That governor won't get elected for the next term. You think your Hun Sen is better than the US. Why don't you go back to live in Cambodia if you're not please with the US? Did you remember your situation in the refugee camp to wish to come to the US? Now you turned your back to your master. Don't worry America will deport people who unfit like you back home.

I'm living in the US since 1981 and still please with American. I still support American policy and their government because I pledged to serve and protect American constitution during my swear in citizenship. So if you're American citizen, you ought to go back and read your responsibility.

Khmer in DC

Anonymous said...

You are completely right,
I don't ask you to hate USA,
I ask you to love USA,
I ask you to love Americans,
it's your country and your people,
when Americans killed Vietcons, Americans don't hurt Americans in USA,
when Americans bombed Cambodia, Americans don't hurt Americans in USA.

Anonymous said...

I think the U.S. should review their policy in the Southeast Asia Region, to expand their relationship with the ASEAN's countries. Special, they should assert the mandated to protection and assist the poor country like Cambodia. I believed, the U.S. can do it, if not China and Vietnam will step-in, and then the U.S. will lose their voice in the region.

Anonymous said...

America was once a great nation, rule by law but it has becomes a dens of thieves, Marxism, Communism and hater of the Constitution.
The current president acts a residing judge and disregard the Constitution.

I've been in America since fall of 1976. I could never understand politics until I started to listen to talk radios in the last 10 years or so. Since then America is not what it appears to be on the surface when it comes to government. I agree America is a great place for opportunities but communism is taking over rapidly by this current administration.

You know there is a May day coming up this spring at Lincoln Memorial to cry out for God's mercy on America? That is how bad America has gone bad from Christian world view. The foundation on which America was based upon is being knocked out to usher in the New World Order. The UN will take control of America and the Constitution is useless.

Poor Khmer in Wisconsin

Anonymous said...

I agree with your guy's comments above, China really done good jobs by helping poor country in South East Asia Nations, with low-interest loans, this is help Cambodia alot...don't be a stingy like US! China make a very smart moved these days and China will take over the world economy...

Anonymous said...

ECONOMY is everything!! you can't do anything else without economy...? if China control South East Asia, they will be super Power!

Anonymous said...

What Cambodia can get from the US during those years 70-75 ?
The destruction of the whole country is never been paying back by The US , instead the claim for Cambodia to paye back 300 millions.
How much, The yanks have ask Vietnam to pay back for their engagement from 60 to 75 ? Why They are not asking Vietnam to paye back ?

Anonymous said...

I am sorry for "Kmere in DC", please get more education. You have been here for so long and don't understand how democratcy work in the USA.

It is OK to disagree or critisize the goverment. No body is going to deport you if you are a citizen(I hope you get a citizenship). In democratcy world you can express your opinion or ideas without fear. You are not in Cambodia any more. It is encouraged to do so.

Let look at Cambodia history during the Viename war, the US support Lon Nol regime because they needed Lon Nol to help fighting North Viet army and Viet Cong not because the US care about Democratcy in Cambodia.

When Viet Nam invaded Cambodia, the US just stand there and watch because there was nothing in it for them. The US can stop them if they wanted it to. China invaded Viet Name in 1979 just to teach Viet a lesson for invading Cambodia.

If the US wanted SRP to win, SRP will win the election in Cambodia. But the question is what in it for them ????? The US can do a lots of thing in the world if they wanted to. If Exon find a big oil reserve in the gulf of Thailand, that maybe different reguarding US involment in Cambodia because the US need oil. But as right now, Cambodia has nothing to offer to the US that is why the US stand on the side line.

Mexico which is border with US is not a democratic country but the US don't care about that. If you pay attention to the US gov. and China right now you can see the tone is changing. China still is a communist country and US use to call them "Communist China" but the US don't do that any more. They drop the word "Communist" and just call "China" only.

You don't need to agree with Fed Gov. to get elected as Govenor and it is the fact. you can see in Calif. or Texas,....

I hope you understand.

Anonymous said...

I echo 4:35 AM comments.

Today America is under crisis. It economy is under water. US owes China over 1 trillion dollars and begs China to buy more of their treasury. US does not forgive debt to Cambodia not because of US does not have any money because of US wants to punishes Cambodia for not sending demining troops to Afganistan. US wants is worth their money for. Remember Mrs. Clinton said that she'll look into the debt while she visited Cambodia. Then unonimous request that Cambodia sends demining troops to Afganistan after. when Cambodia refused, US flated out wants the debt repaid. What's a coincident!

Nowaday, politician in US become more career proffesional rather than patriot or idealogy. Take a look around you who is on the bollots every times election comes. They switch from place to place and from state to state. I am tired of their promises that has never delivery.

To make it shorts, we're all can not rely on them. This might be it, the end of empire.

Anonymous said...

Oh God! This is another cold war mentality! Why can the people of the world come together and do something good for mankind? How about peace, harmony, prosperity, and advance the human culture to level of those being from outer space...I don't know what they called those being or Alien...maybe Martian from Mars or something like that.

Am I living on planet ape?

Anonymous said...

remember folks, democracy=dominated,so the american`s administration like to use that damn words ,inother to dominate the whole world.unfortunately,he couldn`t do that by himself,so to avoid manipulation he tries to call all the west europeans to join him.the reason that american`s government want the loan back from the cambodian`s government,because he loans billion dollars from china,during mr,w.bush`sadministration invaded in iraq.

Anonymous said...

For those Khmer-Americans who always blame America for what happened to Cambodia while failing the blame China, Viets, and KR perhaps you should renounce your U.S. Citizenship and move to where you originally belong. You disgrace your adopted country, the country which you swear under oath to protect and serve America when you become U.S. citizen. You bite the hand which feed you. Let's not forget that America save you from being killed by your own people, the Khmer Rouge. And if you hate Americans that much you have freedom of choice: move out of America.

Anonymous said...

Whatever. Sure the Communist Chinese are going to "help" all of ASEAN. Once they finish their stranglehold on the Mekong, you will all do what they say. All nations, almost by definition, do one thing: they look after their own interests. This goes for the US, Communist China, and Cambodia.

Anonymous said...

To 12:37PM

Oh please! Your patriotism is unquestionable and there is nothing wrong with that! But don't you think that Khmer-American as tax payer and law abiding citizen can at least express their view about certain American politic? This is just fucken politic and it is dirty, muddy, and filthy as hell! There is a pro and con to any politic! Who are you to say that Khmer-American have no right to discuss about American politic?

I am Khmer-American and any fool who want to burn down my million dollars mansion and they better think twice!

Anonymous said...

I agreed with 12:43 PM. Let's not forget that in 1970-75 war, with Chinese support, the Khmer Rouge (KR) won the war. After winning the war the KR killed 2M khmers. Despite the fact Chinese had influence over the Khmer Rouge at that time they did nothing to stop the killing. Not only the Chinese did not stope the kiling, they forced the KR to pay back the loan in the form of rice right after the war was over. Chinese action caused millions of Khmer people to starve to death. Whoever praise Chinese for their generosity need to back to do research and learn from the past.

Anonymous said...

1:17 PM,
I have never said that Khmer-American cannot talk politics. In your own words you always blame America for everything while you ignoring that China and Vietnam also play role in Cambodia destruction. I'm not denying that you are a taxpayer who contributes money to American economy but without a good heart from America you probably die in the hand of Khmer Rouge or starve to death somewhere in Cambodia already. And America can still survive without relying on tax money from a couple of us here. In fact, I know of some Khmer people who live and rely on welfare for 30 years already and still on welfare as of now. To me generosity play a role in American policy here. And in your case you always view America negatively.

Anonymous said...

competition will benefit cambodia.

Anonymous said...

To 2:06PM

I dare you to show me the real statistic number of the Khmer people who live on welfare in comparison to Vietnamese, Laos, and Hmong and other race.

You need to understand that there is a cause and effect to what is happening in Cambodia for the past 30-40 years! Yes...there are some truth to what you said about China, Vietnam and the Khmer involvements but if you trace the tragic Cambodian history back to square one and you will see a different picture! You need to remember that from the begin of time after Cambodia got her independence from France and Cambodia is a neutral country! Do you even know the definition of a neutral country mean? As a neutral country Cambodia should have no involvement in any war but why did Cambodia got involve in the Vietnam War? Can you tell me that?

Tell me who destroy Cambodian neutrality and put Cambodia on the path to war for the past 30 years? There is no free lunch in this world and even generosity come with a price!