By Robert Birsel
PHNOM PENH (Reuters) - Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's ruffling of Thailand with threats of "war" shows how a growing alliance with China is allowing him to stand up to his neighbor and, in the process, boost his credentials at home.
This week's deadly border clashes between the two countries' armies have put Thailand's government under domestic political strain and given Hun Sen a chance to score points at home without much risk to Cambodia's fragile economy.
Two-way trade with Thailand is on the decline and a continued flow of investment from China, South Korea and Vietnam has left the long-serving strongman Hun Sen with very little to lose as he seeks to embarrass Thailand by internationalizing the spat.
"Hun Sen realizes he doesn't need Thailand for very much. Strong ties with China and investors in East Asia, and good relations with Singapore, all leave him in very different position than in the past," said Michael Montesano, a research fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
"He has consistently since 2008 had the political initiative and outplayed Thailand at pretty much every turn. He looks very much in control and these confrontations at the border can only help him politically while indicating trouble in Bangkok."
The standoff -- which has killed at least 11 people and wounded 85 -- in disputed jungle surrounding the 11th century Preah Vihear temple, a symbol of Cambodian national pride, has complicated a political crisis in deeply divided Thailand.
OPPOSITION TO THAI PM
That might please Hun Sen, who has made opposition to Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's Democrat-led government clear over the past two years.
Ironically, Thailand's nationalist "yellow shirt" protesters reviled by Hun Sen because of their staunch anti-Cambodia stance and claims of Thai ownership of Preah Vihear, have now turned against their former ally, Abhisit.
Their protests in Bangkok, while small, come at a difficult time for the British-born, Oxford University-educated Abhisit, whose government has encountered two years of crippling, at times violent, resistance from another color-coded protest group, the "red shirts," and will likely faces a crucial election this year.
The yellow shirts say Abhisit's diplomatic stance toward Cambodia in recent months has resulted in a loss of Thai sovereignty. They're demanding he steps down.
In contrast, Hun Sen's tough stand against Thailand works in his favor domestically, where his blend of populism and nationalism has won his party a sizable parliamentary majority.
A severing of Thai-Cambodia trade ties would not make a huge dent on either country's economies.
Thailand's central bank says its $265 billion economy, Southeast Asia's second-biggest, would not suffer because exports to Cambodia were worth less than 1 percent of GDP.
Blossoming business with other rising economic powers in Asia will ensure Hun Sen's stance does little harm to Cambodia's economy, either. Its economy is worth a far smaller $10 billion, according to the World Bank, and is benefiting as China loses its cheap labor edge to frontier markets such as Cambodia.
"We trade a lot with Thailand. The question is, how easy is it to substitute that trade," said Chan Sophal, president of the private Cambodian Economic Association.
"The things we import from Thailand can also be imported from Vietnam, China, Malaysia or South Korea."
Thailand's economic involvement in Cambodia has slipped relative to China, Vietnam and South Korea since a bout of anti-Thai disturbances in 2003, when protesters torched the Thai embassy in Phnom Penh and attacked several Thai businesses.
RISING CHINESE INFLUENCE
In contrast to Thailand, China's influence and diplomatic clout over Cambodia has swelled significantly -- as has Hun Sen's confidence in his dealings with Bangkok.
Cambodia and China pledged in December to double bilateral trade to $2.5 billion in five years, driven largely by agriculture, mining and hydro power.
China promised a $300 million loan for construction of two national roads and an irrigation project in Cambodia, in addition to 12 other deals worth around $293 million, mostly infrastructure related.
Chinese investors are increasingly active in impoverished Cambodia, pledging to spend $8 billion in 360 projects there in the first seven months of this year, mostly in power and agriculture.
Beijing is also Cambodia's largest source of foreign aid, providing about $600 million in 2007 and $260 million in 2008, helping to build roads, dams and other infrastructure. China also gives military aid and has provided much of the arms currently being used at the Thai-Cambodia frontier.
In return, China's geopolitical footprint has grown larger and it now has staunch diplomatic support from Cambodia.
It defied international pressure by sending back to China 20 ethnic minority Uighur asylum-seekers in 2009 and has remained silent amid concern that Chinese dams are adversely affecting the flow of the Mekong river in Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam and could create serious food security problems.
South Korea is also a major player in Cambodia's economy, which saw double-digit growth for four straight years until the global economic crisis took its toll.
South Korea had Cambodian projects worth $1 billion approved last year, a sharp increase from the $120 million in 2009, and its stock exchange operator, Korea Exchange, is helping Cambodia set up a bourse, due to open this year. Vietnam invested $114 million last year and that is expected to rise in 2011.
In comparison, Thai investment shriveled 98 percent to just over $2 million in 2010, according to Cambodian figures.
Peter Brimble, an economist with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), said the Thai-Cambodia row would hurt those dependent on border trade, while tourism -- Cambodia's second-biggest currency earner -- would suffer as many visitors come via Thailand.
"For people along the border it would be disastrous," he said. "For both sides it's just bad PR (public relations)."
(Additional reporting by Martin Petty; Editing by Jason Szep and Jonathan Thatcher)
9 comments:
Nobody stop the Siem leaders from settle the border conflict through bilateral talk or negotiation! No body! No body! No body!
But the Siem leaders must understand that Cambodian leaders have a choice and can't be pressured into any bilateral talk or negotiation if they don't want to!
There are many, many, and many bilateral talks or negotiations done in the past between Thailand and Cambodia and it yield no positive result except military confrontation at the cost of human life! What the Siem leaders are demanding is the impossible! The Siem leaders have countless chances to settle the border disputed through bilateral peacefully but they say one thing and turn around using guns and mortars!
UNESCO has responsibility for world heritage not Thailand heritage! UNESCO can't be threaten by Thailand from doing the right thing from protecting world heritage!
UNESCO Director General Irina Bokova is doing the right thing by sending a mission to the temple!
To be honest cambodia doesn't even need Thailand nor do they need us! Talk about beautiful island's! You can't top Koh Rong island in Cambodia! It's too beautiful!
To compare Thailand to Cambodia is so ridiculous! Cambodia is the Afghanistan of southeast Asia! Cambodia emerge from war after war, and genocide and the Cambodia started from the year of zero in the early 1990! But given the time, Cambodia will one day catch up to Thailand!
Thailand can brag that their economy is $265 billion but the majority of the Thai people still living in third world condition!
Here is another dumb found research expert about cambodia and thailand.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/220864/pm-spurns-france-help-offer
Hun Sen is not going to gain anything from war between Khmer and Thai along the boder. I believe this researcher was on yaba or something .
2:47 PM
Cambodia doesn't need the US ? You are entitle to your own oppinion but your oppinion is showing ignorence and stupidity . Thanks to freedom of speach for allowing people like 2:47 PM to say something to make him look so dumb .
I can understand where Mr. Montesano and Mr. Brimble is leading to when it comes to wars between Cambodia and Thailand, but this is the new generations, a generation that understands how the world works and surely we will not behave the same as our predecessors in the past. We frankly understand how Super Power Nations work, thus we too, also like to play politics with the big boys such as US, England, Russia, Germany, France and China. If you give Cambodia enough chance we will rule that parts of the world again and we have Angkor to back us up of how Cambodia was a once Empire that ruled most of Thailand, Laos and Vietnam. This time we will make sure that we are not the type who will be kind to its neighbors. This time when we are ready and packed we will show the world of what Cambodia is made of. According to NASA, at the time of Angkor reigned, the City of Angkor perhaps was the largest City in the world prior to Rome and Europe. This alone would simply tells me that Khmer people are not ordinary species, but a species of wonders. Because of our kindness to our neighbors and they took advantage of our kindness toward them and it is our fault that we have allowed this bahavior to be apart of our ignorance. I believe history will repeat itself. Having said that, once the tide has turn, Thailand must be ready to sacrifice many lives. The next generation understands how goe politics work and we will also know how to play your dirty games professed by Super Power Nations.
We fully understood that there is nothing for free in this world and that everything must comes with a price and Cambodia has paid her due whic costed us over 1.75 millions of lives which puts Cambodia back at least 50 years behind everyone in that region and we will dedicate ourselves to make sure not to ever repeat this grandous mistake again. Mr. Montesa and Mr. Brimble, it is only money. Although Thailand might have a large chunk of GDP worth 268 billions, but they have not fought many wars like Cambodia. I live in US for more than 30 years and I am fully aware of how US Foreign Policy works and you can bet that should I be apart of this new generation I will bet my life that the New Era of Cambodia will never bow down to Thailand. I hope you both understand what Colonialism is all about. Because of Colonialism occured in that parts of the world, Cambodia has completely niave and never paid attentions of how it works, in this case it would be "divide and conquor". This strategy has worked before, but not now. People understands what hegemony is all about. It is about the new kind of slavery that ends in America but began all over the world. Under Samdech Hun Sen leadership, I can almost assure that this generation knows exactly what to do and how to play. If we can be used by Super Power Nations, why not learn to use them back at their own expenses? I told you pay back is always a bitch.
Thank you
X-Men
well, the way i see it, it is stupid thailand's fault for making enemies with cambodia. so, naturally, cambodia will turn away from them and court other nations out there! didn't they know that there lots of fish in the seas? go figure!
siem must stop making a fool of themselves, really! cambodia is not about thailan, you know! even we have our own agenda, too, really! thailand is stupid!
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