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By Martin Petty
"Hun Sen scores political points domestically by standing up to what he would like Cambodians to see as a bullying Thailand, as long as the military losses are small and the outcome is inconclusive. "
BANGKOK (Reuters) - A bloody conflict between Thai and Cambodian forces has added another twist to Thailand's political crisis, and not without benefit to Cambodian strongman, Hun Sen.
Regardless of which side fired first, the border battles have handed Prime Minister Hun Sen and his ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) a chance to score points at home by taking a stand against an eternal rival he accuses of flexing its superior military muscle.
On the surface, the latest flare-up is a fight over a stretch of border close to Tan Moan and Tan Krabey, two 12th century Hindu temples both sides lay claim to. So far, 18 people on both sides have been killed in 12 days of gunfights, grenades and artillery bombardments that have displaced 65,000 people.
Analysts say political factions on both sides of the frontier have something to gain from prolonging the fight and scuttling a fragile ceasefire agreed between the two armies.
The clashes have struck a chord with Cambodians and Hun Sen's efforts to internationalize the issue by calling for help from the United Nations, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the International Court of Justice have helped stoke nationalist fervour.
"This conflict is being played to the full extent by Hun Sen and with this tough stance he will seek to gain as much status as he can from this," said Ian Bryson, a Southeast Asia analyst at consultants Control Risks.
"The CPP government recognizes that the sovereignty issue is a vehicle for popularity that has almost become policy and gives it a mandate for its rule."
Conspiracy theorists suggest hawkish Thai generals in cahoots with conservative nationalists could be fuelling the conflict to delay an election expected by early July, or even to create a pretext for a coup, to prevent the opposition Puea Thai Party from forming the next government.
Thai officials reject that claim. Some privately point the finger at Hun Sen, suggesting it's in his interest to discredit Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva ahead of the election.
Hun Sen, 60, has made no secret of his annoyance at Thailand's heel-dragging on demarcating disputed stretches of their shared 800-km (500-mile) land border and 27,000 square km (10,400 sq miles) of maritime territory believed to contain offshore oil reserves. A joint border commission has carried out studies since 2000 but no agreement has been reached.
Neither has the former Khmer Rouge guerrilla sought to hide his loathing for Abhisit's Democrat Party-led government, which last week he called "thieves" and "terrorists."
TEMPLE TURMOIL
Under Abhisit, Thailand has sought to derail Cambodia's listing of a far more significant Hindu border temple, Preah Vihear, as a UNESCO World Heritage site. A 1962 World Court ruling awarded the temple to Cambodia but Thailand says the land around the ruins was never demarcated.
Clashes in that area from February 4-7 killed three Thai and eight Cambodian troops. There was also some fighting near this temple in the latest flare-up.
Hun Sen said last week he was willing to work with Thailand's "next government," interpreted as a show of support for Puea Thai, allied to his exiled friend and former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
But most analysts play down any Cambodian motivation to meddle in Thailand's internal crisis, despite Hun Sen's thumbing his nose at Abhisit by briefly hiring Thaksin as an economic adviser in 2009 and refusing to extradite him to serve a prison term for graft.
Thaksin also has much to lose by being seen as close to Hun Sen at this time, if nationalist sentiment rises in Thailand.
Thai generals point out that the fighting coincides with the promotion of Hun Sen's eldest son, Hun Manet, to a two-star general and deputy commander of the country's infantry in what many Cambodians see as a tentative step toward a political dynasty in a country run by the same man for 26 years.
With a doctorate in economics from Britain's Bristol University and having graduated from West Point military academy in the United States, many analysts suggest 33-year-old Hun Manet is being groomed as a successor and say the Thai conflict gives him a chance to assert himself within Cambodia's military.
Others say the clashes are helping to draw attention away from rising discontent in Cambodia over forced evictions to make way for development projects, labor and trade union disputes and tough laws virtually outlawing protests.
"The dispute, by fanning nationalist flames in Cambodia as well, distracts from other pressing problems," said Joshua Kurlantzick of the U.S-based Council on Foreign Relations think tank. "With Cambodia's domestic troubles unlikely to disappear, Preah Vihear probably will not either," he said in a blog post.
The issue is expected to be a hot topic at an ASEAN summit in Jakarta this weekend. Cambodia has rejected bilateral talks and is insisting on third-party mediation, a move that has riled Thailand and suggests to some analysts that Hun Sen's government is in no rush to find a solution.
"Cambodia's motivations are probably much simpler," Eurasia Group analyst Roberto Herrera-Lim said in a research note.
"Hun Sen scores political points domestically by standing up to what he would like Cambodians to see as a bullying Thailand, as long as the military losses are small and the outcome is inconclusive."
(Editing by Alan Raybould and Miral Fahmy)
27 comments:
I agree with Hun Sen regarding the Thai but don't forget about the yuon on the easternb order where they walk freely and occupy Khmer land.
It is a coincident for Hun Sen to promote his son is more likely. It is very clear that the war has been stem from the Thailand's side becouse of the Preah Vihear Temple has been put into a world heritage list by UNESCO.
Even Hun Sen has large liver just say" as large as a sky" he wouldn't dare to fight with a mighty military Thailand.
just another report to blame Hun Sen, and to support Thai invasion.
If this is the case of USA vs Thailand, what US will do?
Would be nice if Ah Hun Sen do the same on Vietnam territorial encroachment currently in progress. No only focus on Thailand unless he is blind! completely
1:57PM,
You Siem thugs actually believe your government propaganda reports? After all, every conflict/battle that flares up, the siem generals always..always say Cambodian fire first. What a bunch of liars with no personal concience.
The first day alone, there were at least 22 thai soldiers death. So don't give crap about these names. They means nothing to me. You and your crappy country have no credibility whatsoever.
Yeah, I agree with 1:57 PM.
Why no name of Cambodian soldiers ever reported like those in Thailand???
And how many Cambodian soldiers actually died?
Koh Tral Island must not be forgotten
By Ms. Rattana Keo
Why do Koh Tral Island, known in Vietnam as Phu Quoc, a sea and land area covering proximately over 10,000 km2 [Note: the actual land size of Koh Tral itself is 574 square kilometres (222 sq miles)] have been lost to Vietnam by whose treaty? Why don’t Cambodia government be transparent and explain to Cambodia army at front line and the whole nation about this? Why don't they include this into education system? Why?
Cambodian armies are fighting at front line for 4.6 km2 on the Thai border and what's about over 10,000km2 of Cambodia to Vietnam. Nobody dare to talk about it! Why? Cambodian armies you are decide the fate of your nation, Cambodian army as well as Cambodian people must rethink about this again and again. Is it fair?
Koh Tral Island, the sea and land area of over 10,000 square kilometres have been lost to Vietnam by the 1979 to 1985 treaties. The Cambodian army at front line as well as all Cambodian people must rethink again about these issues. Are Cambodian army fighting to protect the Cambodia Nation or protecting a very small group that own big lands, big properties or only protecting a small group but disguising as protecting the Khmer nation?
The Cambodian army at front lines suffer under rain, wind, bullets, bombs, lack of foods, lack of nutrition and their families have no health care assistance, no securities after they died but a very small group eat well, sleep well, sleep in first class hotel with air conditioning system with message from young girls, have first class medical care from oversea medical treatments, they are billionaires, millionaires who sell out the country to be rich and make the Cambodian people suffer everyday.
Who signed the treaty 1979-1985 that resulted in the loss over 10,000 km2 of Cambodia??? Why they are not being transparent and brave enough to inform all Cambodians and Cambodian army at front line about these issues? Why don't they include Koh Tral (Koh Tral size is bigger than the whole Phom Phen and bigger than Singapore [Note: Singapore's present land size is 704 km2 (271.8 sq mi)]) with heap of great natural resources, in the Cambodian education system?
Look at Hun Sen's families, relatives and friends- they are billionaires, millionaires. Where did they get the money from when we all just got out of war with empty hands [in 1979]? Hun Sen always say in his speeches that Cambodia had just risen up from the ashes of war, just got up from Year Zero with empty hands and how come they are billionaires, millionaires but 90% of innocent Cambodian people are so poor and struggling with their livelihood every day?
Smart Khmer girl Ms. Rattana Keo,
Var Kim Hong does recognize that Cambodia, if compared to the colonial Service Geographique de l’Indochine scale map 1/100,000 and the 1985 delimitation treaty, will loses 9,000 hectares; and compared to U.S Army Mapping Service scale map 1/50,000 with the 1985 Treaty, would lose about 7,900 hectares to Vietnam. This statement was confirmed by Var Kim Hong to Mr. Touch Bora Esq through a telephone conversation on 30 August 2002 at 4:30 p.m. (Sydney time), which Mr. Touch Bora Esq wrote in his letter dated on 9 September 2002 sent to Sam Dach Ta Noroudom Sihanouk concerning over border affairs.
In fact, the loss is absolutely more than the 1000 square kilometers stated by MP Sam Rainsy in his statement, if we add the size of the historical water of 30000 square kilometers awarded to Vietnam under the 1982 Agreement which has been into affect and now already become under the full control of Vietnam. And this would not be the last if the equidistance principle be used to delimit the maritime boundary, Cambodia will lose an additional area of sea and seabed measuring at least 860 square nautical miles from the Brevie Line to the north, analyzed by Mr. Touch Bora Esq or another 10000 square kilometers confirmed by Mr. Sean Pengse, the President of the Cambodian Border Committee Worldwide, which exclusively include another Koh Poula Wai to Vietnam added to the previous lost islands- Koh Tral (Dao Phu Quoc) and Koh Poulo Panjang (Dao Thu Chu).
This is why sVar Kim Hong said in front of Students´s Movement for Democracy (SMD), and Sam Dach Ta Norodom Sihanouk on 22 Janaury 2000 during our audience with him concerning the border resolution with Vietnam that; “If we want peace, we must sacrifice our flesh to the tiger.” The truth is discovered now that, “Sacrifice the flesh to tiger actually means cutting our land to the Viet.” This word was clearly spoken out from his mouth and there were Sam Dach Ta as witness and 31 members.
We must condemn this Var Kim Hong for his role in helping the traitorous regime of Hun Sen.
Smart Khmer Girl Ms. Rattana Keo,
Var Kim Hong does recognize that Cambodia, if compared to the colonial Service Geographique de l’Indochine scale map 1/100,000 and the 1985 delimitation treaty, will loses 9,000 hectares; and compared to U.S Army Mapping Service scale map 1/50,000 with the 1985 Treaty, would lose about 7,900 hectares to Vietnam. This statement was confirmed by Var Kim Hong to Mr. Touch Bora Esq through a telephone conversation on 30 August 2002 at 4:30 p.m. (Sydney time), which Mr. Touch Bora Esq wrote in his letter dated on 9 September 2002 sent to Sam Dach Ta Noroudom Sihanouk concerning over border affairs.
In fact, the loss is absolutely more than the 1000 square kilometers stated by MP Sam Rainsy in his statement, if we add the size of the historical water of 30000 square kilometers awarded to Vietnam under the 1982 Agreement which has been into affect and now already become under the full control of Vietnam. And this would not be the last if the equidistance principle be used to delimit the maritime boundary, Cambodia will lose an additional area of sea and seabed measuring at least 860 square nautical miles from the Brevie Line to the north, analyzed by Mr. Touch Bora Esq or another 10000 square kilometers confirmed by Mr. Sean Pengse, the President of the Cambodian Border Committee Worldwide, which exclusively include another Koh Poula Wai to Vietnam added to the previous lost islands- Koh Tral (Dao Phu Quoc) and Koh Poulo Panjang (Dao Thu Chu).
This is why sVar Kim Hong said in front of Students´s Movement for Democracy (SMD), and Sam Dach Ta Norodom Sihanouk on 22 Janaury 2000 during our audience with him concerning the border resolution with Vietnam that; “If we want peace, we must sacrifice our flesh to the tiger.” The truth is discovered now that, “Sacrifice the flesh to tiger actually means cutting our land to the Viet.” This word was clearly spoken out from his mouth and there were Sam Dach Ta as witness and 31 members.
We must condemn this Var Kim Hong for his role in helping the traitorous regime of Hun Sen.
Smart Khmer Girl Ms. Rattana Keo,
I am feeling so sad to read these posters didn't even read this article. If they did they would have replied to something else. Like many KI's visitors told me that KI has a lot of bashers and self promoters like Rat Keo who proclaimed to be a smart woman. If she is so smart then why she keep peeing all over the place that has nothing to do with this good article?
I am feeling so sad to read these posters didn't even read this article. If they did they would NOT have replied to something else. Like many KI's visitors told me that KI has a lot of bashers and self promoters like Rat Keo who proclaimed to be a smart woman. If she is so smart then why she keep peeing all over the place that has nothing to do with this good article?
Cambodian living inside Cambodia MUST stand up for them self. Sam Rainsy alone can't do so much. What are Cambodian people inside waiting for. Do something, uprising now, this is the best time for all of them to rise up. Don't you see Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and other countries. We Cambodian outside support you only if you all Khmer living inside to stand up against those corrupted government.
4:08 PM, are CPP and Youn who sell out Cambodia and all Cambodian people to Vietnam. That is why they hate Ms. Rattana Keo words that just only say the true of what happen to Cambodia.
Vietnam and CPP are not even tried to take Cambodia why do we khmer are tired to talk about their evil toward Cambodian people and Khmer nation.
4:22 PM
Tired not Tried ( Wrong spelling )
AH HUN SEN AH KBORT JEAT KAGN JAEH YOUN
AH HUN SEN AH KBORT JEAT KAGN JAEH YOUN
AH HUN SEN AH KBORT JEAT KAGN JAEH YOUN
AH HUN SEN AH KBORT JEAT KAGN JAEH YOUN
AH HUN SEN AH KBORT JEAT KAGN JAEH YOUN
AH HUN SEN AH KBORT JEAT KAGN JAEH YOUN
AH HUN SEN AH KBORT JEAT KAGN JAEH YOUN
AH HUN SEN AH KBORT JEAT KAGN JAEH YOUN
AH HUN SEN AH KBORT JEAT KAGN JAEH YOUN
AH HUN SEN AH KBORT JEAT KAGN JAEH YOUN
Kon Kmeng Naek Srae
It is a great and the same time difficult topic. The arm conflict between Cambodia and Thailand has drawn a great deal of attention amount analysts community. We have heard in the past few weeks lots of critics toward Thai military, and the messy Thai politics. And now, the finger is being pointed to the other side of the border. Actually the analysts have never forgotten PM Hun Sen of Cambodia, but they had touched him so lightly. However in this Reuters' article, the author tried to draw the attention toward him and his CPP. It can be to make the balance picture of the situation, not because of fact finding. Anyways, we might never know the exact cause of the fighting neither.
Whatever side the analysts have been taking, the basis of their reasons is the same. They look at the benefit that the player might gain from the conflict. When they see that Thai military might benefit politically or financially from the fighting, they think Thai military is the cause of the problem, similarly when they perceive that PM Hun Sen, his CPP or his Son Hun Manet would benefit, they point their figure at them.
After all, they are reluctant to accept the simple reason that cause this problem. The simple reason here is that Thai government doesn't respect the 1962 verdict of ICJ and uses military power to take advantage in negotiation table. It is unfortunately for the people of Cambodia that those threats give PM Hun Sen and his CPP a lot of political power.
2:46 PM
Your report on Thai soldier deaths are very organized. You can't expect something like this from the Khmer side, the most unorganized. Unless someone from the defense give us the numbers of Khmer soldier casualties, no one really knows yet. Just wait and see I guess.
Mr. Sam Rainsy and KI media must provide all Cambodian people about the documents and detail to prove that over 30 000Km2 lost to Vietnam by Treaties from 1979 to 1985.
Please Mr Sam Rainsy provides all the detail that Hun Sen with CPP Treaties from 1979 to 1985 result in lost over 30 000Km2 of Cambodia to Vietnam.
The next Thai govt,after Abhisit losing the election,Hun Sen will work with Thaksin.
Hun Sen thinks his best friend
will be next Thai prime minister.
So,Hun Sen is making war with Thai
to get his own credit and Thaksin.
The two leaders,Thai and Khmer,are
using soldiers and people for their
own political,potential benefits.
The Thai and Cambodia are war games
.Please both stupid leaders,don't
play with people lives just for power.
I am fully agreed. This is stupid wars. Only Hun Sen and Hun Ma Net win their goal to create nationalism and then they will win election again trade off with soldier and innocent victims life.
Foreign media! National soveriegnty is not a top policy for Hun Sen and the CPP. What happened with Thailand is a fake nationalism that Hun Sen used to distract Khmer from enormous land lost on the Eastern border, and gradually the lost of the whole nation to Vietnam. If Hun Sen is a true nationalist, why didn't he care about border lost to Vietnam? He did not care about land lost to Vietnam, in opposite, he helped Vietnam to encroach deeper into Khmer land. And when Khmer people protested about Vietnam encroachment, he did not help Khmer to solve the problem, instead he put them in jail. Is Hun Sen a real Khmer nationalist? Based on his actions, he is a true Yuon slave.
well dont fking Khmer have internet.....please tell this stuff to Khmer people in Khmer especially Phnom Penh...
4:22 PM
telling u to read this good article and start to reply to a correct subject and why is he or she is yuon or cpp? when your reply is not according to the article, what do you think other readers think of you? Dumb or stupid. Yuon never help to remind you to carefully read
and clearly understand what is going on in Cambodia and her aggressive neighbors, Yuon are always watching and laughing at Khmers and surely laughing at the stupid Khmer like you.
If some article that related to your post then it's ok but for few days you re-post same shit over and over again, you under estimate other Khmers that they are stupid like yourself, a braggart?
If you were to debate with real Yuon on the subject of this article, are you going to just throw it them like that or you are going to move your sleeve and start to be a real educated Khmer?
Observing may help you to gain wisdom than being a troll online like yourself.
4:38 AM
What a powerful and fluent in English you are.
8:58am
i found some of his typographical errors. may be he wrote fast.
11:15 AM
Give one example.
It's good to have more educated people like yourself.
War with Thailand is to scare and show Cambodian that power is belong to me. Anyone want to rule the country has to pass these weapons and uneducated soldiers.
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