God speed Yingluck Shinawatra

August 6, 2011
by Special Correspondent
Weekly Blitz

The third threat relates to the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck's elder brother, is known to have good relations with Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen who said the election outcome marked the start of "a new era of cooperation" and that differences between the countries would be resolved peacefully.

The People's Alliance for Democracy [PAD] has accused Thaksin Shinawatra of a conflict of interest over his relationship with Cambodia. As a result, any move by the Yingluck government on the border dispute will be under surveillance and criticism of the political opponents. In the other hand, neutral analysts are seeing a beginning of new era of better understanding with the neighboring nations under the leadership of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. They believe, Thailand believes in friendship while the political opponents of Shinwataras are willing to push this peaceful nation towards hostility and confrontation with the neighboring countries.

Yingluck Shinawatra is the first female Prime Minister of Thailand after a Royal command is issued for her to take up this responsibility. Of the 496 MPs who cast their votes in the 500-seat House, 197 abstained while three voted against the Yingluck bid.

The new Cabinet is shaping up, with Thirachai Puvanart-naranuban, the outgoing secretary-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission, likely to replace Dr Vichit Suraphongchai as the new finance minister.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is the younger sister of former Thai Prime Minister and business tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra.

As Yingluck government assumed office already, according to Thai news commentators, her government will be forced to reckon with problems that need to be solved immediately, including the rising cost of living, and inflation.

In July inflation rose 4% from a year earlier, driven by climbing food and energy costs. It was the fourth month in a row with inflation at 4% or more.

Rising pork prices, which have reached 170-180 baht a kilogramme in some areas of the country, have prompted butchers in Songkhla's Hat Yai district and Betong in Yala to stop working in protest.

This could affect the government's popularity, just as the Democrat party experienced when it failed to rein in cooking oil prices amid a shortage early this year.

The second threat concerns implementation of the policies which Pheu Thai promised during its campaign.

Although Prime Minister Yingluck has confirmed her party will carry out its promises, the question is how, and to what extent.

Two of the most controversial policies - raising the daily minimum wage to 300 baht and paying new university graduates 15,000 a month will be difficult to implement. It will also have to deal with its promise to develop a new city by reclaiming land from the sea.

The third threat relates to the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck's elder brother, is known to have good relations with Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen who said the election outcome marked the start of "a new era of cooperation" and that differences between the countries would be resolved peacefully.

The People's Alliance for Democracy [PAD] has accused Thaksin Shinawatra of a conflict of interest over his relationship with Cambodia. As a result, any move by the Yingluck government on the border dispute will be under surveillance and criticism of the political opponents. In the other hand, neutral analysts are seeing a beginning of new era of better understanding with the neighboring nations under the leadership of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. They believe, Thailand believes in friendship while the political opponents of Shinwataras are willing to push this peaceful nation towards hostility and confrontation with the neighboring countries.

Harsh critic of Yingluck Shinawatra government, Thailand's influential daily newspaper, The Bangkok Post is trying to give opinion quoting "political observers" saying, Yingluck government will last 3-6 months in power. Bangkok Post commented "Feminists and women's rights advocates have asked whether the 44-year-old sister of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra can do anything apart from enhancing her looks and being mother to a nine-year-old boy."

On the other hand, political analysts on Asian affairs believe that, any early collapse of the Yingluck Shinawatra government will certainly push the fate of democracy of Thailand towards severe uncertainty. Thai democracy is already under the heavy influence of the shadow ghost of military as well as some other elements.

Female leaders always come by accident. Corazon Aquino, Benazir Bhutto, Khaleda Zia, Sheikh Hasina, Sirimavo Bandaranaike, Chandrika Kumaratunga or even Aung San Suu Kyi - you name it. Female leaders rise to power rarely in normal circumstances. Something bad needs to happen to their loved ones to act as an unlikely but effective catapult. Thailand's Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is no difference. She is young, pretty, fashionable and a bit shy. She virtually cat-walked her way through the election campaign, perhaps talking less than her big brother did from exile over the past two months. But that's probably the point. Yingluck's biggest political asset, at least for now, is that she seems non-confrontational by almost all accounts.

Whether her family name - the only thing confrontational about her - will destabilise her government and cut short a fairy-tale political journey remains to be seen. But her "Shinawatra" surname is a big deal, something so controversial it has all but overshadowed her being a woman, young and virtually clueless about politics.

We have heard different stories concerning her business profession. Admirers talked about a decisive boardroom executive who was "soft on the outside but tough within", who listened to various thoughts before making her own decisions. Given the Shin Corp Empire's standing before the political hurricane blew it away, it would be hard to argue against Yingluck's pre-politics record.

Detractors quipped that it was harder to fail than to succeed at Shin Corp when it was at the peak of its business and political dominance. Yingluck, they claimed, could practically sleepwalk through management and still grab top executive awards.

Arguably, the same could be said about her dreamlike election campaign. But again, there are two ways to look at it. Either she was helped by big forces already in great momentum and all she had to do was wave and smile, or her non-provocative waves and smiles helped put Pheu Thai back in power today. Would it have been this smooth with Pracha Promnok or Mingkwan Saengsuwan? It's a question worth pondering, but they are men, to begin with.

The good news is, Yingluck obviously has strong political assets. A humble, female character in the spotlight against the backdrop of cut-throat politics threw enemies and rivals off guard. Pracha or Mingkwan would have been left nearly dead by the "amnesty" issue, whether Pheu Thai had won the election or not.

Prime Minister Yingluck's first challenge is to prove her independence, and this is not a feminist phrase. Too much shadow of her big brother and her dream political journey can easily turn into a nightmare. As Thailand's first woman leader, she will come under close watch, whether that's fair or not. But as Thailand's first woman leader who is Thaksin Shinawatra's sister, scrutiny will duly come. In Asia, female leaders in particular, who step into politics due to any extra-ordinary reason or circumstance become quickly unpopular, when they try to apply their emotions too much in politics instead of brains and logics. In Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto precisely realized one fact that, too much quoting of her father and his "greatness" was no blessing for her to be in popularity anymore. In Bangladesh, two of the female leaders, who also basically are in politics as heirs as yet to realize this reality and are pushing the very democracy of the country into total uncertainty. We want to believe that Yingluck Shinawatra will be an exception. She will stand-up much as the leader of the Thai people instead of being a sister of someone.

Bangladesh and Thailand has extremely cordial friendly relations for decades. And very naturally, we always hope a stable democracy in that friendly nation. While greeting Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra with garland of flowers, we also wish her all the best. Congratulations Prime Minister Yingluck and people of Bangladesh wish your grand success in your new position. We also believe, under your dynamic leadership, relations between Dhaka and Bangkok will witness newer and wider cooperation. God speed Yingluck Shinawatra!